Election Logic

Politics is applesauce.
Will Rogers

You almost need to be a lawyer to figure out what’s going on with the District 1 City Council race. As near as we can figure out the major issue regarding Alan Gerson’s spot on the ballot is that Board of Elections submissions -- which involve the lists of signatures needed in order to be placed on the ballot – are a big deal. There really can’t be any wiggle room. All of the information has to be in a specific form, the “cover sheet” has to be correct, and the verifications, which attest to the correctness of the signature submissions, must conform and be signed off by one person. When details go astray, so goes the logic, many more sub Rosa problems may lie beneath. Almost no one thinks that Alan Gerson has supplied false documents.

The dilemma, which the Gerson campaign currently is dealing with, is the fact that a series of errors – not seemingly egregious to the layman – has placed his submission of signatures in jeopardy. The courts are likely to rule in Gerson’s favor due to the fact that he is an incumbent and, popular or not, the mistakes do not appear to be critical. The whole process was sloppy and it was compounded by mistake after mistake.

Both Margaret Chin and Pete Gleason have understandably made an issue of the sloppiness – which, if you are trying to make a political point – underscores a certain inattention to detail at the very least.
Pete Gleason has come out swinging on this issue because he himself has been held up to a high standard of professionalism and this issue has proven his issue with Gerson’s candidacy. His criticism of Gerson has, among other things, pointed to a lack of detail, clarity, interest consistency and follow through – in representing District 1.

That’s political speak for Gerson having let down SoHo.

City Council Heat

In politics, absurdity is not a handicap.
-- Napoleon Bonaparte (1769 - 1821)


The City Council races for Downtown continue to heat up. Christine Quinn appears to be on track to be re-elected in her district while Alan Gerson is having his problems. Among the contestants in District 1 are incumbent Alan Gerson, Pete Gleason and Margaret Chin. While speculation has the contest in a three-way tie, Gerson is losing ground in the Village, SoHo and Tribeca to Gleason and in Chinatown to Chin.
It’s difficult to make a prediction but the latest technical difficulty on Gerson’s part is the fact that the Board of Election has removed him from the ballot for the upcoming Primary due to questionable signatures. It is likely that these are just technical problems that will be overcome but it indicates, if nothing else, a certain lack of attention to details.

Gleason lost no time in making comments on the situation.

Political Reflections

Don't ask me nothin' about nothin', I just might tell you the truth.
-- Bob Dylan, "Outlaw Blues," 1965

The races which are generating the most heat are City Council districts one and three, District Attorney, and Mayor.
Tony Avella and Bill Thompson are both running against the proverbial 1000 lb. gorilla – Michael ($20 Billion) Bloomberg.




While there is a lot to say, term-limits and cash, carry most of the weight in terms of who wins. Avella has come out on the right side of many community issues and has manned the barricades with activists. Thompson has waged a tireless and consistent campaign to make a difference between a city government that takes residents for granted and a populist style of governing. An upset victory is NOT impossible.

The District Attorney race has Leslie Crocker Snyder on one side of the fence – a conservative who previously supported the death sentence but who now rejects it. She is running based upon her experience as a judge. Running against her is Cyrus Vance, Jr. and Richard Aborn, a liberal and a progressive candidate.

While this race is over a very powerful position, thus far it has not generated the kind of enthusiasm one would have expected. They may soon change, however.


Jim McManus, recently split with Carlos Manzano on ideological grounds, heavily supports Snyder – to the chagrin of Bob Morgenthau, the current D.A. Morgenthau is believed to support Vance and is miffed about McManus’s endorsement. But, politics is both practical and ideological. Remember, McManus supported Suozzi over Spitzer and enjoyed the last laugh when he abdicated.
Aborn has gotten the support of downtown’s D.I.D., which came out strongly in favor of his candidacy – twice the vote earned by either Snyder or Vance. Yet, Vance has recently begun to make his voice heard in a barrage of press releases.

The City Council races are a study in pure political gamesmanship. A great deal of animosity still follows Chris Quinn around over what is perceived as her rejection of the community – over such issues as the term-limits debacle, Trump SoHo and the Sanitation Garage. While she is a superb politician, the danger is that she may be viewed as narcissistically self-involved rather than the shrewd operative whose expertise inures to the interests of the community. A little better PR and a few overtures in a less defensive way would, without doubt, give her the race. Right now, Yetta Kurland is pulling up strongly behind her and has a vociferous following.

McManus supports Quinn partly because he handed her the Speakership, and partly because he thinks she will be the winner. D.I.D. chose Kurland – but originally chose Quinn, only to lose to Kurland in a second vote. Kurland’s second vote support came from cross endorsements from other candidates (notably Derr) who could not win and threw their support to her.


The real danger here, for Quinn, is that losing popular support while winning most of the clubs is a tricky road to success. Kurland is seen as inexperienced while Quinn is seen as aloof within her own district.

The Gerson, Gleason, Chin race is another kind of race entirely.






The incumbent, Alan Gerson, has been seen as coasting for the last 8 years, having frittered away the opportunity to benefit from the 9-11 momentum for downtown, and having learned to rally forces only when faced with the prospect of being out of a job. Even his support of term-limits has not earned him the benefit of a Bloomberg windfall. After nearly losing his own club’s endorsement, he managed to lose the D.I.D. endorsement to Pete Gleason, a former firefighter, police officer and attorney.
Between pushing and shoving, charges of an absentee performance, numerous ploys that allegedly involved stacking D.I.D. and rumors of helping to arrange shills to split the primary vote – Gerson’s re-election attempt is generating more heat than anyone expected.
As of this point, Margaret Chin (who has been suspiciously thwarted in getting media coverage in lower Manhattan weeklies) claims to already have several thousand votes and is already over the top with regard to qualifying for matching funds. With an expected turnout of less than 15,000 voters, a woman with strong community support and growing non-Asian interest is potentially formidable.
Pete Gleason has pulled up strongly and generated new support in the Village, SoHo and Tribeca, which formerly went to Gerson. Interesting letters have been popping up like crossed swords in the campaign controversy over qualifications and background – ergo suitability for this job. The Downtown Express published a missive from Mr. Love (scroll to bottom of link page), a Gerson supporter and Jeanne Wilcke as well as others, have answered it.

We’re in for a hot summer!

The Changing of the Guard

If we don't change direction soon, we'll end up where we're going.
-- Professor Irwin Corey (1914 - )

Last month Community Board #2 held an election for its new leadership. Brad Hoylman relinquished his post as Chair of the Board and mostly new leadership has taken over. Actually, a few existing members of the Board simply move over a seat and increase their visibility as well as their stature. There were no floor fights and the slate was elected without a negative murmur. It’s a far cry from some of the contentious, dirty tricks, anonymous-letter, days of the past at CB2. While it’s probably a good thing, it does take just a little of the excitement out of community politics. But, so be it.
The slate is as follows:

Jo Hamilton - Chair

Bo Riccobono - First Vice-chair

Sheelah Feinberg - Second Vice-chair

Susan Kent - Secretary

Elaine Young - Assistant Secretary

Amanda Kahn Fried – Treasurer

All are qualified and well-intentioned members of the community and will no doubt do an excellent job. At one point, Jo Hamilton had stated that she was committed to carrying on the work that Hoylman had been doing. Nothing she has said recently has indicated anything different in her attitude.
To the extent that Community Boards are relevant to the wishes and needs of the community’s residents – and, not simply a political reward for knowing the right people – we can hope that CB2 moves in the direction of greater cooperation with Boards #1, #3 and #4 on a number of issues – not the least of which is greater protection from pollution, removal of unwanted billboards, protection from traffic in our crosswalks, better control over Con Ed and maintenance repairs during evening hours, and a more assertive stance to protect tenants from landlord harassment. Not only do rent controlled and stabilized tenants suffer – but, market-rate tenants suffer a great deal as well. When you have a two-year lease and pay high rent and yet you cannot complain about such things as lack of heat or mold growing in your bedroom, the fear of not having your lease renewed is a serious problem. The silent tenant is often an abused tenant. And, abuse of tenants is a growing problem in New York City.

The Community Boards need to recognize that there are problems that they need to solve by working together.

The Upset

If you’re going through Hell, keep going.
--Winston Churchill


In a stunning upset endorsement vote, D.I.D. chose Pete Gleason for the 1st Council District candidate Tuesday night.
In a vote that initially gave Gleason the endorsement by only 2 votes, after a recount he clearly won by 64-52. This places him in a position to seriously challenge Alan Gerson’s bid for a third City Council term despite numerous speakers touting his record. Apparently, that support for Gerson fell on deaf ears.

And, there was a subtext to two other races which were initiated against two of D.I.D.’s popular District Leaders, Adam Silvera and Jean Grillo. Both were easily re-elected despite attempts at club stacking and political threats. While David Reck was also re-elected, he received a very high number of "No-endorsement" votes, despite the fact that he had no opponent.

The other contentious races had Yetta Kurland seriously challenging Speaker Chris Quinn. Quinn lost in a second vote for the City Council seat, bolstered by 11th hour maneuvers by Derr and Fouratt who spoke during the re-vote from the floor. Since Quinn actually won the vote but wanted a greater clarification of support, the real question is why Fouratt (who essentially did no campaigning according to Sweeney) received 10 votes -- and why both he and Derr threw their votes to Kurland in tendem so expeditiously. So, while Quinn actually won the endorsement vote, the re-vote (which Quinn pressed for) was changed by multiple last minute endorsements for Kurland. There have been rumors that this was engineered and augmented through the use of palm cards and a previous strategy by anti-Quinn forces. Hey, that's politics! Kurland is now the D.I.D. candidate. However, Quinn did garner the outright endorsement of the Stonewall Democratic Club.

Cy Vance with 17 votes and Leslie Crocker Snyder with 18 votes were both heavily outvoted by Richard Aborn for District Attorney. While Vance has had some campaign mis-steps, the Snyder results were surprising to some in view of her strong showing in the last general election when she ran against Morgenthau. While Vance consented to be interviewed in the SoHo Journal, Snyder declined the invitation citing legal complications. Aborn has not yet responded to a request.

The Hot Seat

I do not care to belong to a club that accepts people like me as members.
-- Groucho Marx (1890 - 1977)


The major candidates have been making the rounds downtown and of the offices that are up for grabs, only the District one City Council seat is hot and about to get much hotter.
Alan Gerson is running again since term-limits were extended, allowing Bloomberg to again run for Mayor. More than a few people had difficulty trying to figure out why Mike did not simply hold another referendum considering the fact that he really had the support of many New Yorkers.

The politics of the decision to take the City Council route to approve his third term run may never be fully understood – given the fact that his very well paid campaign staff had to have known that this method of succeeding opened a chasm between the Mayor and the people, perhaps unnecessarily.
The real damage, however, was done to politicians who were supporters of the Bloomberg plan and which also benefited themselves. The Mayor will survive very well, thank you. That’s not necessarily true for those who supported the plan in the City Council against the wishes of many in the community.

This brings us to the City Council seat race, which Gerson currently holds. The main challengers to Gerson are Pete Gleason and Margaret Chin. Chin is an activist whose greatest support comes from the Chinatown community and Gleason’s strength is stronger with unions, firefighters, police as well as growing sections of Greenwich Village and SoHo.
What is significant is that Gerson only narrowly won the support of VRDC, his own Democratic Club on a second ballot. For a challenger, Gleason clearly has turned the tables on Gerson and the upcoming D.I.D. vote may be a significant indicator of which direction this race may go.
Chin needs to break out of the perception of provincialism and Gleason needs to raise a lot more cash. If these things occur, it may become a wide-open 3-way Council race.

Imagine

If I'd written all the truth I knew for the past ten years, about 600 people - including me - would be rotting in prison cells from Rio to Seattle today. Absolute truth is a very rare and dangerous commodity in the context of professional journalism.
-- Hunter S. Thompson


The people shall not be deprived or abridged of their right to speak, to write, or to publish their sentiments; and the freedom of the press, as one of the great bulwarks of liberty, shall be inviolable.
-- James Madison




Imagine that you are a journalist in a country where the ruling party and its government does not tolerate criticism or a difference of opinion. Or, were you to voice opposition to the government, you would be killed or destroyed – using any means possible. That the focus of the government attacks may be couched in some other mainstream, popular vehicle, permitting vast media resources (including PR and phony leaks) to create an adverse frenzy is merely part of a strategy. Think about reporters waiting for you at every turn, walking around your apartment and offices, asking accusatory questions based upon innuendos and lies to sell tabloids and gain viewers. Almost any excuse can be used by a government to make you, yes you, a criminal to be pursued.
What is widely viewed as legitimate business practices, can, with a twist of focus by a government official, become an illegality.

In Russia, several journalists and human rights advocates have been the focus of convenient, high profile murders that were never solved. Court cases pointed accusatory fingers but juries have acquitted them – as arranged. In Iran, North Korea and other countries, similar actions have caused journalists following important issues to be tried and imprisoned simply for investigating and writing.

For a journalist in America, with financial devastation facing many publications, prospects for the continuation of Free Speech and Freedom of the Press is in severe jeopardy. Even the New York Times is in serious trouble and may be sold within a year. Only bloggers, themselves journalists, have a real handle on many issues and continue to carry the torch for truth, even if biased at times.
A journalist or blogger now must often choose between writing the truth, conveying a sense of the real subtext in his or her political environment or community, and being able to live one’s life unmolested. There is a heavy price to pay for speaking out.

Who will uncover truth in our society if these trends continue and more and more media slip into the mist of history? How will we continue as a Democracy if the forces of the State are allowed to destroy people using whatever means at their disposal?

Imagine that you had a point of view that you were afraid to voice in America. Will we now crucify and destroy those who disagree with us? Is this the new journalistic reality? Is this our future?

If we lose our liberties, there is no end to the slide into totalitarianism and terror.

The Flap

Politics is applesauce.
-- Will Rogers (1879 - 1935)

With the contentious races for several political offices, it’s no surprise that even the clubs are giving off some heat.

We are a long way from decisions on who D.I.D. is supporting but the McManus Westside Democratic Club is already out there. The problem is, there’s a little controversy over the press release sent out by Bernie Cohen, Jim McManus’s longtime friend.

The press release supports Leslie Crocker Snyder, John Liu and Eric Gioia. According to Cohen, Jim McManus knew about the press release – according to McManus, he didn’t.

When he was reached by phone, Jim stated that he is supporting Snyder but has not made a decision on either Liu or Gioia. “Bernie says I authorized the press release and I say I didn’t” was his response.

With every move that the political people make and then figuring out the percentages gained or lost with each chess piece moving about the board, these little tidbits matter.

Packing the Club

Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.

-- Martin Luther King Jr. (1929 - 1968), Letter from Birmingham Jail, April 16, 1963

A time-honored method of controlling a political club is known as “packing” or “stacking” the club. Simply described, either a candidate or nominee operating for a vested interest brings new members into the fold at a moment in time so that at the next vote they will be qualified to make the right choice.

While political clubs have lost their luster, there are still arguments in favor of an organization that expresses the wishes of a community or territory – sometimes pulling broader influence with it.

Downtown Independent Democrats" has developed out of SoHo and has carried the reputation of being truly independent along with it. SoHo itself has evolved from artists who ventured into a gothic jungle of warehouses and printing factories from places like Greenwich Village to escape the status quo. Leaders like Kathryn Freed, Jim Stratton and Sean Sweeney gave D.I.D. a special flavor.
As a result of D.I.D. successes, it is one of the few political clubs that aspirants really care about for endorsements. Scott Stringer, for example, managed to win his race for Borough President of Manhattan due, in part, to the vote in SoHo – and the support of D.I.D. The support of a truly independent club actually does still garner votes.

So, at various times, several political candidates have attempted to pack the club with their supporters in order to control the vote for officers. This past Fall, Julie Menin reportedly attempted a coup (which she denies) – followed most recently by Alan Gerson’s efforts. Gerson was actually supported by D.I.D. in the past but has fallen into disfavor with many rank and file club members. He is rumored to be packing the club so that his upcoming race will gain the support of the club once again. A number of current D.I.D. members who, due to Gerson’s fealty to Bloomberg on term-limits (he supported them) and his dubious record in SoHo, belong to the ABG club – “Anyone But Gerson.” While Menin is no longer believed to be trying to pack D.I.D., as Gerson has continued, Gleason is also reportedly trying to even the score by placing some of his people on the roster.


Gleason has suddenly started to get a serious second look as someone who will respond to the needs of SoHo residents.

There is nothing immoral or illegal about trying to take over a political club but there are certain rules of conduct that have always been followed NOT in the tradition of Tammany Hall. With quality performance in office, a club normally welcomes the enlargement of its membership base from an elected official. Not so, in this case.

The Prosecution Rests

In a recent interview we spoke with Cy Vance, Jr., the frontrunner in the race for Manhattan District Attorney.


It was like a blast of fresh air in a discussion that touched upon his plans for improvements in our criminal justice system. Bob Morgenthau, who is retiring this year, has provided us with a sense of fairness in Manhattan and clearly Vance seeks to improve upon that legacy. The full interview will be published in the April SoHo Journal in addition to next week’s blog. Stay tuned Rangers.

The Elephant in the Room

The truth is rarely pure and never simple.
-- Oscar Wilde (1854 - 1900)

While everyone is busy trying to point the finger at what happened to cause not only our economy, but also the world’s economy, to implode – consider this?
The total value of the U.S. stock market is under $15 Trillion, the total value of all real estate in this country is under $25 Trillion, and our total GDP stands at about $14 Trillion. The value of the entire world’s stock markets currently stands at under $50 Trillion.

But, what most people do not know is that it is nearly impossible to correctly value the number of derivatives , which are outstanding. These “bets” or contracts that hedge credit obligations – which include bonds, mortgage securities and corporate debts, including credit default swaps – amount to about $700 Trillion. Or, nearly three quarters of a quadrillion dollars. Others believe the amount is larger.

This Wall Street phenomenon is the real story in our economy. It is one problem that years ago Warren Buffet warned us all about and it is one which he recently mentioned when he said he hoped to be out of any derivative positions in “a few years.” Good luck.
So, as most consumers and many banks look askance at the muddled real estate market as well as the non-existent credit markets (insofar as ability to borrow), all are missing the boat as to the source and degree of the problem. We have an inconceivable amount of money (or, rather, the fantasy of such an amount of money actually existing) floating about in the Ether as mutually balanced obligations -- that will never be able to be paid in the event of default. Those defaults are now happening. And, as the defaults wind down deflation (reduction in value) accompanies the entropy.

This, in fact, is what we are grappling with in this economic disaster: The prospect of economic Armageddon. The world does not contain the amount of money or physical assets to balance out both ends of these bets in the event of default. If the buyer of a derivative defaults, having purchased the insurance to cover that “bet” -- and the guarantor (counterparty) of that insurance does not have the resources to cover that defaulted debt – what is there to be done?
Those are the questions being asked about AIG, Citigroup, Bank of America, Lehman Brothers, Bear Sterns, Merrill Lynch and thousands of companies that are defaulting on debts covered by derivative contracts. All $700 Trillion of them.

The Elephant in the room is restless and wants to eat.
And, until he does, there will be no new loans, no expansion of credit for the economy, no new jobs, no food, and certainly no housing. That means the end of the Hamptons economy and a severely diminished Manhattan economy. Expansion and building as we know it is done. A sign of these times is one new phenomenon: vacant lots in Manhattan with "For Rent" signs on them. There is no money to build.

Mortgages imploded due to the phony securities that Wall Street created in order to collect fees and create securities that NEVER had the value ascribed to them. In fact, the subprime situation was only a pimple on the elephant's tail. And, now all of us are paying that price.
It was the derivatives market that spawned the disaster we are now entering. As Thomas Kostigan of Marketwatch reports,

“It isn't the housing market devaluation, or the sub-prime mortgage market defaults that have us in real trouble. Those are nice fakes to sway attention away from the place where greed truly flourished -- trading phony instruments to the tune of $700 trillion.”


Interesting notes: Poland’s mortgage market was mostly written in Swiss francs. Nearly 60% of all mortgages are pegged to the value of the polish currency to the Swiss franc.
The polish currency, the zloty, has dropped nearly 50% in relation to the franc. One can only imagine what lies ahead in that situation.

UBS is just the tip of the iceberg with regard to the Swiss banking crisis – spawned by the IRS insistence that all 52,000 foreign (mostly American) accounts be divulged so that taxes and, no doubt, prosecutions, can begin for not paying taxes on these numbered accounts.
It is likely that Swiss banking, the country’s main industry, could be destroyed by this American move. No account secrecy, no deposits.

Downtown Currents

One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors.
-- Plato (427 BC - 347 BC)

Bob Morgenthau finally withdrew from the election process this week after decades of public service as Manhattan’s District Attorney. For years there had been speculation that Catherine Abate was the heir apparent and was waiting in the wings until “The Boss,” as his staff knows him, stepped aside.
Instead, as the rumors swirled, Abate was sidelined as the likely candidate to oppose Leslie Crocker Snyder in the upcoming Democratic Primary election.
While Downtown, in many cases, is considered a lock for the Jewish female vote, one of the reasons why Alan Gerson, again running for District 1 City Council seat, may still have an edge. Sophie can be heard in the background whenever Alan is on the phone.
Snyder was previously a law and order candidate who supported the death penalty but she took that off the table. Her 40% of the vote showing in the last election gives her substantial credibility.
But, countering Snyder’s move is a possible run by Dan Castleman, Morgenthau’s right hand man in the prosecutor’s office – as well as a serious challenge by Cyrus Vance, Jr.
Vance not only has name recognition but also presents a serious challenge to divvying up the Jewish vote. His father and his family stood out in fighting for the rights of Israel at a crucial point in history.


Little has been heard from Maria Derr lately, former Board #2 Chair, who is running against Chris Quinn in her bid to retain her seat in the City Council race. But, Yetta Kurland, a proponent of gay rights is another contestant in this race and may do relatively well and has some buzz.
However, it is unlikely that Quinn faces a serious challenge. Those who have criticized her (including this writer), recognize her immense political skills. A powerful Speaker who seeks to improve her ties with the community is more to be desired than a novice with a wish list. And, Quinn and her staff have been moving in the direction of building new bridges.


Little has changed in the Gerson/Menin/Gleason/Chin saga for City Council. We should expect sparks sometime this summer as the jockeying heats up.
A few rumors and tidbits have flown about.
Menin’s new blog apparently publishes on Huffington Post and the site apparently has rejected negative comments.

Gleason appeared on network television to dispel the belief that his 9-11 board game is a flight to insanity – rather that the point was to create publicity for the tragedy. Of course, those of us downtown well know that while the disaster may not have been avoidable -- many firefighters and police were unnecessarily exposed to danger and untimely death due to inadequate communications.
Anecdotal reports of dysfunctional transmitters and garbled transmissions are well documented and the anger harbored by those who know the truth about the treatment during and after the disaster are legend.


In Memoriam: Albert Edward Neale 1917-2009. Andy Neale’s 92 year
old father passed this week after a short but severe illness. As Andy describes him, he was “ a reserved man of fierce intellect, a wonderful husband, a decorated war veteran, a compassionate human being and a liberal to the end who thought Obama was the greatest thing to have happened to the USA.”

Notes from Downtown

In politics, absurdity is not a handicap.
-- Napoleon Bonaparte (1769 - 1821)

The District 3 City Council seat has been a source of intense scrutiny. From the pre-Term Limits speculation about candidates, which had Brad Hoylman running against Andrew Berman and Maria Derr tagging along, we now have Christine Quinn back in the mix with Derr still tagging along. Various stragglers are in tow but its mainly Quinn.

Quinn brings the Speakership, tough attitudes and experience – as well as animosity from voters over issues like Trump SoHo, the DSNY garage in Hudson Square and the Term-Limits deal.

What strikes many as difficult to understand, is why Bloomberg thought it necessary to push another term on us at all costs when he was riding a wave of popularity that seemed to make it unnecessary. The operative word, here, of course, is “seemed.” Maybe Staten Island is wavering.

Quinn supported Bloomberg and, of course, was backed up by enough Council members with their hands out to make term-limits work.

It STILL does not mean that we are not better off with Bloomberg. It only means that it was done in a “Big Brother” fashion. There’s never a good taste in your mouth after having a rusty pipe rammed down your throat. But, despite all of the Harvard boys around, it’s possible that he did not think that holding another referendum was a chance he wanted to take. But, why doesn’t he now just hold the referendum since he’s holding all of the cards? We all know how to drink the Kool-aide with grace.

But, the damage to Quinn was temporary, just as the damage over the Slushgate imbroglio seems to have passed. Or, not.

Even an indictment doesn’t make you a bad person. It only means that you matter and that you have political enemies. Welcome to the real world.

The difference between having a controversial Speaker/Council Member as opposed to one who is incompetent, of course, matters greatly.

Quinn’s main opponent is Maria Derr, former Board #2 Chair and heir-apparent to the Passannate name (Bill Passanante of Greenwich Village), who preceded Deborah Glick in the Assembly.

Derr, a candidate who has bounced from club to club in search of a political position to run for, settled upon Quinn’s seat after the idea of running against Deborah Glick seemed like folly. Glick is well-respected and, while sometimes paranoid about being challenged, has little to worry about. Few candidates can hold a candle to Deborah’s genuine community bona fides.
Derr has traded on the Passanante name, close related to Carmine DeSapio, only recently. Prior to that, her uncle was rarely mentioned.

But, Derr’s affiliations were what has always been suspect – in a low-level sort of way. Her connections with a group of minor power brokers on Board #2 kept her in questionable company with people whose dirty tricks were not particularly elegant. The level of mean-spirited games played by such luminaries as Alan Roskoff and Bob Rinaolo, or dearly departed Arty Strickler – while she was Board #2 Chair – were mildly shocking at the time but were, in reality, simply comical in import. Her level of sophistication apart from a heavy commitment to retaliation leaves something to be desired, even in a politician.

In fact, after insinuating herself on the McManus Midtown Democratic Club (after pulling the same stunt at VRDC), she sent out a press release with photos of herself and Jim McManus, seemingly portraying support for her candidacy for Quinn’s seat.

According to Jim McManus, who was reached for this piece, he did not even know about the flyer until after it had been mailed out.

He stated flatly that he supports Christine Quinn for City Council. He helped Quinn garner her Speakership and he firmly supports her for re-election. This City Council seat is in McManus territory and he knows politics. Period. End of story.
As a side note, for those of you who are wondering, Bob Morgenthau IS running for another term. Yes, -- and Leslie Crocker Snyder is also running. Rumors have abounded for years about Catherine Abate and more currently about Cyrus Vance, Jr. – should Bob decide not to run. Well, he’s running.

If it is worth anything, the mistake is making his age THE issue. In a personal interview, this writer found him to be completely and fully engaged, in charge of the issues, and in charge of the situation – as well as a tough politician. His prosecutors, like right-hand man, Dan Castleman, are also the kind of 1000-pound gorillas you don’t want to screw around with. Snyder has dropped her death penalty requirement as a gesture to liberals but Morgenthau is still running the show.

Frontrunners and Dark Horses

The word 'politics' is derived from the word 'poly', meaning 'many', and the word 'ticks', meaning 'blood sucking parasites'.
-- Larry Hardiman


As the race for District 1 City Council seat starts to warm up there are numerous scenarios being played out in the minds of political junkies Downtown.



The big question is, besides the new lease on life for Alan Gerson, who will be running for that seat. While unopposed in the past, Gerson has a few contenders who would like to replace him. The are a lot of voters who apparently feel the same way. In addition to the race itself, there are rumors that a deal is in the works which would have Alan going out the back door before the Primary to take a position promised him by Mike for supporting the term limits win.






Julie Menin, a recent Republican, is currently a Democrat who is Chair of Board #1 and widely known as desirous of the Council seat. The ill-fated takeover of D.I.D. has abated somewhat and it reportedly earned a bit of ire from Borough President Scott Stringer, who benefited from that club’s support.
Both Menin and Gerson are friends of Bloomberg and were supportive of his term-limits putsch. She has publicly stated that she is not running against Alan and is busy developing a new life as Democratic consultant and blogger (now railing against Republicans). Since there are no term limits on Board #1, we will continue to hear about her views on lots of issues. A large cache of cash and a PR firm will ensure that.

However, some doubt the finality of her public decision and we may yet see some curious twists and Machiavellian turns. As the song says, “See you – in September.”


Pete Gleason has vowed to run against Gerson, regardless of what happens. He is considered an underdog, if not a dark horse. While he has a lot of ground to cover, he is gaining support. He is wrapping up his legal practice and will be campaigning full time starting in February.
He may also garner some unexpected main line political support because of Gerson’s position on term-limits, which was very unpopular among voters. Gleason’s strong points are a following among police, firefighters and civil service as well as disenchanted residents in SoHo and Tribeca who feel that Gerson has done nothing for eight years and then allowed High-Rise Mike another four as a sort of dictator.



Margaret Chin began her campaign at the end of last year and has gathered momentum. She has carefully assessed her chances and is expected to make a solid showing but is one of the dark horses in this race. Her identification with Chinatown is both positive and negative – a strong voter base but a knotty problem with a perceived provincialism. Almost no one looks to the “Communist” label, which was used against her in the past as negative any more - not a few find it charming and oddly nostalgic. Her experience in housing reform, community organizing and social activism are potent strengths.



Evan Lederman, a darker horse, is a newcomer also contemplating entering the fray. His bona fides include membership in the elite law firm of Cravath, Swaine and membership in Community Board #2 where he is Chair of Street Activity and Film Permits. He was also President of NYS Young Democrats. As of this writing, he confirmed considering a run but has not formally decided.




Last, but certainly not least, is the darkest horse. Irrespective of her strong points, not the least of which is a set of judicial robes and having done the job before Gerson, Kathryn Freed is not completely out of the picture. While she will not confirm her intentions – since she already gainfully employed as a Civil Court Judge – there is always the possibility that will have a change of heart. Or, perhaps, a change of direction. That’s a dark horse with a wild card.

As this heats up, we’ll watch the sparks fly.

Political Realism

I believe we are on an irreversible trend toward more freedom and democracy - but that could change.
-- Dan Quayle (1947 - )


One of the problems in dealing with the current realities is that it is often not pleasant. A Hobson’s choice comes to mind. But, as we all know, not making any choice at all is giving way to a degree of pessimism that makes this blog seem positively serendipitous. Remember, though, if we can’t get what we want, we may get what we need.

There is no secret, for example, that Bloomberg, who is both arrogant and narcissistic (basic requirements for politicians) is probably qualified to lead in these parlous times. Of course, he’s not the only one. Tony Avella is an activist who inspires trust. Bill Thompson is the Comptroller for God’s sake, he knows numbers. Weiner is a hard worker.
Even Chris Quinn, who helped Bloomberg and may now regret it, seems a hell of a lot more human than he does. She’s tough, talented and real.

The fact that Hi-Rise Mike is worth only $11 Billion now instead of $20 Billion that he was approaching during the bubble, simply means that he is feeling a bit more human. But, why bother running again? Oh, right, the narcissism.
There’s also the problem that, as one insider described, “he’s a prude.”
Nightclubs are closing as a result of phoney drug busts, Disney has moved in, Dominatrices have been arrested or moved out (courtesy of Feinblatt who runs the Mayor’s Task Force) – and Sin City is now Disneyland East. Convictions are easily obtained because the money dictates, along with his underling Ray Kelly's corrupt cops, just who gets real justice. In two recent busts of NYC Dungeons, for example, the cops who “investigated” and extensively surveilled each had four sessions of roleplay on the taxpayers dime before they arrived with a battering ram and made off with $100K in cash. Apparently, to Feinblatt, the cop who receives the attention of a young lady in leather is entitled to "hazardous duty" pay scale for numerous visits.
A well-known principle of Criminal Justice, were you to ask a reputable defense lawyer, is that cops perjure themselves but judges accept anything they say in State Court. But even deep pockets do not ensure Justice when the prosecutor is holding all of the cards.

So, the money has cleaned up Manhattan and soon the Death of Fun will be our new moniker instead of Fun City. But Manhattan used to be, well, Manhattan. Now, Daffy Duck will excite the tourists from Idaho.
The real problem for all of us is that what we used to accuse the Mob and criminals of doing (lying, stealing, cheating and making a mockery of justice) – is now what prosecutors and the cops do when politicians want something accomplished quickly. They go directly from political decisions to fait accompli – no constitutionality or messy legal questions in between.
Giuliani was bad but at least he had charisma. His father was a mobster and he understood.

So Bloomberg will now be re-elected because he has managed the media situation and can afford to cram it down our throats. And, never expect to get past Ray Kelly’s dislike of bloggers for press credentials. Once on the ballot, the PR and the pressure will continue and we’ll have four more years to sanitize Manhattan. We all know that we’ve been managed.
But, let’s not allow each other to believe that this is anything more than a high-level con job. In The Grifters, it was called “the long con.”

A footnote to the Kennedy Senate matter brings us to a few salient points.
First, the fix was in once the Kennedy clan supported Obama and no doubt contributed to putting him over the top. That negotiation was clear.
Caroline may not be the most experienced candidate but, irrespective of the royal family fantasy, she wants the job, is bright and connected and is also NOT corrupt. We should appreciate the clean linear quality that is far from Joe Kennedy but not so far from Robert Kennedy. Idealism was their hallmark. While the brothers paid the price for moving off Joe’s script, and contrary to Henry Stern’s opinion, Robert was not a New Yorker and knew little about our state when he ran. It was simply an available Senate seat. It was a vehicle and he almost immediately became a national figure who did little for our state. Of course, most of us didn’t mind since he was going to replace JFK for many of us.
The notion that Bloomberg is a Kingmaker in this matter is insulting. He may be waiting in the curtains (perhaps arranging a late curtain call when Caroline moves up the ladder) but Teddy sealed the deal earlier on.

Historic Shifts

It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it's a depression when you lose yours.
--Harry S Truman (1884 - 1972)

One of the problems with the blame game affecting the views of our contracting economy is that we fail to recognize the seismic shifts that occur among populations ranging from aging baby-boomers to new births – as well as flows of capital, business cycles and markets. The ebb and flow of capital and degrees of risk and risk-avoidance – as well as major financial cycles -- are outside of our control. Some of these sometimes generational factors are completely independent of toxic financial vehicles likes SIV’s and CDO’s and whether Bear Sterns or Lehman Brothers have taken the pipe. The shell games going on in corporate America are as much a result of the cyclical forces as they may be the cause of current pain. Even the Madoff fiasco is a symptom, not a cause. In short, nothing that the Federal government or we can do will alter what is about to happen.

We are entering a deep Recession that will become a Depression by 2011. During that segment in our history there will be a stock market rally lasting for perhaps several months, a very brief improvement in lower end real estate numbers and a resurgence of inflation – but will shortly be followed by an even more calamitous collapse.

Knowing this may or may not prevent the S.E.C. or D.A.’s office from trying to blame individuals for what is about to happen. But, it’s important to know that there is no correlation between specific events and the macro cycle we now face. The events we are about to witness are cyclical and inevitable. Those macro events currently affect the evaporation of capital, the downsizing of business and the deflation (and inflation) about to ravage the economy. The inflation, which will occur within the next year or two, will be short-lived and prepare us for the precipitous drop shortly thereafter.
Credible predictions for the local economy in Manhattan and the Hamptons see the loss of 4 to 5 million jobs, a reduction in the number of retail companies and stores through closure or bankruptcy, and a further deflation in the value of real estate. In the Hamptons, home prices will have fallen by 50% by the end of 2010. According Harry Dent author of The Great Depression Ahead, in order to arrive at values consistent with long term trends, real estate must drop between 40 and 60 percent from 2007 values in order to attain balance.

In Manhattan, where prices have just started to drop – meaning, that brokers have finally admitted that it is happening – the slide has just begun. Projects have stopped in some locations and commercial real estate will deflate at an alarming rate – which will cause bankruptcies and rents to drop precipitously. Harry Macklowe’s tribulations are a symptom of what will happen to many major developers and landlords.
Manhattan apartment rentals have already started to drop and we are only at the beginning of what will become a full-blown Depression by the end of 2010 to 2011. The reduction in services in Manhattan will be difficult to believe and the quality of life stemming from the relentless fines and fees that Bloomberg resorts to will sour any positive feelings towards his Savior image. A respite to this scenario may not occur until 2013 to 2016.

In the Hamptons, an economy that is entirely built and paid for on the backs of New Yorkers who buy summer homes and investment property, the only question is whether a Chapter 11 is in their future. In recent months, one broker described his business succinctly, “the phone doesn’t even ring.”
A broker in East Quogue reported that even the houses in the $300,000 to $500,000 range are not selling. Many McMansions have already dropped by 50% in value (if not price) – and have further to go on the downside.
There will be a modest upsurge in Hamptons real estate activity as people try to rent a summer house and pool their money to share it – as the Code Enforcement police (who will be getting pink slips along with many more of the Town of Southampton’s employees this year) try to fine and criminalize this last and only form of income.
Regardless of how Southampton Town or East Hampton Town treats this brief shot in the arm for the summer season, after the Spring “selling season” is over the slide in that economy will start in earnest. The deflation in real estate will be the new long-term trend – along with the tax base that once propped up the local economy. The brief resurgence of $200/barrel oil (which will collapse again to $30) will exacerbate local conditions that are made worse by with a corrupt political bureaucracy. The
flow of easy money in the Hamptons is gone and this will end decades of political incompetence.
Look for oppressive attempts by the local governments to squeeze money out of tourists and property owners who will abandon properties in growing numbers.

While the towns in the Hamptons might seek a political solution by reaching out to New Yorkers in order to solve the impending disaster by working together, that will not happen. Lip service was once given about hiring a Public Advocate to bring New Yorkers – who pay for the economy – into the local political process but until the vote is garnered that would not happen.

Sell all real estate if you can and buy 30-year Treasury Bonds. It will be a long and difficult ride. Even buying food (which will escalate in cost) will become an issue for many families.

Irresponsible Government

It is inexcusable for scientists to torture animals; let them make their experiments on journalists and politicians.
-- Henrik Ibsen (1828 - 1906)

When agencies like the D.O.B., which has ignored calls from the community, especially SoHo, to remove offensive billboards that are illegal; when D.O.T. allows special interests who are neither residents of our community, nor interested in the will of the people; – you have a prescription for widespread discontent and political retaliation.

This past weekend was the scene of a demonstration in front of the offices of D.O.T. at 40 Worth Street. Commissioner Jeanette Sadik-Kahn, an avowed bike enthusiast, along with a Mayor who increasingly resembles a prudish Dictator (in with Disney and big developers, out with nightclubs and late night entertainment) -- together have allowed the D.O.T. to butcher the roadways in SoHo, Little Italy, Chinatown and parts of Greenwich Village. The recent rat maze created out of Grand Street in SoHo is a perfect example. The adoption of Park Row as a security zone that resembles Checkpoint Charlie in Soviet era Berlin is another compromise.

Interestingly, Margaret Chin, the organizer who worked with Sean Sweeney of the SoHo Alliance, was joined by Pete Gleason and Alan Gerson – all of whom (except Sweeney) are running for the same City Council seat now held by Gerson. Gleason had made comments on the issue and Chin has been vociferous – while Gerson met with only John Fratta of Little Italy and ignored everyone else.

Clearly, all of the politicians realized that they may be subject to the whims of the Mayor (Gerson has pandered to Bloomberg on term limits), but to throw the voters of Chinatown, SoHo, Little Italy and Greenwich Village to the dogs for green stripes and mid-street parking horrors in order to pander to extreme bikers should not be worth the risk. The communities want protection for pedestrians before they start worrying about bikers having their own highway across town. A street where residents can park overnight or legally drop off their kids is a street where bikers can be welcome. A street where pedestrians are robbed of a crosswalk, is not a place where bikers need special treatment.

Everyone is clear about the fact that Houston Street was the proper location for cross-town bike traffic – and it is still the best option.

The Political Scene

Too bad the only people who know how to run the country are busy driving cabs and cutting hair.
-- George Burns (1896 - 1996)

The political future of Alan Gerson, Council Member for the SoHo area seems to be a question mark that may be answered by the contenders for his seat. Julie Menin, former Republican and current Community Board #1 Chair, Pete Gleason, attorney and former fireman, Margaret Chin, housing activist and Chinatown luminary are the major current challengers.
Gerson has been criticized for ignoring SoHo, while wasting at least 5 years on a vendor law and ignoring the billboard issue, barely recognizing the pollution and traffic problems and, most recently, pandering to the Bloomberg term-limits fiasco. He has also been silent on the butchering of SoHo streets pandered to by Community Board #2 and Transportation Alternatives -- through Bloomberg’s D.O.T. Commissioner Sadik-Kahn.

Billboard Behind Trump SoHo

Menin claims to not be running, although Jewish females have a high rate of voter turnout and success at the polls downtown. Her cunning and notoriety is due in part to lots of cash and a coterie of real estate professionals and dealmakers who benefit from her control of Board #1.
Gleason is running and takes every opportunity to point out that he is the only candidate that resembles Robin Hood, in a sea of people trying to buy political office downtown. His biggest support comes from Civil Service, Firemen and Police. Although, he has recently been soliciting the advice of activists. Persistence has paid off for many other underdogs.

Margaret Chin has yet to define her candidacy with respect to the other constituencies downtown, apart from Chinatown.


Many over recent years have coveted the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Clinton. Jerry Nadler is known to have wanted it – with Scott Stringer drooling over the opportunity to move up to Congress (Nadler is Stringer’s rabbi). With that unlikely scenario occurring, they’ll both stand pat – and term-limits has kept Stringer interested in remaining as Borough President. There are no challengers on the horizon just yet.


The Cuomo people have reportedly had dibs on the Senate seat even before the election. It remains to be seen whether the old boy (Cuomo senior) network and Cuomo family can press the right buttons. In fairness, however, while Andrew has not been described as warm and gregarious, his performance has been well received.

The Maloney people are waging a feverish campaign to make us all aware of her high-visibility and impeccable credentials – also a woman and an activist. This seems like a likely selection and is supported by savvy politicians like Adam Silvera of the D.I.D., a District Leader who seems to know where a lot of the bones are buried. Julie Nadel, a leading political activist downtown, has not yet made her opinion known.
Caroline Kennedy, the choice of many Democrats, is the darling of Obama's coterie and it will be interesting to see how Paterson plays this.

Nadel, incidentally, is being forced out of HRPT (Hudson River Park Trust) by Stringer for speaking out and it is one of those unseemly power plays directed against genuine progressives in politics. The HRPT is a closed club controlled by Bloomberg’s so-called girlfriend, Diana Taylor and it doesn’t play well with either transparency or criticism.

Eric Gioia & Julie Nadel

The Public Advocate race has had Eric Gioia of the City Council (Investigations Committee Chair) pushing hard – against at least Norman Siegel (Gottbaum is not running) – when out of nowhere Mark Green has reemerged. Green, supported in the past by some dubious characters like Allen Roskoff, who has now slipped quietly into Community Board #4 and is rumored to be working on Maria Derr’s campaign – where he ran her dirty tricks campaigns for her at Community Board #2. Green, as it has been reported, has the advantage of being well known – which is also his disadvantage.

Meanwhile, Maria Derr (former Board #2 Chair) has now adopted both the McManus Midtown Democratic Club and the welcoming arms of Jim McManus – and has emerged as a “progressive” Democrat according to the propaganda from her campaign. She had previously adopted V.R.D.C. when it suited her political needs, along with nightclub owner Bob Rinaolo. Apparently, after searching for the proper venue to assert herself and present her dubious bona fides – she has decided to challenge Christine Quinn for her City Council seat which is located in McManus’s turf. Quinn has been weakened by the Slushgate investigation and downtown residents, at least, have been critical of the D.S.N.Y garage, Trump SoHo and her support of Bloomberg’s term limits play.
Derr has joined with McManus and is attempting to associate her new “progressivism” with the Obama people in order to enlist more political juice. Clearly, the view of what is termed progressive has become a malleable concept.
Of course, claiming to benefit from supporting Obama in a completely Democratically controlled political town – is like asking a New York landlord for a thank you note for paying rent. It’s just a little too obvious.

None of the above politicians (with the exception of Margaret Chin) have yet to really have any affect on the housing crisis and landlord/developer abuse, affordable housing, elimination of illegal billboards, pollution and traffic problems in SoHo to make pedestrians safer; – and none have openly criticized wildcat City agencies like Department of Buildings or D.O.T. – which ride roughshod over our community. But, then, when have any of our politicians acted in our best interests once elected?

A Pedestrian Discussion

It is said that power corrupts, but actually it's more true that power attracts the corruptible. The sane are usually attracted by other things than power.
-- David Brin (1950 - )

Recent developments in SoHo as well as Little Italy have created embarrassingly foolish designs for our streets, on Grand Street in particular. Years of complaints about preserving guerilla art and calls for turning billboards into canvasses for contemporary art have been ignored. Even pedestrian safety is ignored. For almost 10 years Councilman Alan Gerson as well as the Community Board have ignored pleas to support Bob Bolles Park.
But, bike paths? Anything they want, they can have. Almost instantaneously, it would seem.
Thanks to Commissioner Sadik-Kahn of the D.O.T. and the Greenwich Village group that controls the Community Board’s Transportation Committee. They never saw an experimental plan in SoHo that they didn’t like.
There was never any rational question about the fact that a bike lane was needed cross-town – and that Houston Street was the place to put it. But that was ignored by D.O.T. and the next easiest thing was to carve up the underrepresented community in SoHo. It was never about bike safety. It was always about power and control over SoHo.

What we have here, now, are car lanes located nearly in the middle of Grand street and minimally used dirty green paint – preventing SoHo residents from having places to stop to drop off passengers, the elderly, handicapped or their children. It's NO STOPPING, not NO STANDING. And, no overnight parking at all on the bike lane side of the street.
In the interest of bike safety, Commissioner Sadik-Kahn, the leader of what is fast becoming a bike cult (as opposed to cyclists like you and your kids), has permitted enthusiasts to carve up our neighborhoods to the detriment of cars, buses, and trucks.
What? You are supporting the rights of these polluters over the serene quiet of a bicycle? Are you mad?

Yes, SoHo is mad - mad as hell! And, so is Little Italy.

Not only mad that the buses cannot turn onto Grand Street and then back up incessantly into the crosswalks in order to make the turn;
Not only mad that Fire trucks cannot make the turn at all on to Grand street (pray there is no fire);
Not only mad that Grand street and West Broadway have been turned into another impassable crosswalk for part of the day;
Not simply mad that this is just a completely stupid design that panders to leaders of the bike lane movement (not bike riders themselves) who are starting to look like cultists seeking power – for themselves – and their deified leader Janette Sadik-Kahn;
Not at all mad that the Commissioner is looking out for biker riders safety and their children who are sometimes into tow on their way to school. (Although many of us don’t have that option with several kids going to different schools or live too far away).
And, certainly not mad that there are fewer tourists who come to SoHo and who leave their debris on our streets as they show off their new Mercedes.

But, Mad as hell that no agency, especially D.O.T. or Traffic gives a damn about the residents and pedestrians in SoHo or Little Italy -- Who have complained for years about people being killed on our streets.

Where are the bike enthusiasts who do not live in SoHo – at the Community Board, on the Traffic Committee, in City Hall, at Sadik-Kahn’s D.O.T. –- where have they been as we have tried to have our streets repaired and protected by Traffic agents to allow us to safely cross the street?

Why are crosswalks missing at our street corners? Why have our sidewalks been broken and unrepaired for decades?
Why do we only have only a handful of Traffic agents in SoHo – from Broome Street to Varick Street – watching out for our children so that we can cross the street safely? Even parents pushing carriages are ignored, to fend for themselves.

CROSSING BROOME WITH THE GREEN

Where is the enforcement in SoHo? The few police and traffic agents that do appear for a few hours a day during the week – watch as residents weave in and out of bumper-to-bumper cars that are blocking the crosswalks against the light.

The Enviro-biker friendly movement is the “next best thing” for a few leaders who have found a hook into political power and celebrity. This is a skyhook into personal status and political recognition. It is unfortunate that these people do not really care about those in the neighborhoods they cut up by supporting pedestrian safety FIRST. Where is the cry for politicians -- from people who do not live here -- to make our streets safer for our residents FIRST -- before basking in the glow of a Press conference touting their successes?
And, where are the giddy politicians who see only numbers in supporting this new group from out of town – on the issue of Pedestrian safety?

Or, is this new movement, which has gotten money to butcher our streets and inconvenience our residents, just a cynical ploy for a political party for its leaders? And, whom are they taking for a ride? Are politicians being paid off? Is this yet another, Hi-Rise Mike ploy to screw the residents Downtown?

Talk to us in SoHo about rights for bikers when we can cross the street safely. Many of us and our children are bike riders and have been for 30, 40, 50, or 60 years – but we all are pedestrians. Where were the snot-nosed kids pushing this agenda when SoHo was the cutting edge for bohemian artists?
The more dangerous the configuration of our streets, the more impossible to navigate our thoroughfares, the more self-centered vehicle drivers AND bike riders become – and the more the pedestrians suffer.
It’s beginning to look like this is just a fool’s game of power and control at our expense.

Is it that the pedestrians are, well, just not cool? We only walk.
If we were, wouldn't bike groups want to help pedestrians first – and then ask US to help THEM. Not the reverse.
But, that's not what is happening. Since the Community Board seems not be representative of SoHo, bike groups should be making contact with the people, not politicians or nominal groups.
We pedestrians and residents in SoHo apparently are not perceived to be powerful enough. We don't have a belligerent,
me-first, agenda that pushes certain politicians' buttons.

Children, senior citizens, the handicapped, pedestrians, tourists and, yes, weekend bike riders with their families - apparently don't count to those currently in office. Since members of many communities, such as SoHo and Little Italy, are offended by this treatment, politicians might do well to take notes.

The Big L – Gloom and Doom Part 3

Here's what Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters) -- one of the few market commentators with first-hand experience of the Great Depression -- has to say:

“The market is warning of a coming depression. Next year there’ll be a huge problem of unemployment, job openings will have disappeared, and every business will be going over its personal thinking in terms of who the business can do without.

“The sentiment in the country will be dark grey to jet black. Fortunes will have been wiped out. Thousands of savings plans and 401Ks will have been shattered. Americans who have never experienced true hard times will be living hard times. Confusion and fear will be rampant. How do I know all this? I’ve been here before, I know the signs.”


By now, even those among us that think economists are people who know what they’re talking about, realize this: that the genie is now out of the bottle. Few believe that the government has a handle on where this ship of state is headed, financially. Despite Wall Street and its current health, next year and quite possibly the year after, 2009 and 2010, will almost certainly be a disaster. Even if a traditional-style recovery on Wall Street were to start happening now, there is no imaginative vehicle, like CDO’s or SIV’s, that will be the “next big thing” to bail out this economy. Wall Street may recover slowly from here, but it is more likely that any rally that occurs will be a Bear Rally, to be followed by pain -- a lot more pain.

What lies ahead is not a V or a U – traditional symbols of a bounce in Wall Street that signals we are recovering. The big L is now what is predicted if we are lucky enough to avoid the big D.
This describes a long, long, slide down – followed by a very long period of flat or low economic activity accompanied by deflation. It is clearly NOT a period of recovery – it is a period of economic stagnation. Few new jobs, little housing activity and disasterous, permanent downsizing. Only afterwards, assuming that rational economic policy – worldwide – is put into place, can there be any growth.
If you doubt this, contemplate the fact that Japan was in the dumpster for 17 years before it began to recover. Contemplate the fact that real economic activity after 1929 did not occur until World War II – and that any stock purchased in 1929, which was followed by SEVEN major drops before it ended in 1932, did not regain its value until 1954.

We are now still on the slide. Housing has another year or two before it hits bottom. Many houses in the Hamptons have already dropped by 50% in value and Manhattan condos and coops are just now beginning to fall in value. Many of the sales figures that real estate companies provide are hype. Few brokers will tell the truth that activity has fallen by 30-35% and that prices are buoyed only be the averages artificially skewed by a few extremely upscale new developments which are as close to speculating in tulips, as one can imagine.
Price drops are now common. They will soon be the norm.
With 50,000 Citigroup pink slips, 10% of JPMorgan Chase employees being dropped and the combined redundancies at the Merrill/Bank of America merger, the Lehman fiasco and the disappearance of WAMU, not to mention the bank failures across the country – credit, capital and investment is fast disappearing. The recovery figures in housing are based upon limited sales – foreclosures and short sales. By the end of this year and next, several million more people will be out of work and the foreclosures may INCREASE rather than decrease as a result.
There are convincing arguments that we are, in fact, no matter what anyone does, headed into a Depression by 2011. This is based upon the cumulative begging, borrowing and stealing now going on by the Federal government – which uses printed money to solve an essential problem with our economic model. And, that is, there is a limit on how long you can pay your bills and the interest on your bills by borrowing yet more money. That process, created by massive leveraging, does end somewhere. And, since we are still leveraging our way out of this mess by printing more money, issuing more Treasury Bills, and bailing out more inefficient businesses, the end will not be pretty.

What is to be learned from this?
Nothing. This is our future.
Everyone needs to understand where we all going.
To know is to be forewarned.


Buying gold is a hedge but until grocery stores start accepting gold coins for bread, the only transactions that can be had are with Steve, the coin dealer. It is neither realistic nor practical to hoard gold. And, don’t forget, those who bought gold at $950 an ounce a few months ago, have lost $200 on that investment already.
Reducing expenses, downsizing your business, limiting unnecessary purchases and increasing your productivity are among the few things you can do personally. If you MUST attend a political fundraiser, be damned sure that he or she represents your needs and will give you real promises.

What may be helpful in knowing what is about to happen, assuming that GM, Ford and Chrysler do get a bailout or bridge-to-nowhere loans (since non are viable business models), is that voters need to keep a sharp eye on the politicians.
Forget Bush and forget Paulson – the Goldman Sachs CEO who bailed out his buddies on Wall Street first -- and then scrapped plans to buy the toxic debt which he used to convince Congress to give him the money. Paulson had resigned effective January even before he got the green light from Congress, so he’s already accomplished what he needed for his friends.

But, local politicians need to be watched like a hawk.

In the Hamptons, where a bankruptcy in the Town of Southampton is not unlikely, more local residents need to understand that the Republicans have been running things for decades. They are used to living off of the fat in the real estate game – by taking the property taxes and the transfer taxes intended for the Community Preservation Fund to run the government. Fred Thiele, former Town of Southampton Supervisor, buddy of Democratic County Chairman Rich Schaeffer and friend of racist County Executive Steve Levy – created the Preservation Fund to buy vacant land not to be developed. That fund has now been raided by Supervisors in East Hampton and Southampton in order to pay salaries and other expenses. In other words, instead of the painful decisions, they have dipped into that money improperly, if not illegally.

What does this tell you? It tells all of us that the source of funds to run the government – the money used to abuse New Yorkers, landlords, non-resident taxpaying property owners – has dried up. The entire local economy in the Hamptons is in deep, deep trouble. And still, like before, they exclude the ONLY source of money in their planning or government. Calls for a Hamptons Advocate fell on deaf ears in the past. That is unlikely to change with another administration of Republicans who only want power.
With wins by Obama, Pope and Schiavoni, the economy as well as the political landscape may change without their cooperation.

In Manhattan, there is more subtlety. But, change in Manhattan will come in the form of alternative political structures. The fact that Democrats control the agenda in a liberal or progressive city, may be challenged. As the economy tanks in Manhattan, politicians may find that they do not have guarantee of a sinecure in office.
Fundraising will change. The money will not be there.

As the budget decreases, as tax revenues dry up, and the City and private workforce decreases – and as deflation takes hold, politicians will have to work harder to retain the trust of voters. The Obama win will comfort many but change is the message – not status quo.

Notes on the Dictatorship

In America you can go on the air and kid the politicians, and the politicians can go on the air and kid the people.
-- Groucho Marx (1890 - 1977)


As people dropped off their young children today at school, Officer Maresco was directing the Police Department tow-trucks to remove the cars belonging to known criminals -- parents who were located in a No Parking zone.
Five Police tow-trucks cruised around the two schools waiting for the parents to escort their children in safely – and, as they walked out of sight for this 10 minute ritual known loosely as PROTECTING CHILDREN – the tow trucks swooped in. The tickets had already been issued on the spot.

The fact that numerous meetings were held with representatives of the 6th Precinct, Community Board #2, including Brad Hoylman (before he was Chair) and Commissioner Forgione, the City agencies persist in penalizing parents in trying to protect their children. Why would they say that there is no such sign allowing children to be dropped off in the mornings – and that the “word will go out so that this does not happen” and then just continue to do it?

Of course, all of this flows from the top. Bloomberg has once again proven that Ve Must Vollow Ze Rulz.
The Nightlife industry has experience Gestapo tactics by the police, with phony arrests and set-ups to shut down clubs and bars;
Communities have been ruined with Department of Buildings and Department of Transportation actions that spit on the needs and desires of residents – and, lest we not forget –
Democracy has been suspended with the term limits fiasco.

So, now that we have severely reduced crime, the City will now go after parents and children? Do you smell a prude who has the arrogance of power and money?
Another weak link where our Dear Leader can assert his complete control over our thoughts and wishes?
Even our children’s safety is an irrelevancy.

We need better leadership than this.