If I'd written all the truth I knew for the past ten years, about 600 people - including me - would be rotting in prison cells from Rio to Seattle today. Absolute truth is a very rare and dangerous commodity in the context of professional journalism.
-- Hunter S. Thompson
The people shall not be deprived or abridged of their right to speak, to write, or to publish their sentiments; and the freedom of the press, as one of the great bulwarks of liberty, shall be inviolable.
-- James Madison
Imagine that you are a journalist in a country where the ruling party and its government does not tolerate criticism or a difference of opinion. Or, were you to voice opposition to the government, you would be killed or destroyed – using any means possible. That the focus of the government attacks may be couched in some other mainstream, popular vehicle, permitting vast media resources (including PR and phony leaks) to create an adverse frenzy is merely part of a strategy. Think about reporters waiting for you at every turn, walking around your apartment and offices, asking accusatory questions based upon innuendos and lies to sell tabloids and gain viewers. Almost any excuse can be used by a government to make you, yes you, a criminal to be pursued.
What is widely viewed as legitimate business practices, can, with a twist of focus by a government official, become an illegality.
In Russia, several journalists and human rights advocates have been the focus of convenient, high profile murders that were never solved. Court cases pointed accusatory fingers but juries have acquitted them – as arranged. In Iran, North Korea and other countries, similar actions have caused journalists following important issues to be tried and imprisoned simply for investigating and writing.
For a journalist in America, with financial devastation facing many publications, prospects for the continuation of Free Speech and Freedom of the Press is in severe jeopardy. Even the New York Times is in serious trouble and may be sold within a year. Only bloggers, themselves journalists, have a real handle on many issues and continue to carry the torch for truth, even if biased at times.
A journalist or blogger now must often choose between writing the truth, conveying a sense of the real subtext in his or her political environment or community, and being able to live one’s life unmolested. There is a heavy price to pay for speaking out.
Who will uncover truth in our society if these trends continue and more and more media slip into the mist of history? How will we continue as a Democracy if the forces of the State are allowed to destroy people using whatever means at their disposal?
Imagine that you had a point of view that you were afraid to voice in America. Will we now crucify and destroy those who disagree with us? Is this the new journalistic reality? Is this our future?
If we lose our liberties, there is no end to the slide into totalitarianism and terror.
Wednesday, May 06, 2009
Friday, April 03, 2009
The Flap
Politics is applesauce.
-- Will Rogers (1879 - 1935)
With the contentious races for several political offices, it’s no surprise that even the clubs are giving off some heat.
We are a long way from decisions on who D.I.D. is supporting but the McManus Westside Democratic Club is already out there. The problem is, there’s a little controversy over the press release sent out by Bernie Cohen, Jim McManus’s longtime friend.
The press release supports Leslie Crocker Snyder, John Liu and Eric Gioia. According to Cohen, Jim McManus knew about the press release – according to McManus, he didn’t.
When he was reached by phone, Jim stated that he is supporting Snyder but has not made a decision on either Liu or Gioia. “Bernie says I authorized the press release and I say I didn’t” was his response.
With every move that the political people make and then figuring out the percentages gained or lost with each chess piece moving about the board, these little tidbits matter.
-- Will Rogers (1879 - 1935)
With the contentious races for several political offices, it’s no surprise that even the clubs are giving off some heat.
We are a long way from decisions on who D.I.D. is supporting but the McManus Westside Democratic Club is already out there. The problem is, there’s a little controversy over the press release sent out by Bernie Cohen, Jim McManus’s longtime friend.
The press release supports Leslie Crocker Snyder, John Liu and Eric Gioia. According to Cohen, Jim McManus knew about the press release – according to McManus, he didn’t.
When he was reached by phone, Jim stated that he is supporting Snyder but has not made a decision on either Liu or Gioia. “Bernie says I authorized the press release and I say I didn’t” was his response.
With every move that the political people make and then figuring out the percentages gained or lost with each chess piece moving about the board, these little tidbits matter.
Sunday, March 22, 2009
Packing the Club
Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.
-- Martin Luther King Jr. (1929 - 1968), Letter from Birmingham Jail, April 16, 1963
A time-honored method of controlling a political club is known as “packing” or “stacking” the club. Simply described, either a candidate or nominee operating for a vested interest brings new members into the fold at a moment in time so that at the next vote they will be qualified to make the right choice.
While political clubs have lost their luster, there are still arguments in favor of an organization that expresses the wishes of a community or territory – sometimes pulling broader influence with it.
Downtown Independent Democrats" has developed out of SoHo and has carried the reputation of being truly independent along with it. SoHo itself has evolved from artists who ventured into a gothic jungle of warehouses and printing factories from places like Greenwich Village to escape the status quo. Leaders like Kathryn Freed, Jim Stratton and Sean Sweeney gave D.I.D. a special flavor.
As a result of D.I.D. successes, it is one of the few political clubs that aspirants really care about for endorsements. Scott Stringer, for example, managed to win his race for Borough President of Manhattan due, in part, to the vote in SoHo – and the support of D.I.D. The support of a truly independent club actually does still garner votes.
So, at various times, several political candidates have attempted to pack the club with their supporters in order to control the vote for officers. This past Fall, Julie Menin reportedly attempted a coup (which she denies) – followed most recently by Alan Gerson’s efforts. Gerson was actually supported by D.I.D. in the past but has fallen into disfavor with many rank and file club members. He is rumored to be packing the club so that his upcoming race will gain the support of the club once again. A number of current D.I.D. members who, due to Gerson’s fealty to Bloomberg on term-limits (he supported them) and his dubious record in SoHo, belong to the ABG club – “Anyone But Gerson.” While Menin is no longer believed to be trying to pack D.I.D., as Gerson has continued, Gleason is also reportedly trying to even the score by placing some of his people on the roster.
Gleason has suddenly started to get a serious second look as someone who will respond to the needs of SoHo residents.
There is nothing immoral or illegal about trying to take over a political club but there are certain rules of conduct that have always been followed NOT in the tradition of Tammany Hall. With quality performance in office, a club normally welcomes the enlargement of its membership base from an elected official. Not so, in this case.
The Prosecution Rests
In a recent interview we spoke with Cy Vance, Jr., the frontrunner in the race for Manhattan District Attorney.
It was like a blast of fresh air in a discussion that touched upon his plans for improvements in our criminal justice system. Bob Morgenthau, who is retiring this year, has provided us with a sense of fairness in Manhattan and clearly Vance seeks to improve upon that legacy. The full interview will be published in the April SoHo Journal in addition to next week’s blog. Stay tuned Rangers.
-- Martin Luther King Jr. (1929 - 1968), Letter from Birmingham Jail, April 16, 1963
A time-honored method of controlling a political club is known as “packing” or “stacking” the club. Simply described, either a candidate or nominee operating for a vested interest brings new members into the fold at a moment in time so that at the next vote they will be qualified to make the right choice.
While political clubs have lost their luster, there are still arguments in favor of an organization that expresses the wishes of a community or territory – sometimes pulling broader influence with it.
Downtown Independent Democrats" has developed out of SoHo and has carried the reputation of being truly independent along with it. SoHo itself has evolved from artists who ventured into a gothic jungle of warehouses and printing factories from places like Greenwich Village to escape the status quo. Leaders like Kathryn Freed, Jim Stratton and Sean Sweeney gave D.I.D. a special flavor.
As a result of D.I.D. successes, it is one of the few political clubs that aspirants really care about for endorsements. Scott Stringer, for example, managed to win his race for Borough President of Manhattan due, in part, to the vote in SoHo – and the support of D.I.D. The support of a truly independent club actually does still garner votes.
So, at various times, several political candidates have attempted to pack the club with their supporters in order to control the vote for officers. This past Fall, Julie Menin reportedly attempted a coup (which she denies) – followed most recently by Alan Gerson’s efforts. Gerson was actually supported by D.I.D. in the past but has fallen into disfavor with many rank and file club members. He is rumored to be packing the club so that his upcoming race will gain the support of the club once again. A number of current D.I.D. members who, due to Gerson’s fealty to Bloomberg on term-limits (he supported them) and his dubious record in SoHo, belong to the ABG club – “Anyone But Gerson.” While Menin is no longer believed to be trying to pack D.I.D., as Gerson has continued, Gleason is also reportedly trying to even the score by placing some of his people on the roster.
Gleason has suddenly started to get a serious second look as someone who will respond to the needs of SoHo residents.
There is nothing immoral or illegal about trying to take over a political club but there are certain rules of conduct that have always been followed NOT in the tradition of Tammany Hall. With quality performance in office, a club normally welcomes the enlargement of its membership base from an elected official. Not so, in this case.
The Prosecution Rests
In a recent interview we spoke with Cy Vance, Jr., the frontrunner in the race for Manhattan District Attorney.
It was like a blast of fresh air in a discussion that touched upon his plans for improvements in our criminal justice system. Bob Morgenthau, who is retiring this year, has provided us with a sense of fairness in Manhattan and clearly Vance seeks to improve upon that legacy. The full interview will be published in the April SoHo Journal in addition to next week’s blog. Stay tuned Rangers.
Sunday, March 08, 2009
The Elephant in the Room
The truth is rarely pure and never simple.
-- Oscar Wilde (1854 - 1900)
While everyone is busy trying to point the finger at what happened to cause not only our economy, but also the world’s economy, to implode – consider this?
The total value of the U.S. stock market is under $15 Trillion, the total value of all real estate in this country is under $25 Trillion, and our total GDP stands at about $14 Trillion. The value of the entire world’s stock markets currently stands at under $50 Trillion.
But, what most people do not know is that it is nearly impossible to correctly value the number of derivatives , which are outstanding. These “bets” or contracts that hedge credit obligations – which include bonds, mortgage securities and corporate debts, including credit default swaps – amount to about $700 Trillion. Or, nearly three quarters of a quadrillion dollars. Others believe the amount is larger.
This Wall Street phenomenon is the real story in our economy. It is one problem that years ago Warren Buffet warned us all about and it is one which he recently mentioned when he said he hoped to be out of any derivative positions in “a few years.” Good luck.
So, as most consumers and many banks look askance at the muddled real estate market as well as the non-existent credit markets (insofar as ability to borrow), all are missing the boat as to the source and degree of the problem. We have an inconceivable amount of money (or, rather, the fantasy of such an amount of money actually existing) floating about in the Ether as mutually balanced obligations -- that will never be able to be paid in the event of default. Those defaults are now happening. And, as the defaults wind down deflation (reduction in value) accompanies the entropy.
This, in fact, is what we are grappling with in this economic disaster: The prospect of economic Armageddon. The world does not contain the amount of money or physical assets to balance out both ends of these bets in the event of default. If the buyer of a derivative defaults, having purchased the insurance to cover that “bet” -- and the guarantor (counterparty) of that insurance does not have the resources to cover that defaulted debt – what is there to be done?
Those are the questions being asked about AIG, Citigroup, Bank of America, Lehman Brothers, Bear Sterns, Merrill Lynch and thousands of companies that are defaulting on debts covered by derivative contracts. All $700 Trillion of them.
The Elephant in the room is restless and wants to eat.
And, until he does, there will be no new loans, no expansion of credit for the economy, no new jobs, no food, and certainly no housing. That means the end of the Hamptons economy and a severely diminished Manhattan economy. Expansion and building as we know it is done. A sign of these times is one new phenomenon: vacant lots in Manhattan with "For Rent" signs on them. There is no money to build.
Mortgages imploded due to the phony securities that Wall Street created in order to collect fees and create securities that NEVER had the value ascribed to them. In fact, the subprime situation was only a pimple on the elephant's tail. And, now all of us are paying that price.
It was the derivatives market that spawned the disaster we are now entering. As Thomas Kostigan of Marketwatch reports,
“It isn't the housing market devaluation, or the sub-prime mortgage market defaults that have us in real trouble. Those are nice fakes to sway attention away from the place where greed truly flourished -- trading phony instruments to the tune of $700 trillion.”
Interesting notes: Poland’s mortgage market was mostly written in Swiss francs. Nearly 60% of all mortgages are pegged to the value of the polish currency to the Swiss franc.
The polish currency, the zloty, has dropped nearly 50% in relation to the franc. One can only imagine what lies ahead in that situation.
UBS is just the tip of the iceberg with regard to the Swiss banking crisis – spawned by the IRS insistence that all 52,000 foreign (mostly American) accounts be divulged so that taxes and, no doubt, prosecutions, can begin for not paying taxes on these numbered accounts.
It is likely that Swiss banking, the country’s main industry, could be destroyed by this American move. No account secrecy, no deposits.
-- Oscar Wilde (1854 - 1900)
While everyone is busy trying to point the finger at what happened to cause not only our economy, but also the world’s economy, to implode – consider this?
The total value of the U.S. stock market is under $15 Trillion, the total value of all real estate in this country is under $25 Trillion, and our total GDP stands at about $14 Trillion. The value of the entire world’s stock markets currently stands at under $50 Trillion.
But, what most people do not know is that it is nearly impossible to correctly value the number of derivatives , which are outstanding. These “bets” or contracts that hedge credit obligations – which include bonds, mortgage securities and corporate debts, including credit default swaps – amount to about $700 Trillion. Or, nearly three quarters of a quadrillion dollars. Others believe the amount is larger.
This Wall Street phenomenon is the real story in our economy. It is one problem that years ago Warren Buffet warned us all about and it is one which he recently mentioned when he said he hoped to be out of any derivative positions in “a few years.” Good luck.
So, as most consumers and many banks look askance at the muddled real estate market as well as the non-existent credit markets (insofar as ability to borrow), all are missing the boat as to the source and degree of the problem. We have an inconceivable amount of money (or, rather, the fantasy of such an amount of money actually existing) floating about in the Ether as mutually balanced obligations -- that will never be able to be paid in the event of default. Those defaults are now happening. And, as the defaults wind down deflation (reduction in value) accompanies the entropy.
This, in fact, is what we are grappling with in this economic disaster: The prospect of economic Armageddon. The world does not contain the amount of money or physical assets to balance out both ends of these bets in the event of default. If the buyer of a derivative defaults, having purchased the insurance to cover that “bet” -- and the guarantor (counterparty) of that insurance does not have the resources to cover that defaulted debt – what is there to be done?
Those are the questions being asked about AIG, Citigroup, Bank of America, Lehman Brothers, Bear Sterns, Merrill Lynch and thousands of companies that are defaulting on debts covered by derivative contracts. All $700 Trillion of them.
The Elephant in the room is restless and wants to eat.
And, until he does, there will be no new loans, no expansion of credit for the economy, no new jobs, no food, and certainly no housing. That means the end of the Hamptons economy and a severely diminished Manhattan economy. Expansion and building as we know it is done. A sign of these times is one new phenomenon: vacant lots in Manhattan with "For Rent" signs on them. There is no money to build.
Mortgages imploded due to the phony securities that Wall Street created in order to collect fees and create securities that NEVER had the value ascribed to them. In fact, the subprime situation was only a pimple on the elephant's tail. And, now all of us are paying that price.
It was the derivatives market that spawned the disaster we are now entering. As Thomas Kostigan of Marketwatch reports,
“It isn't the housing market devaluation, or the sub-prime mortgage market defaults that have us in real trouble. Those are nice fakes to sway attention away from the place where greed truly flourished -- trading phony instruments to the tune of $700 trillion.”
Interesting notes: Poland’s mortgage market was mostly written in Swiss francs. Nearly 60% of all mortgages are pegged to the value of the polish currency to the Swiss franc.
The polish currency, the zloty, has dropped nearly 50% in relation to the franc. One can only imagine what lies ahead in that situation.
UBS is just the tip of the iceberg with regard to the Swiss banking crisis – spawned by the IRS insistence that all 52,000 foreign (mostly American) accounts be divulged so that taxes and, no doubt, prosecutions, can begin for not paying taxes on these numbered accounts.
It is likely that Swiss banking, the country’s main industry, could be destroyed by this American move. No account secrecy, no deposits.
Sunday, March 01, 2009
Downtown Currents
One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors.
-- Plato (427 BC - 347 BC)
Bob Morgenthau finally withdrew from the election process this week after decades of public service as Manhattan’s District Attorney. For years there had been speculation that Catherine Abate was the heir apparent and was waiting in the wings until “The Boss,” as his staff knows him, stepped aside.
Instead, as the rumors swirled, Abate was sidelined as the likely candidate to oppose Leslie Crocker Snyder in the upcoming Democratic Primary election.
While Downtown, in many cases, is considered a lock for the Jewish female vote, one of the reasons why Alan Gerson, again running for District 1 City Council seat, may still have an edge. Sophie can be heard in the background whenever Alan is on the phone.
Snyder was previously a law and order candidate who supported the death penalty but she took that off the table. Her 40% of the vote showing in the last election gives her substantial credibility.
But, countering Snyder’s move is a possible run by Dan Castleman, Morgenthau’s right hand man in the prosecutor’s office – as well as a serious challenge by Cyrus Vance, Jr.
Vance not only has name recognition but also presents a serious challenge to divvying up the Jewish vote. His father and his family stood out in fighting for the rights of Israel at a crucial point in history.
Little has been heard from Maria Derr lately, former Board #2 Chair, who is running against Chris Quinn in her bid to retain her seat in the City Council race. But, Yetta Kurland, a proponent of gay rights is another contestant in this race and may do relatively well and has some buzz.
However, it is unlikely that Quinn faces a serious challenge. Those who have criticized her (including this writer), recognize her immense political skills. A powerful Speaker who seeks to improve her ties with the community is more to be desired than a novice with a wish list. And, Quinn and her staff have been moving in the direction of building new bridges.
Little has changed in the Gerson/Menin/Gleason/Chin saga for City Council. We should expect sparks sometime this summer as the jockeying heats up.
A few rumors and tidbits have flown about.
Menin’s new blog apparently publishes on Huffington Post and the site apparently has rejected negative comments.
Gleason appeared on network television to dispel the belief that his 9-11 board game is a flight to insanity – rather that the point was to create publicity for the tragedy. Of course, those of us downtown well know that while the disaster may not have been avoidable -- many firefighters and police were unnecessarily exposed to danger and untimely death due to inadequate communications.
Anecdotal reports of dysfunctional transmitters and garbled transmissions are well documented and the anger harbored by those who know the truth about the treatment during and after the disaster are legend.
In Memoriam: Albert Edward Neale 1917-2009. Andy Neale’s 92 year
old father passed this week after a short but severe illness. As Andy describes him, he was “ a reserved man of fierce intellect, a wonderful husband, a decorated war veteran, a compassionate human being and a liberal to the end who thought Obama was the greatest thing to have happened to the USA.”
-- Plato (427 BC - 347 BC)
Bob Morgenthau finally withdrew from the election process this week after decades of public service as Manhattan’s District Attorney. For years there had been speculation that Catherine Abate was the heir apparent and was waiting in the wings until “The Boss,” as his staff knows him, stepped aside.
Instead, as the rumors swirled, Abate was sidelined as the likely candidate to oppose Leslie Crocker Snyder in the upcoming Democratic Primary election.
While Downtown, in many cases, is considered a lock for the Jewish female vote, one of the reasons why Alan Gerson, again running for District 1 City Council seat, may still have an edge. Sophie can be heard in the background whenever Alan is on the phone.
Snyder was previously a law and order candidate who supported the death penalty but she took that off the table. Her 40% of the vote showing in the last election gives her substantial credibility.
But, countering Snyder’s move is a possible run by Dan Castleman, Morgenthau’s right hand man in the prosecutor’s office – as well as a serious challenge by Cyrus Vance, Jr.
Vance not only has name recognition but also presents a serious challenge to divvying up the Jewish vote. His father and his family stood out in fighting for the rights of Israel at a crucial point in history.
Little has been heard from Maria Derr lately, former Board #2 Chair, who is running against Chris Quinn in her bid to retain her seat in the City Council race. But, Yetta Kurland, a proponent of gay rights is another contestant in this race and may do relatively well and has some buzz.
However, it is unlikely that Quinn faces a serious challenge. Those who have criticized her (including this writer), recognize her immense political skills. A powerful Speaker who seeks to improve her ties with the community is more to be desired than a novice with a wish list. And, Quinn and her staff have been moving in the direction of building new bridges.
Little has changed in the Gerson/Menin/Gleason/Chin saga for City Council. We should expect sparks sometime this summer as the jockeying heats up.
A few rumors and tidbits have flown about.
Menin’s new blog apparently publishes on Huffington Post and the site apparently has rejected negative comments.
Gleason appeared on network television to dispel the belief that his 9-11 board game is a flight to insanity – rather that the point was to create publicity for the tragedy. Of course, those of us downtown well know that while the disaster may not have been avoidable -- many firefighters and police were unnecessarily exposed to danger and untimely death due to inadequate communications.
Anecdotal reports of dysfunctional transmitters and garbled transmissions are well documented and the anger harbored by those who know the truth about the treatment during and after the disaster are legend.
In Memoriam: Albert Edward Neale 1917-2009. Andy Neale’s 92 year
old father passed this week after a short but severe illness. As Andy describes him, he was “ a reserved man of fierce intellect, a wonderful husband, a decorated war veteran, a compassionate human being and a liberal to the end who thought Obama was the greatest thing to have happened to the USA.”
Monday, February 09, 2009
Notes from Downtown
In politics, absurdity is not a handicap.
-- Napoleon Bonaparte (1769 - 1821)
The District 3 City Council seat has been a source of intense scrutiny. From the pre-Term Limits speculation about candidates, which had Brad Hoylman running against Andrew Berman and Maria Derr tagging along, we now have Christine Quinn back in the mix with Derr still tagging along. Various stragglers are in tow but its mainly Quinn.
Quinn brings the Speakership, tough attitudes and experience – as well as animosity from voters over issues like Trump SoHo, the DSNY garage in Hudson Square and the Term-Limits deal.
What strikes many as difficult to understand, is why Bloomberg thought it necessary to push another term on us at all costs when he was riding a wave of popularity that seemed to make it unnecessary. The operative word, here, of course, is “seemed.” Maybe Staten Island is wavering.
Quinn supported Bloomberg and, of course, was backed up by enough Council members with their hands out to make term-limits work.
It STILL does not mean that we are not better off with Bloomberg. It only means that it was done in a “Big Brother” fashion. There’s never a good taste in your mouth after having a rusty pipe rammed down your throat. But, despite all of the Harvard boys around, it’s possible that he did not think that holding another referendum was a chance he wanted to take. But, why doesn’t he now just hold the referendum since he’s holding all of the cards? We all know how to drink the Kool-aide with grace.
But, the damage to Quinn was temporary, just as the damage over the Slushgate imbroglio seems to have passed. Or, not.
Even an indictment doesn’t make you a bad person. It only means that you matter and that you have political enemies. Welcome to the real world.
The difference between having a controversial Speaker/Council Member as opposed to one who is incompetent, of course, matters greatly.
Quinn’s main opponent is Maria Derr, former Board #2 Chair and heir-apparent to the Passannate name (Bill Passanante of Greenwich Village), who preceded Deborah Glick in the Assembly.
Derr, a candidate who has bounced from club to club in search of a political position to run for, settled upon Quinn’s seat after the idea of running against Deborah Glick seemed like folly. Glick is well-respected and, while sometimes paranoid about being challenged, has little to worry about. Few candidates can hold a candle to Deborah’s genuine community bona fides.
Derr has traded on the Passanante name, close related to Carmine DeSapio, only recently. Prior to that, her uncle was rarely mentioned.
But, Derr’s affiliations were what has always been suspect – in a low-level sort of way. Her connections with a group of minor power brokers on Board #2 kept her in questionable company with people whose dirty tricks were not particularly elegant. The level of mean-spirited games played by such luminaries as Alan Roskoff and Bob Rinaolo, or dearly departed Arty Strickler – while she was Board #2 Chair – were mildly shocking at the time but were, in reality, simply comical in import. Her level of sophistication apart from a heavy commitment to retaliation leaves something to be desired, even in a politician.
In fact, after insinuating herself on the McManus Midtown Democratic Club (after pulling the same stunt at VRDC), she sent out a press release with photos of herself and Jim McManus, seemingly portraying support for her candidacy for Quinn’s seat.
According to Jim McManus, who was reached for this piece, he did not even know about the flyer until after it had been mailed out.
He stated flatly that he supports Christine Quinn for City Council. He helped Quinn garner her Speakership and he firmly supports her for re-election. This City Council seat is in McManus territory and he knows politics. Period. End of story.
As a side note, for those of you who are wondering, Bob Morgenthau IS running for another term. Yes, -- and Leslie Crocker Snyder is also running. Rumors have abounded for years about Catherine Abate and more currently about Cyrus Vance, Jr. – should Bob decide not to run. Well, he’s running.
If it is worth anything, the mistake is making his age THE issue. In a personal interview, this writer found him to be completely and fully engaged, in charge of the issues, and in charge of the situation – as well as a tough politician. His prosecutors, like right-hand man, Dan Castleman, are also the kind of 1000-pound gorillas you don’t want to screw around with. Snyder has dropped her death penalty requirement as a gesture to liberals but Morgenthau is still running the show.
-- Napoleon Bonaparte (1769 - 1821)
The District 3 City Council seat has been a source of intense scrutiny. From the pre-Term Limits speculation about candidates, which had Brad Hoylman running against Andrew Berman and Maria Derr tagging along, we now have Christine Quinn back in the mix with Derr still tagging along. Various stragglers are in tow but its mainly Quinn.
Quinn brings the Speakership, tough attitudes and experience – as well as animosity from voters over issues like Trump SoHo, the DSNY garage in Hudson Square and the Term-Limits deal.
What strikes many as difficult to understand, is why Bloomberg thought it necessary to push another term on us at all costs when he was riding a wave of popularity that seemed to make it unnecessary. The operative word, here, of course, is “seemed.” Maybe Staten Island is wavering.
Quinn supported Bloomberg and, of course, was backed up by enough Council members with their hands out to make term-limits work.
It STILL does not mean that we are not better off with Bloomberg. It only means that it was done in a “Big Brother” fashion. There’s never a good taste in your mouth after having a rusty pipe rammed down your throat. But, despite all of the Harvard boys around, it’s possible that he did not think that holding another referendum was a chance he wanted to take. But, why doesn’t he now just hold the referendum since he’s holding all of the cards? We all know how to drink the Kool-aide with grace.
But, the damage to Quinn was temporary, just as the damage over the Slushgate imbroglio seems to have passed. Or, not.
Even an indictment doesn’t make you a bad person. It only means that you matter and that you have political enemies. Welcome to the real world.
The difference between having a controversial Speaker/Council Member as opposed to one who is incompetent, of course, matters greatly.
Quinn’s main opponent is Maria Derr, former Board #2 Chair and heir-apparent to the Passannate name (Bill Passanante of Greenwich Village), who preceded Deborah Glick in the Assembly.
Derr, a candidate who has bounced from club to club in search of a political position to run for, settled upon Quinn’s seat after the idea of running against Deborah Glick seemed like folly. Glick is well-respected and, while sometimes paranoid about being challenged, has little to worry about. Few candidates can hold a candle to Deborah’s genuine community bona fides.
Derr has traded on the Passanante name, close related to Carmine DeSapio, only recently. Prior to that, her uncle was rarely mentioned.
But, Derr’s affiliations were what has always been suspect – in a low-level sort of way. Her connections with a group of minor power brokers on Board #2 kept her in questionable company with people whose dirty tricks were not particularly elegant. The level of mean-spirited games played by such luminaries as Alan Roskoff and Bob Rinaolo, or dearly departed Arty Strickler – while she was Board #2 Chair – were mildly shocking at the time but were, in reality, simply comical in import. Her level of sophistication apart from a heavy commitment to retaliation leaves something to be desired, even in a politician.
In fact, after insinuating herself on the McManus Midtown Democratic Club (after pulling the same stunt at VRDC), she sent out a press release with photos of herself and Jim McManus, seemingly portraying support for her candidacy for Quinn’s seat.
According to Jim McManus, who was reached for this piece, he did not even know about the flyer until after it had been mailed out.
He stated flatly that he supports Christine Quinn for City Council. He helped Quinn garner her Speakership and he firmly supports her for re-election. This City Council seat is in McManus territory and he knows politics. Period. End of story.
As a side note, for those of you who are wondering, Bob Morgenthau IS running for another term. Yes, -- and Leslie Crocker Snyder is also running. Rumors have abounded for years about Catherine Abate and more currently about Cyrus Vance, Jr. – should Bob decide not to run. Well, he’s running.
If it is worth anything, the mistake is making his age THE issue. In a personal interview, this writer found him to be completely and fully engaged, in charge of the issues, and in charge of the situation – as well as a tough politician. His prosecutors, like right-hand man, Dan Castleman, are also the kind of 1000-pound gorillas you don’t want to screw around with. Snyder has dropped her death penalty requirement as a gesture to liberals but Morgenthau is still running the show.
Sunday, February 01, 2009
Frontrunners and Dark Horses
The word 'politics' is derived from the word 'poly', meaning 'many', and the word 'ticks', meaning 'blood sucking parasites'.
-- Larry Hardiman
As the race for District 1 City Council seat starts to warm up there are numerous scenarios being played out in the minds of political junkies Downtown.
The big question is, besides the new lease on life for Alan Gerson, who will be running for that seat. While unopposed in the past, Gerson has a few contenders who would like to replace him. The are a lot of voters who apparently feel the same way. In addition to the race itself, there are rumors that a deal is in the works which would have Alan going out the back door before the Primary to take a position promised him by Mike for supporting the term limits win.
Julie Menin, a recent Republican, is currently a Democrat who is Chair of Board #1 and widely known as desirous of the Council seat. The ill-fated takeover of D.I.D. has abated somewhat and it reportedly earned a bit of ire from Borough President Scott Stringer, who benefited from that club’s support.
Both Menin and Gerson are friends of Bloomberg and were supportive of his term-limits putsch. She has publicly stated that she is not running against Alan and is busy developing a new life as Democratic consultant and blogger (now railing against Republicans). Since there are no term limits on Board #1, we will continue to hear about her views on lots of issues. A large cache of cash and a PR firm will ensure that.
However, some doubt the finality of her public decision and we may yet see some curious twists and Machiavellian turns. As the song says, “See you – in September.”
Pete Gleason has vowed to run against Gerson, regardless of what happens. He is considered an underdog, if not a dark horse. While he has a lot of ground to cover, he is gaining support. He is wrapping up his legal practice and will be campaigning full time starting in February.
He may also garner some unexpected main line political support because of Gerson’s position on term-limits, which was very unpopular among voters. Gleason’s strong points are a following among police, firefighters and civil service as well as disenchanted residents in SoHo and Tribeca who feel that Gerson has done nothing for eight years and then allowed High-Rise Mike another four as a sort of dictator.
Margaret Chin began her campaign at the end of last year and has gathered momentum. She has carefully assessed her chances and is expected to make a solid showing but is one of the dark horses in this race. Her identification with Chinatown is both positive and negative – a strong voter base but a knotty problem with a perceived provincialism. Almost no one looks to the “Communist” label, which was used against her in the past as negative any more - not a few find it charming and oddly nostalgic. Her experience in housing reform, community organizing and social activism are potent strengths.
Evan Lederman, a darker horse, is a newcomer also contemplating entering the fray. His bona fides include membership in the elite law firm of Cravath, Swaine and membership in Community Board #2 where he is Chair of Street Activity and Film Permits. He was also President of NYS Young Democrats. As of this writing, he confirmed considering a run but has not formally decided.
Last, but certainly not least, is the darkest horse. Irrespective of her strong points, not the least of which is a set of judicial robes and having done the job before Gerson, Kathryn Freed is not completely out of the picture. While she will not confirm her intentions – since she already gainfully employed as a Civil Court Judge – there is always the possibility that will have a change of heart. Or, perhaps, a change of direction. That’s a dark horse with a wild card.
As this heats up, we’ll watch the sparks fly.
-- Larry Hardiman
As the race for District 1 City Council seat starts to warm up there are numerous scenarios being played out in the minds of political junkies Downtown.
The big question is, besides the new lease on life for Alan Gerson, who will be running for that seat. While unopposed in the past, Gerson has a few contenders who would like to replace him. The are a lot of voters who apparently feel the same way. In addition to the race itself, there are rumors that a deal is in the works which would have Alan going out the back door before the Primary to take a position promised him by Mike for supporting the term limits win.
Julie Menin, a recent Republican, is currently a Democrat who is Chair of Board #1 and widely known as desirous of the Council seat. The ill-fated takeover of D.I.D. has abated somewhat and it reportedly earned a bit of ire from Borough President Scott Stringer, who benefited from that club’s support.
Both Menin and Gerson are friends of Bloomberg and were supportive of his term-limits putsch. She has publicly stated that she is not running against Alan and is busy developing a new life as Democratic consultant and blogger (now railing against Republicans). Since there are no term limits on Board #1, we will continue to hear about her views on lots of issues. A large cache of cash and a PR firm will ensure that.
However, some doubt the finality of her public decision and we may yet see some curious twists and Machiavellian turns. As the song says, “See you – in September.”
Pete Gleason has vowed to run against Gerson, regardless of what happens. He is considered an underdog, if not a dark horse. While he has a lot of ground to cover, he is gaining support. He is wrapping up his legal practice and will be campaigning full time starting in February. He may also garner some unexpected main line political support because of Gerson’s position on term-limits, which was very unpopular among voters. Gleason’s strong points are a following among police, firefighters and civil service as well as disenchanted residents in SoHo and Tribeca who feel that Gerson has done nothing for eight years and then allowed High-Rise Mike another four as a sort of dictator.
Margaret Chin began her campaign at the end of last year and has gathered momentum. She has carefully assessed her chances and is expected to make a solid showing but is one of the dark horses in this race. Her identification with Chinatown is both positive and negative – a strong voter base but a knotty problem with a perceived provincialism. Almost no one looks to the “Communist” label, which was used against her in the past as negative any more - not a few find it charming and oddly nostalgic. Her experience in housing reform, community organizing and social activism are potent strengths.
Evan Lederman, a darker horse, is a newcomer also contemplating entering the fray. His bona fides include membership in the elite law firm of Cravath, Swaine and membership in Community Board #2 where he is Chair of Street Activity and Film Permits. He was also President of NYS Young Democrats. As of this writing, he confirmed considering a run but has not formally decided.
Last, but certainly not least, is the darkest horse. Irrespective of her strong points, not the least of which is a set of judicial robes and having done the job before Gerson, Kathryn Freed is not completely out of the picture. While she will not confirm her intentions – since she already gainfully employed as a Civil Court Judge – there is always the possibility that will have a change of heart. Or, perhaps, a change of direction. That’s a dark horse with a wild card.
As this heats up, we’ll watch the sparks fly.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Political Realism
I believe we are on an irreversible trend toward more freedom and democracy - but that could change.
-- Dan Quayle (1947 - )
One of the problems in dealing with the current realities is that it is often not pleasant. A Hobson’s choice comes to mind. But, as we all know, not making any choice at all is giving way to a degree of pessimism that makes this blog seem positively serendipitous. Remember, though, if we can’t get what we want, we may get what we need.
There is no secret, for example, that Bloomberg, who is both arrogant and narcissistic (basic requirements for politicians) is probably qualified to lead in these parlous times. Of course, he’s not the only one. Tony Avella is an activist who inspires trust. Bill Thompson is the Comptroller for God’s sake, he knows numbers. Weiner is a hard worker.
Even Chris Quinn, who helped Bloomberg and may now regret it, seems a hell of a lot more human than he does. She’s tough, talented and real.
The fact that Hi-Rise Mike is worth only $11 Billion now instead of $20 Billion that he was approaching during the bubble, simply means that he is feeling a bit more human. But, why bother running again? Oh, right, the narcissism.
There’s also the problem that, as one insider described, “he’s a prude.”
Nightclubs are closing as a result of phoney drug busts, Disney has moved in, Dominatrices have been arrested or moved out (courtesy of Feinblatt who runs the Mayor’s Task Force) – and Sin City is now Disneyland East. Convictions are easily obtained because the money dictates, along with his underling Ray Kelly's corrupt cops, just who gets real justice. In two recent busts of NYC Dungeons, for example, the cops who “investigated” and extensively surveilled each had four sessions of roleplay on the taxpayers dime before they arrived with a battering ram and made off with $100K in cash. Apparently, to Feinblatt, the cop who receives the attention of a young lady in leather is entitled to "hazardous duty" pay scale for numerous visits.
A well-known principle of Criminal Justice, were you to ask a reputable defense lawyer, is that cops perjure themselves but judges accept anything they say in State Court. But even deep pockets do not ensure Justice when the prosecutor is holding all of the cards.
So, the money has cleaned up Manhattan and soon the Death of Fun will be our new moniker instead of Fun City. But Manhattan used to be, well, Manhattan. Now, Daffy Duck will excite the tourists from Idaho.
The real problem for all of us is that what we used to accuse the Mob and criminals of doing (lying, stealing, cheating and making a mockery of justice) – is now what prosecutors and the cops do when politicians want something accomplished quickly. They go directly from political decisions to fait accompli – no constitutionality or messy legal questions in between.
Giuliani was bad but at least he had charisma. His father was a mobster and he understood.
So Bloomberg will now be re-elected because he has managed the media situation and can afford to cram it down our throats. And, never expect to get past Ray Kelly’s dislike of bloggers for press credentials. Once on the ballot, the PR and the pressure will continue and we’ll have four more years to sanitize Manhattan. We all know that we’ve been managed.
But, let’s not allow each other to believe that this is anything more than a high-level con job. In The Grifters, it was called “the long con.”
A footnote to the Kennedy Senate matter brings us to a few salient points.
First, the fix was in once the Kennedy clan supported Obama and no doubt contributed to putting him over the top. That negotiation was clear.
Caroline may not be the most experienced candidate but, irrespective of the royal family fantasy, she wants the job, is bright and connected and is also NOT corrupt. We should appreciate the clean linear quality that is far from Joe Kennedy but not so far from Robert Kennedy. Idealism was their hallmark. While the brothers paid the price for moving off Joe’s script, and contrary to Henry Stern’s opinion, Robert was not a New Yorker and knew little about our state when he ran. It was simply an available Senate seat. It was a vehicle and he almost immediately became a national figure who did little for our state. Of course, most of us didn’t mind since he was going to replace JFK for many of us.
The notion that Bloomberg is a Kingmaker in this matter is insulting. He may be waiting in the curtains (perhaps arranging a late curtain call when Caroline moves up the ladder) but Teddy sealed the deal earlier on.
-- Dan Quayle (1947 - )
One of the problems in dealing with the current realities is that it is often not pleasant. A Hobson’s choice comes to mind. But, as we all know, not making any choice at all is giving way to a degree of pessimism that makes this blog seem positively serendipitous. Remember, though, if we can’t get what we want, we may get what we need.
There is no secret, for example, that Bloomberg, who is both arrogant and narcissistic (basic requirements for politicians) is probably qualified to lead in these parlous times. Of course, he’s not the only one. Tony Avella is an activist who inspires trust. Bill Thompson is the Comptroller for God’s sake, he knows numbers. Weiner is a hard worker.
Even Chris Quinn, who helped Bloomberg and may now regret it, seems a hell of a lot more human than he does. She’s tough, talented and real.
The fact that Hi-Rise Mike is worth only $11 Billion now instead of $20 Billion that he was approaching during the bubble, simply means that he is feeling a bit more human. But, why bother running again? Oh, right, the narcissism.
There’s also the problem that, as one insider described, “he’s a prude.”
Nightclubs are closing as a result of phoney drug busts, Disney has moved in, Dominatrices have been arrested or moved out (courtesy of Feinblatt who runs the Mayor’s Task Force) – and Sin City is now Disneyland East. Convictions are easily obtained because the money dictates, along with his underling Ray Kelly's corrupt cops, just who gets real justice. In two recent busts of NYC Dungeons, for example, the cops who “investigated” and extensively surveilled each had four sessions of roleplay on the taxpayers dime before they arrived with a battering ram and made off with $100K in cash. Apparently, to Feinblatt, the cop who receives the attention of a young lady in leather is entitled to "hazardous duty" pay scale for numerous visits.
A well-known principle of Criminal Justice, were you to ask a reputable defense lawyer, is that cops perjure themselves but judges accept anything they say in State Court. But even deep pockets do not ensure Justice when the prosecutor is holding all of the cards.
So, the money has cleaned up Manhattan and soon the Death of Fun will be our new moniker instead of Fun City. But Manhattan used to be, well, Manhattan. Now, Daffy Duck will excite the tourists from Idaho.
The real problem for all of us is that what we used to accuse the Mob and criminals of doing (lying, stealing, cheating and making a mockery of justice) – is now what prosecutors and the cops do when politicians want something accomplished quickly. They go directly from political decisions to fait accompli – no constitutionality or messy legal questions in between.
Giuliani was bad but at least he had charisma. His father was a mobster and he understood.
So Bloomberg will now be re-elected because he has managed the media situation and can afford to cram it down our throats. And, never expect to get past Ray Kelly’s dislike of bloggers for press credentials. Once on the ballot, the PR and the pressure will continue and we’ll have four more years to sanitize Manhattan. We all know that we’ve been managed.
But, let’s not allow each other to believe that this is anything more than a high-level con job. In The Grifters, it was called “the long con.”
A footnote to the Kennedy Senate matter brings us to a few salient points.
First, the fix was in once the Kennedy clan supported Obama and no doubt contributed to putting him over the top. That negotiation was clear.
Caroline may not be the most experienced candidate but, irrespective of the royal family fantasy, she wants the job, is bright and connected and is also NOT corrupt. We should appreciate the clean linear quality that is far from Joe Kennedy but not so far from Robert Kennedy. Idealism was their hallmark. While the brothers paid the price for moving off Joe’s script, and contrary to Henry Stern’s opinion, Robert was not a New Yorker and knew little about our state when he ran. It was simply an available Senate seat. It was a vehicle and he almost immediately became a national figure who did little for our state. Of course, most of us didn’t mind since he was going to replace JFK for many of us.
The notion that Bloomberg is a Kingmaker in this matter is insulting. He may be waiting in the curtains (perhaps arranging a late curtain call when Caroline moves up the ladder) but Teddy sealed the deal earlier on.
Monday, January 12, 2009
Historic Shifts
It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it's a depression when you lose yours.
--Harry S Truman (1884 - 1972)
One of the problems with the blame game affecting the views of our contracting economy is that we fail to recognize the seismic shifts that occur among populations ranging from aging baby-boomers to new births – as well as flows of capital, business cycles and markets. The ebb and flow of capital and degrees of risk and risk-avoidance – as well as major financial cycles -- are outside of our control. Some of these sometimes generational factors are completely independent of toxic financial vehicles likes SIV’s and CDO’s and whether Bear Sterns or Lehman Brothers have taken the pipe. The shell games going on in corporate America are as much a result of the cyclical forces as they may be the cause of current pain. Even the Madoff fiasco is a symptom, not a cause. In short, nothing that the Federal government or we can do will alter what is about to happen.
We are entering a deep Recession that will become a Depression by 2011. During that segment in our history there will be a stock market rally lasting for perhaps several months, a very brief improvement in lower end real estate numbers and a resurgence of inflation – but will shortly be followed by an even more calamitous collapse.
Knowing this may or may not prevent the S.E.C. or D.A.’s office from trying to blame individuals for what is about to happen. But, it’s important to know that there is no correlation between specific events and the macro cycle we now face. The events we are about to witness are cyclical and inevitable. Those macro events currently affect the evaporation of capital, the downsizing of business and the deflation (and inflation) about to ravage the economy. The inflation, which will occur within the next year or two, will be short-lived and prepare us for the precipitous drop shortly thereafter.
Credible predictions for the local economy in Manhattan and the Hamptons see the loss of 4 to 5 million jobs, a reduction in the number of retail companies and stores through closure or bankruptcy, and a further deflation in the value of real estate. In the Hamptons, home prices will have fallen by 50% by the end of 2010. According Harry Dent author of The Great Depression Ahead, in order to arrive at values consistent with long term trends, real estate must drop between 40 and 60 percent from 2007 values in order to attain balance.
In Manhattan, where prices have just started to drop – meaning, that brokers have finally admitted that it is happening – the slide has just begun. Projects have stopped in some locations and commercial real estate will deflate at an alarming rate – which will cause bankruptcies and rents to drop precipitously. Harry Macklowe’s tribulations are a symptom of what will happen to many major developers and landlords.
Manhattan apartment rentals have already started to drop and we are only at the beginning of what will become a full-blown Depression by the end of 2010 to 2011. The reduction in services in Manhattan will be difficult to believe and the quality of life stemming from the relentless fines and fees that Bloomberg resorts to will sour any positive feelings towards his Savior image. A respite to this scenario may not occur until 2013 to 2016.
In the Hamptons, an economy that is entirely built and paid for on the backs of New Yorkers who buy summer homes and investment property, the only question is whether a Chapter 11 is in their future. In recent months, one broker described his business succinctly, “the phone doesn’t even ring.”
A broker in East Quogue reported that even the houses in the $300,000 to $500,000 range are not selling. Many McMansions have already dropped by 50% in value (if not price) – and have further to go on the downside.
There will be a modest upsurge in Hamptons real estate activity as people try to rent a summer house and pool their money to share it – as the Code Enforcement police (who will be getting pink slips along with many more of the Town of Southampton’s employees this year) try to fine and criminalize this last and only form of income.
Regardless of how Southampton Town or East Hampton Town treats this brief shot in the arm for the summer season, after the Spring “selling season” is over the slide in that economy will start in earnest. The deflation in real estate will be the new long-term trend – along with the tax base that once propped up the local economy. The brief resurgence of $200/barrel oil (which will collapse again to $30) will exacerbate local conditions that are made worse by with a corrupt political bureaucracy. The
flow of easy money in the Hamptons is gone and this will end decades of political incompetence.
Look for oppressive attempts by the local governments to squeeze money out of tourists and property owners who will abandon properties in growing numbers.
While the towns in the Hamptons might seek a political solution by reaching out to New Yorkers in order to solve the impending disaster by working together, that will not happen. Lip service was once given about hiring a Public Advocate to bring New Yorkers – who pay for the economy – into the local political process but until the vote is garnered that would not happen.
Sell all real estate if you can and buy 30-year Treasury Bonds. It will be a long and difficult ride. Even buying food (which will escalate in cost) will become an issue for many families.
--Harry S Truman (1884 - 1972)
One of the problems with the blame game affecting the views of our contracting economy is that we fail to recognize the seismic shifts that occur among populations ranging from aging baby-boomers to new births – as well as flows of capital, business cycles and markets. The ebb and flow of capital and degrees of risk and risk-avoidance – as well as major financial cycles -- are outside of our control. Some of these sometimes generational factors are completely independent of toxic financial vehicles likes SIV’s and CDO’s and whether Bear Sterns or Lehman Brothers have taken the pipe. The shell games going on in corporate America are as much a result of the cyclical forces as they may be the cause of current pain. Even the Madoff fiasco is a symptom, not a cause. In short, nothing that the Federal government or we can do will alter what is about to happen.
We are entering a deep Recession that will become a Depression by 2011. During that segment in our history there will be a stock market rally lasting for perhaps several months, a very brief improvement in lower end real estate numbers and a resurgence of inflation – but will shortly be followed by an even more calamitous collapse.
Knowing this may or may not prevent the S.E.C. or D.A.’s office from trying to blame individuals for what is about to happen. But, it’s important to know that there is no correlation between specific events and the macro cycle we now face. The events we are about to witness are cyclical and inevitable. Those macro events currently affect the evaporation of capital, the downsizing of business and the deflation (and inflation) about to ravage the economy. The inflation, which will occur within the next year or two, will be short-lived and prepare us for the precipitous drop shortly thereafter.
Credible predictions for the local economy in Manhattan and the Hamptons see the loss of 4 to 5 million jobs, a reduction in the number of retail companies and stores through closure or bankruptcy, and a further deflation in the value of real estate. In the Hamptons, home prices will have fallen by 50% by the end of 2010. According Harry Dent author of The Great Depression Ahead, in order to arrive at values consistent with long term trends, real estate must drop between 40 and 60 percent from 2007 values in order to attain balance.
In Manhattan, where prices have just started to drop – meaning, that brokers have finally admitted that it is happening – the slide has just begun. Projects have stopped in some locations and commercial real estate will deflate at an alarming rate – which will cause bankruptcies and rents to drop precipitously. Harry Macklowe’s tribulations are a symptom of what will happen to many major developers and landlords.
Manhattan apartment rentals have already started to drop and we are only at the beginning of what will become a full-blown Depression by the end of 2010 to 2011. The reduction in services in Manhattan will be difficult to believe and the quality of life stemming from the relentless fines and fees that Bloomberg resorts to will sour any positive feelings towards his Savior image. A respite to this scenario may not occur until 2013 to 2016.
In the Hamptons, an economy that is entirely built and paid for on the backs of New Yorkers who buy summer homes and investment property, the only question is whether a Chapter 11 is in their future. In recent months, one broker described his business succinctly, “the phone doesn’t even ring.”
A broker in East Quogue reported that even the houses in the $300,000 to $500,000 range are not selling. Many McMansions have already dropped by 50% in value (if not price) – and have further to go on the downside.
There will be a modest upsurge in Hamptons real estate activity as people try to rent a summer house and pool their money to share it – as the Code Enforcement police (who will be getting pink slips along with many more of the Town of Southampton’s employees this year) try to fine and criminalize this last and only form of income.
Regardless of how Southampton Town or East Hampton Town treats this brief shot in the arm for the summer season, after the Spring “selling season” is over the slide in that economy will start in earnest. The deflation in real estate will be the new long-term trend – along with the tax base that once propped up the local economy. The brief resurgence of $200/barrel oil (which will collapse again to $30) will exacerbate local conditions that are made worse by with a corrupt political bureaucracy. The
flow of easy money in the Hamptons is gone and this will end decades of political incompetence.
Look for oppressive attempts by the local governments to squeeze money out of tourists and property owners who will abandon properties in growing numbers.
While the towns in the Hamptons might seek a political solution by reaching out to New Yorkers in order to solve the impending disaster by working together, that will not happen. Lip service was once given about hiring a Public Advocate to bring New Yorkers – who pay for the economy – into the local political process but until the vote is garnered that would not happen.
Sell all real estate if you can and buy 30-year Treasury Bonds. It will be a long and difficult ride. Even buying food (which will escalate in cost) will become an issue for many families.
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Irresponsible Government
It is inexcusable for scientists to torture animals; let them make their experiments on journalists and politicians.
-- Henrik Ibsen (1828 - 1906)
When agencies like the D.O.B., which has ignored calls from the community, especially SoHo, to remove offensive billboards that are illegal; when D.O.T. allows special interests who are neither residents of our community, nor interested in the will of the people; – you have a prescription for widespread discontent and political retaliation.
This past weekend was the scene of a demonstration in front of the offices of D.O.T. at 40 Worth Street. Commissioner Jeanette Sadik-Kahn, an avowed bike enthusiast, along with a Mayor who increasingly resembles a prudish Dictator (in with Disney and big developers, out with nightclubs and late night entertainment) -- together have allowed the D.O.T. to butcher the roadways in SoHo, Little Italy, Chinatown and parts of Greenwich Village. The recent rat maze created out of Grand Street in SoHo is a perfect example. The adoption of Park Row as a security zone that resembles Checkpoint Charlie in Soviet era Berlin is another compromise.
Interestingly, Margaret Chin, the organizer who worked with Sean Sweeney of the SoHo Alliance, was joined by Pete Gleason and Alan Gerson – all of whom (except Sweeney) are running for the same City Council seat now held by Gerson. Gleason had made comments on the issue and Chin has been vociferous – while Gerson met with only John Fratta of Little Italy and ignored everyone else.
Clearly, all of the politicians realized that they may be subject to the whims of the Mayor (Gerson has pandered to Bloomberg on term limits), but to throw the voters of Chinatown, SoHo, Little Italy and Greenwich Village to the dogs for green stripes and mid-street parking horrors in order to pander to extreme bikers should not be worth the risk. The communities want protection for pedestrians before they start worrying about bikers having their own highway across town. A street where residents can park overnight or legally drop off their kids is a street where bikers can be welcome. A street where pedestrians are robbed of a crosswalk, is not a place where bikers need special treatment.
Everyone is clear about the fact that Houston Street was the proper location for cross-town bike traffic – and it is still the best option.
-- Henrik Ibsen (1828 - 1906)
When agencies like the D.O.B., which has ignored calls from the community, especially SoHo, to remove offensive billboards that are illegal; when D.O.T. allows special interests who are neither residents of our community, nor interested in the will of the people; – you have a prescription for widespread discontent and political retaliation.
This past weekend was the scene of a demonstration in front of the offices of D.O.T. at 40 Worth Street. Commissioner Jeanette Sadik-Kahn, an avowed bike enthusiast, along with a Mayor who increasingly resembles a prudish Dictator (in with Disney and big developers, out with nightclubs and late night entertainment) -- together have allowed the D.O.T. to butcher the roadways in SoHo, Little Italy, Chinatown and parts of Greenwich Village. The recent rat maze created out of Grand Street in SoHo is a perfect example. The adoption of Park Row as a security zone that resembles Checkpoint Charlie in Soviet era Berlin is another compromise.
Interestingly, Margaret Chin, the organizer who worked with Sean Sweeney of the SoHo Alliance, was joined by Pete Gleason and Alan Gerson – all of whom (except Sweeney) are running for the same City Council seat now held by Gerson. Gleason had made comments on the issue and Chin has been vociferous – while Gerson met with only John Fratta of Little Italy and ignored everyone else.
Clearly, all of the politicians realized that they may be subject to the whims of the Mayor (Gerson has pandered to Bloomberg on term limits), but to throw the voters of Chinatown, SoHo, Little Italy and Greenwich Village to the dogs for green stripes and mid-street parking horrors in order to pander to extreme bikers should not be worth the risk. The communities want protection for pedestrians before they start worrying about bikers having their own highway across town. A street where residents can park overnight or legally drop off their kids is a street where bikers can be welcome. A street where pedestrians are robbed of a crosswalk, is not a place where bikers need special treatment.
Everyone is clear about the fact that Houston Street was the proper location for cross-town bike traffic – and it is still the best option.
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
The Political Scene
Too bad the only people who know how to run the country are busy driving cabs and cutting hair.
-- George Burns (1896 - 1996)
The political future of Alan Gerson, Council Member for the SoHo area seems to be a question mark that may be answered by the contenders for his seat. Julie Menin, former Republican and current Community Board #1 Chair, Pete Gleason, attorney and former fireman, Margaret Chin, housing activist and Chinatown luminary are the major current challengers.
Gerson has been criticized for ignoring SoHo, while wasting at least 5 years on a vendor law and ignoring the billboard issue, barely recognizing the pollution and traffic problems and, most recently, pandering to the Bloomberg term-limits fiasco. He has also been silent on the butchering of SoHo streets pandered to by Community Board #2 and Transportation Alternatives -- through Bloomberg’s D.O.T. Commissioner Sadik-Kahn.
Billboard Behind Trump SoHo
Menin claims to not be running, although Jewish females have a high rate of voter turnout and success at the polls downtown. Her cunning and notoriety is due in part to lots of cash and a coterie of real estate professionals and dealmakers who benefit from her control of Board #1.
Gleason is running and takes every opportunity to point out that he is the only candidate that resembles Robin Hood, in a sea of people trying to buy political office downtown. His biggest support comes from Civil Service, Firemen and Police. Although, he has recently been soliciting the advice of activists. Persistence has paid off for many other underdogs.
Margaret Chin has yet to define her candidacy with respect to the other constituencies downtown, apart from Chinatown.
Many over recent years have coveted the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Clinton. Jerry Nadler is known to have wanted it – with Scott Stringer drooling over the opportunity to move up to Congress (Nadler is Stringer’s rabbi). With that unlikely scenario occurring, they’ll both stand pat – and term-limits has kept Stringer interested in remaining as Borough President. There are no challengers on the horizon just yet.
The Cuomo people have reportedly had dibs on the Senate seat even before the election. It remains to be seen whether the old boy (Cuomo senior) network and Cuomo family can press the right buttons. In fairness, however, while Andrew has not been described as warm and gregarious, his performance has been well received.
The Maloney people are waging a feverish campaign to make us all aware of her high-visibility and impeccable credentials – also a woman and an activist. This seems like a likely selection and is supported by savvy politicians like Adam Silvera of the D.I.D., a District Leader who seems to know where a lot of the bones are buried. Julie Nadel, a leading political activist downtown, has not yet made her opinion known.
Caroline Kennedy, the choice of many Democrats, is the darling of Obama's coterie and it will be interesting to see how Paterson plays this.
Nadel, incidentally, is being forced out of HRPT (Hudson River Park Trust) by Stringer for speaking out and it is one of those unseemly power plays directed against genuine progressives in politics. The HRPT is a closed club controlled by Bloomberg’s so-called girlfriend, Diana Taylor and it doesn’t play well with either transparency or criticism.
Eric Gioia & Julie Nadel
The Public Advocate race has had Eric Gioia of the City Council (Investigations Committee Chair) pushing hard – against at least Norman Siegel (Gottbaum is not running) – when out of nowhere Mark Green has reemerged. Green, supported in the past by some dubious characters like Allen Roskoff, who has now slipped quietly into Community Board #4 and is rumored to be working on Maria Derr’s campaign – where he ran her dirty tricks campaigns for her at Community Board #2. Green, as it has been reported, has the advantage of being well known – which is also his disadvantage.
Meanwhile, Maria Derr (former Board #2 Chair) has now adopted both the McManus Midtown Democratic Club and the welcoming arms of Jim McManus – and has emerged as a “progressive” Democrat according to the propaganda from her campaign. She had previously adopted V.R.D.C. when it suited her political needs, along with nightclub owner Bob Rinaolo. Apparently, after searching for the proper venue to assert herself and present her dubious bona fides – she has decided to challenge Christine Quinn for her City Council seat which is located in McManus’s turf. Quinn has been weakened by the Slushgate investigation and downtown residents, at least, have been critical of the D.S.N.Y garage, Trump SoHo and her support of Bloomberg’s term limits play.
Derr has joined with McManus and is attempting to associate her new “progressivism” with the Obama people in order to enlist more political juice. Clearly, the view of what is termed progressive has become a malleable concept.
Of course, claiming to benefit from supporting Obama in a completely Democratically controlled political town – is like asking a New York landlord for a thank you note for paying rent. It’s just a little too obvious.
None of the above politicians (with the exception of Margaret Chin) have yet to really have any affect on the housing crisis and landlord/developer abuse, affordable housing, elimination of illegal billboards, pollution and traffic problems in SoHo to make pedestrians safer; – and none have openly criticized wildcat City agencies like Department of Buildings or D.O.T. – which ride roughshod over our community. But, then, when have any of our politicians acted in our best interests once elected?
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
A Pedestrian Discussion
It is said that power corrupts, but actually it's more true that power attracts the corruptible. The sane are usually attracted by other things than power.
-- David Brin (1950 - )
Recent developments in SoHo as well as Little Italy have created embarrassingly foolish designs for our streets, on Grand Street in particular. Years of complaints about preserving guerilla art and calls for turning billboards into canvasses for contemporary art have been ignored. Even pedestrian safety is ignored. For almost 10 years Councilman Alan Gerson as well as the Community Board have ignored pleas to support Bob Bolles Park.
But, bike paths? Anything they want, they can have. Almost instantaneously, it would seem.
Thanks to Commissioner Sadik-Kahn of the D.O.T. and the Greenwich Village group that controls the Community Board’s Transportation Committee. They never saw an experimental plan in SoHo that they didn’t like.
There was never any rational question about the fact that a bike lane was needed cross-town – and that Houston Street was the place to put it. But that was ignored by D.O.T. and the next easiest thing was to carve up the underrepresented community in SoHo. It was never about bike safety. It was always about power and control over SoHo.
What we have here, now, are car lanes located nearly in the middle of Grand street and minimally used dirty green paint – preventing SoHo residents from having places to stop to drop off passengers, the elderly, handicapped or their children. It's NO STOPPING, not NO STANDING. And, no overnight parking at all on the bike lane side of the street.
In the interest of bike safety, Commissioner Sadik-Kahn, the leader of what is fast becoming a bike cult (as opposed to cyclists like you and your kids), has permitted enthusiasts to carve up our neighborhoods to the detriment of cars, buses, and trucks.
What? You are supporting the rights of these polluters over the serene quiet of a bicycle? Are you mad?
Yes, SoHo is mad - mad as hell! And, so is Little Italy.
Not only mad that the buses cannot turn onto Grand Street and then back up incessantly into the crosswalks in order to make the turn;
Not only mad that Fire trucks cannot make the turn at all on to Grand street (pray there is no fire);
Not only mad that Grand street and West Broadway have been turned into another impassable crosswalk for part of the day;
Not simply mad that this is just a completely stupid design that panders to leaders of the bike lane movement (not bike riders themselves) who are starting to look like cultists seeking power – for themselves – and their deified leader Janette Sadik-Kahn;
Not at all mad that the Commissioner is looking out for biker riders safety and their children who are sometimes into tow on their way to school. (Although many of us don’t have that option with several kids going to different schools or live too far away).
And, certainly not mad that there are fewer tourists who come to SoHo and who leave their debris on our streets as they show off their new Mercedes.
But, Mad as hell that no agency, especially D.O.T. or Traffic gives a damn about the residents and pedestrians in SoHo or Little Italy -- Who have complained for years about people being killed on our streets.
Where are the bike enthusiasts who do not live in SoHo – at the Community Board, on the Traffic Committee, in City Hall, at Sadik-Kahn’s D.O.T. –- where have they been as we have tried to have our streets repaired and protected by Traffic agents to allow us to safely cross the street?
Why are crosswalks missing at our street corners? Why have our sidewalks been broken and unrepaired for decades?
Why do we only have only a handful of Traffic agents in SoHo – from Broome Street to Varick Street – watching out for our children so that we can cross the street safely? Even parents pushing carriages are ignored, to fend for themselves.
CROSSING BROOME WITH THE GREEN
Where is the enforcement in SoHo? The few police and traffic agents that do appear for a few hours a day during the week – watch as residents weave in and out of bumper-to-bumper cars that are blocking the crosswalks against the light.
The Enviro-biker friendly movement is the “next best thing” for a few leaders who have found a hook into political power and celebrity. This is a skyhook into personal status and political recognition. It is unfortunate that these people do not really care about those in the neighborhoods they cut up by supporting pedestrian safety FIRST. Where is the cry for politicians -- from people who do not live here -- to make our streets safer for our residents FIRST -- before basking in the glow of a Press conference touting their successes?
And, where are the giddy politicians who see only numbers in supporting this new group from out of town – on the issue of Pedestrian safety?
Or, is this new movement, which has gotten money to butcher our streets and inconvenience our residents, just a cynical ploy for a political party for its leaders? And, whom are they taking for a ride? Are politicians being paid off? Is this yet another, Hi-Rise Mike ploy to screw the residents Downtown?
Talk to us in SoHo about rights for bikers when we can cross the street safely. Many of us and our children are bike riders and have been for 30, 40, 50, or 60 years – but we all are pedestrians. Where were the snot-nosed kids pushing this agenda when SoHo was the cutting edge for bohemian artists?
The more dangerous the configuration of our streets, the more impossible to navigate our thoroughfares, the more self-centered vehicle drivers AND bike riders become – and the more the pedestrians suffer.
It’s beginning to look like this is just a fool’s game of power and control at our expense.
Is it that the pedestrians are, well, just not cool? We only walk.
If we were, wouldn't bike groups want to help pedestrians first – and then ask US to help THEM. Not the reverse.
But, that's not what is happening. Since the Community Board seems not be representative of SoHo, bike groups should be making contact with the people, not politicians or nominal groups.
We pedestrians and residents in SoHo apparently are not perceived to be powerful enough. We don't have a belligerent,
me-first, agenda that pushes certain politicians' buttons.
Children, senior citizens, the handicapped, pedestrians, tourists and, yes, weekend bike riders with their families - apparently don't count to those currently in office. Since members of many communities, such as SoHo and Little Italy, are offended by this treatment, politicians might do well to take notes.
-- David Brin (1950 - )
Recent developments in SoHo as well as Little Italy have created embarrassingly foolish designs for our streets, on Grand Street in particular. Years of complaints about preserving guerilla art and calls for turning billboards into canvasses for contemporary art have been ignored. Even pedestrian safety is ignored. For almost 10 years Councilman Alan Gerson as well as the Community Board have ignored pleas to support Bob Bolles Park.
But, bike paths? Anything they want, they can have. Almost instantaneously, it would seem.
Thanks to Commissioner Sadik-Kahn of the D.O.T. and the Greenwich Village group that controls the Community Board’s Transportation Committee. They never saw an experimental plan in SoHo that they didn’t like.
There was never any rational question about the fact that a bike lane was needed cross-town – and that Houston Street was the place to put it. But that was ignored by D.O.T. and the next easiest thing was to carve up the underrepresented community in SoHo. It was never about bike safety. It was always about power and control over SoHo.
What we have here, now, are car lanes located nearly in the middle of Grand street and minimally used dirty green paint – preventing SoHo residents from having places to stop to drop off passengers, the elderly, handicapped or their children. It's NO STOPPING, not NO STANDING. And, no overnight parking at all on the bike lane side of the street.
In the interest of bike safety, Commissioner Sadik-Kahn, the leader of what is fast becoming a bike cult (as opposed to cyclists like you and your kids), has permitted enthusiasts to carve up our neighborhoods to the detriment of cars, buses, and trucks.
What? You are supporting the rights of these polluters over the serene quiet of a bicycle? Are you mad?
Yes, SoHo is mad - mad as hell! And, so is Little Italy.
Not only mad that the buses cannot turn onto Grand Street and then back up incessantly into the crosswalks in order to make the turn;
Not only mad that Fire trucks cannot make the turn at all on to Grand street (pray there is no fire);
Not only mad that Grand street and West Broadway have been turned into another impassable crosswalk for part of the day;
Not simply mad that this is just a completely stupid design that panders to leaders of the bike lane movement (not bike riders themselves) who are starting to look like cultists seeking power – for themselves – and their deified leader Janette Sadik-Kahn;
Not at all mad that the Commissioner is looking out for biker riders safety and their children who are sometimes into tow on their way to school. (Although many of us don’t have that option with several kids going to different schools or live too far away).
And, certainly not mad that there are fewer tourists who come to SoHo and who leave their debris on our streets as they show off their new Mercedes.
But, Mad as hell that no agency, especially D.O.T. or Traffic gives a damn about the residents and pedestrians in SoHo or Little Italy -- Who have complained for years about people being killed on our streets.
Where are the bike enthusiasts who do not live in SoHo – at the Community Board, on the Traffic Committee, in City Hall, at Sadik-Kahn’s D.O.T. –- where have they been as we have tried to have our streets repaired and protected by Traffic agents to allow us to safely cross the street?
Why are crosswalks missing at our street corners? Why have our sidewalks been broken and unrepaired for decades?
Why do we only have only a handful of Traffic agents in SoHo – from Broome Street to Varick Street – watching out for our children so that we can cross the street safely? Even parents pushing carriages are ignored, to fend for themselves.
CROSSING BROOME WITH THE GREEN
Where is the enforcement in SoHo? The few police and traffic agents that do appear for a few hours a day during the week – watch as residents weave in and out of bumper-to-bumper cars that are blocking the crosswalks against the light.
The Enviro-biker friendly movement is the “next best thing” for a few leaders who have found a hook into political power and celebrity. This is a skyhook into personal status and political recognition. It is unfortunate that these people do not really care about those in the neighborhoods they cut up by supporting pedestrian safety FIRST. Where is the cry for politicians -- from people who do not live here -- to make our streets safer for our residents FIRST -- before basking in the glow of a Press conference touting their successes?
And, where are the giddy politicians who see only numbers in supporting this new group from out of town – on the issue of Pedestrian safety?
Or, is this new movement, which has gotten money to butcher our streets and inconvenience our residents, just a cynical ploy for a political party for its leaders? And, whom are they taking for a ride? Are politicians being paid off? Is this yet another, Hi-Rise Mike ploy to screw the residents Downtown?
Talk to us in SoHo about rights for bikers when we can cross the street safely. Many of us and our children are bike riders and have been for 30, 40, 50, or 60 years – but we all are pedestrians. Where were the snot-nosed kids pushing this agenda when SoHo was the cutting edge for bohemian artists?
The more dangerous the configuration of our streets, the more impossible to navigate our thoroughfares, the more self-centered vehicle drivers AND bike riders become – and the more the pedestrians suffer.
It’s beginning to look like this is just a fool’s game of power and control at our expense.
Is it that the pedestrians are, well, just not cool? We only walk.
If we were, wouldn't bike groups want to help pedestrians first – and then ask US to help THEM. Not the reverse.
But, that's not what is happening. Since the Community Board seems not be representative of SoHo, bike groups should be making contact with the people, not politicians or nominal groups.
We pedestrians and residents in SoHo apparently are not perceived to be powerful enough. We don't have a belligerent,
me-first, agenda that pushes certain politicians' buttons.
Children, senior citizens, the handicapped, pedestrians, tourists and, yes, weekend bike riders with their families - apparently don't count to those currently in office. Since members of many communities, such as SoHo and Little Italy, are offended by this treatment, politicians might do well to take notes.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
The Big L – Gloom and Doom Part 3
Here's what Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters) -- one of the few market commentators with first-hand experience of the Great Depression -- has to say:
“The market is warning of a coming depression. Next year there’ll be a huge problem of unemployment, job openings will have disappeared, and every business will be going over its personal thinking in terms of who the business can do without.
“The sentiment in the country will be dark grey to jet black. Fortunes will have been wiped out. Thousands of savings plans and 401Ks will have been shattered. Americans who have never experienced true hard times will be living hard times. Confusion and fear will be rampant. How do I know all this? I’ve been here before, I know the signs.”
By now, even those among us that think economists are people who know what they’re talking about, realize this: that the genie is now out of the bottle. Few believe that the government has a handle on where this ship of state is headed, financially. Despite Wall Street and its current health, next year and quite possibly the year after, 2009 and 2010, will almost certainly be a disaster. Even if a traditional-style recovery on Wall Street were to start happening now, there is no imaginative vehicle, like CDO’s or SIV’s, that will be the “next big thing” to bail out this economy. Wall Street may recover slowly from here, but it is more likely that any rally that occurs will be a Bear Rally, to be followed by pain -- a lot more pain.
What lies ahead is not a V or a U – traditional symbols of a bounce in Wall Street that signals we are recovering. The big L is now what is predicted if we are lucky enough to avoid the big D.
This describes a long, long, slide down – followed by a very long period of flat or low economic activity accompanied by deflation. It is clearly NOT a period of recovery – it is a period of economic stagnation. Few new jobs, little housing activity and disasterous, permanent downsizing. Only afterwards, assuming that rational economic policy – worldwide – is put into place, can there be any growth.
If you doubt this, contemplate the fact that Japan was in the dumpster for 17 years before it began to recover. Contemplate the fact that real economic activity after 1929 did not occur until World War II – and that any stock purchased in 1929, which was followed by SEVEN major drops before it ended in 1932, did not regain its value until 1954.
We are now still on the slide. Housing has another year or two before it hits bottom. Many houses in the Hamptons have already dropped by 50% in value and Manhattan condos and coops are just now beginning to fall in value. Many of the sales figures that real estate companies provide are hype. Few brokers will tell the truth that activity has fallen by 30-35% and that prices are buoyed only be the averages artificially skewed by a few extremely upscale new developments which are as close to speculating in tulips, as one can imagine.
Price drops are now common. They will soon be the norm.
With 50,000 Citigroup pink slips, 10% of JPMorgan Chase employees being dropped and the combined redundancies at the Merrill/Bank of America merger, the Lehman fiasco and the disappearance of WAMU, not to mention the bank failures across the country – credit, capital and investment is fast disappearing. The recovery figures in housing are based upon limited sales – foreclosures and short sales. By the end of this year and next, several million more people will be out of work and the foreclosures may INCREASE rather than decrease as a result.
There are convincing arguments that we are, in fact, no matter what anyone does, headed into a Depression by 2011. This is based upon the cumulative begging, borrowing and stealing now going on by the Federal government – which uses printed money to solve an essential problem with our economic model. And, that is, there is a limit on how long you can pay your bills and the interest on your bills by borrowing yet more money. That process, created by massive leveraging, does end somewhere. And, since we are still leveraging our way out of this mess by printing more money, issuing more Treasury Bills, and bailing out more inefficient businesses, the end will not be pretty.
What is to be learned from this?
Nothing. This is our future.
Everyone needs to understand where we all going.
To know is to be forewarned.
Buying gold is a hedge but until grocery stores start accepting gold coins for bread, the only transactions that can be had are with Steve, the coin dealer. It is neither realistic nor practical to hoard gold. And, don’t forget, those who bought gold at $950 an ounce a few months ago, have lost $200 on that investment already.
Reducing expenses, downsizing your business, limiting unnecessary purchases and increasing your productivity are among the few things you can do personally. If you MUST attend a political fundraiser, be damned sure that he or she represents your needs and will give you real promises.
What may be helpful in knowing what is about to happen, assuming that GM, Ford and Chrysler do get a bailout or bridge-to-nowhere loans (since non are viable business models), is that voters need to keep a sharp eye on the politicians.
Forget Bush and forget Paulson – the Goldman Sachs CEO who bailed out his buddies on Wall Street first -- and then scrapped plans to buy the toxic debt which he used to convince Congress to give him the money. Paulson had resigned effective January even before he got the green light from Congress, so he’s already accomplished what he needed for his friends.
But, local politicians need to be watched like a hawk.
In the Hamptons, where a bankruptcy in the Town of Southampton is not unlikely, more local residents need to understand that the Republicans have been running things for decades. They are used to living off of the fat in the real estate game – by taking the property taxes and the transfer taxes intended for the Community Preservation Fund to run the government. Fred Thiele, former Town of Southampton Supervisor, buddy of Democratic County Chairman Rich Schaeffer and friend of racist County Executive Steve Levy – created the Preservation Fund to buy vacant land not to be developed. That fund has now been raided by Supervisors in East Hampton and Southampton in order to pay salaries and other expenses. In other words, instead of the painful decisions, they have dipped into that money improperly, if not illegally.
What does this tell you? It tells all of us that the source of funds to run the government – the money used to abuse New Yorkers, landlords, non-resident taxpaying property owners – has dried up. The entire local economy in the Hamptons is in deep, deep trouble. And still, like before, they exclude the ONLY source of money in their planning or government. Calls for a Hamptons Advocate fell on deaf ears in the past. That is unlikely to change with another administration of Republicans who only want power.
With wins by Obama, Pope and Schiavoni, the economy as well as the political landscape may change without their cooperation.
In Manhattan, there is more subtlety. But, change in Manhattan will come in the form of alternative political structures. The fact that Democrats control the agenda in a liberal or progressive city, may be challenged. As the economy tanks in Manhattan, politicians may find that they do not have guarantee of a sinecure in office.
Fundraising will change. The money will not be there.
As the budget decreases, as tax revenues dry up, and the City and private workforce decreases – and as deflation takes hold, politicians will have to work harder to retain the trust of voters. The Obama win will comfort many but change is the message – not status quo.
“The market is warning of a coming depression. Next year there’ll be a huge problem of unemployment, job openings will have disappeared, and every business will be going over its personal thinking in terms of who the business can do without.
“The sentiment in the country will be dark grey to jet black. Fortunes will have been wiped out. Thousands of savings plans and 401Ks will have been shattered. Americans who have never experienced true hard times will be living hard times. Confusion and fear will be rampant. How do I know all this? I’ve been here before, I know the signs.”
By now, even those among us that think economists are people who know what they’re talking about, realize this: that the genie is now out of the bottle. Few believe that the government has a handle on where this ship of state is headed, financially. Despite Wall Street and its current health, next year and quite possibly the year after, 2009 and 2010, will almost certainly be a disaster. Even if a traditional-style recovery on Wall Street were to start happening now, there is no imaginative vehicle, like CDO’s or SIV’s, that will be the “next big thing” to bail out this economy. Wall Street may recover slowly from here, but it is more likely that any rally that occurs will be a Bear Rally, to be followed by pain -- a lot more pain.
What lies ahead is not a V or a U – traditional symbols of a bounce in Wall Street that signals we are recovering. The big L is now what is predicted if we are lucky enough to avoid the big D.
This describes a long, long, slide down – followed by a very long period of flat or low economic activity accompanied by deflation. It is clearly NOT a period of recovery – it is a period of economic stagnation. Few new jobs, little housing activity and disasterous, permanent downsizing. Only afterwards, assuming that rational economic policy – worldwide – is put into place, can there be any growth.
If you doubt this, contemplate the fact that Japan was in the dumpster for 17 years before it began to recover. Contemplate the fact that real economic activity after 1929 did not occur until World War II – and that any stock purchased in 1929, which was followed by SEVEN major drops before it ended in 1932, did not regain its value until 1954.
We are now still on the slide. Housing has another year or two before it hits bottom. Many houses in the Hamptons have already dropped by 50% in value and Manhattan condos and coops are just now beginning to fall in value. Many of the sales figures that real estate companies provide are hype. Few brokers will tell the truth that activity has fallen by 30-35% and that prices are buoyed only be the averages artificially skewed by a few extremely upscale new developments which are as close to speculating in tulips, as one can imagine.
Price drops are now common. They will soon be the norm.
With 50,000 Citigroup pink slips, 10% of JPMorgan Chase employees being dropped and the combined redundancies at the Merrill/Bank of America merger, the Lehman fiasco and the disappearance of WAMU, not to mention the bank failures across the country – credit, capital and investment is fast disappearing. The recovery figures in housing are based upon limited sales – foreclosures and short sales. By the end of this year and next, several million more people will be out of work and the foreclosures may INCREASE rather than decrease as a result.
There are convincing arguments that we are, in fact, no matter what anyone does, headed into a Depression by 2011. This is based upon the cumulative begging, borrowing and stealing now going on by the Federal government – which uses printed money to solve an essential problem with our economic model. And, that is, there is a limit on how long you can pay your bills and the interest on your bills by borrowing yet more money. That process, created by massive leveraging, does end somewhere. And, since we are still leveraging our way out of this mess by printing more money, issuing more Treasury Bills, and bailing out more inefficient businesses, the end will not be pretty.
What is to be learned from this?
Nothing. This is our future.
Everyone needs to understand where we all going.
To know is to be forewarned.
Buying gold is a hedge but until grocery stores start accepting gold coins for bread, the only transactions that can be had are with Steve, the coin dealer. It is neither realistic nor practical to hoard gold. And, don’t forget, those who bought gold at $950 an ounce a few months ago, have lost $200 on that investment already.
Reducing expenses, downsizing your business, limiting unnecessary purchases and increasing your productivity are among the few things you can do personally. If you MUST attend a political fundraiser, be damned sure that he or she represents your needs and will give you real promises.
What may be helpful in knowing what is about to happen, assuming that GM, Ford and Chrysler do get a bailout or bridge-to-nowhere loans (since non are viable business models), is that voters need to keep a sharp eye on the politicians.
Forget Bush and forget Paulson – the Goldman Sachs CEO who bailed out his buddies on Wall Street first -- and then scrapped plans to buy the toxic debt which he used to convince Congress to give him the money. Paulson had resigned effective January even before he got the green light from Congress, so he’s already accomplished what he needed for his friends.
But, local politicians need to be watched like a hawk.
In the Hamptons, where a bankruptcy in the Town of Southampton is not unlikely, more local residents need to understand that the Republicans have been running things for decades. They are used to living off of the fat in the real estate game – by taking the property taxes and the transfer taxes intended for the Community Preservation Fund to run the government. Fred Thiele, former Town of Southampton Supervisor, buddy of Democratic County Chairman Rich Schaeffer and friend of racist County Executive Steve Levy – created the Preservation Fund to buy vacant land not to be developed. That fund has now been raided by Supervisors in East Hampton and Southampton in order to pay salaries and other expenses. In other words, instead of the painful decisions, they have dipped into that money improperly, if not illegally.
What does this tell you? It tells all of us that the source of funds to run the government – the money used to abuse New Yorkers, landlords, non-resident taxpaying property owners – has dried up. The entire local economy in the Hamptons is in deep, deep trouble. And still, like before, they exclude the ONLY source of money in their planning or government. Calls for a Hamptons Advocate fell on deaf ears in the past. That is unlikely to change with another administration of Republicans who only want power.
With wins by Obama, Pope and Schiavoni, the economy as well as the political landscape may change without their cooperation.
In Manhattan, there is more subtlety. But, change in Manhattan will come in the form of alternative political structures. The fact that Democrats control the agenda in a liberal or progressive city, may be challenged. As the economy tanks in Manhattan, politicians may find that they do not have guarantee of a sinecure in office.
Fundraising will change. The money will not be there.
As the budget decreases, as tax revenues dry up, and the City and private workforce decreases – and as deflation takes hold, politicians will have to work harder to retain the trust of voters. The Obama win will comfort many but change is the message – not status quo.
Friday, November 14, 2008
Notes on the Dictatorship
In America you can go on the air and kid the politicians, and the politicians can go on the air and kid the people.
-- Groucho Marx (1890 - 1977)
As people dropped off their young children today at school, Officer Maresco was directing the Police Department tow-trucks to remove the cars belonging to known criminals -- parents who were located in a No Parking zone.
Five Police tow-trucks cruised around the two schools waiting for the parents to escort their children in safely – and, as they walked out of sight for this 10 minute ritual known loosely as PROTECTING CHILDREN – the tow trucks swooped in. The tickets had already been issued on the spot.
The fact that numerous meetings were held with representatives of the 6th Precinct, Community Board #2, including Brad Hoylman (before he was Chair) and Commissioner Forgione, the City agencies persist in penalizing parents in trying to protect their children. Why would they say that there is no such sign allowing children to be dropped off in the mornings – and that the “word will go out so that this does not happen” and then just continue to do it?
Of course, all of this flows from the top. Bloomberg has once again proven that Ve Must Vollow Ze Rulz.
The Nightlife industry has experience Gestapo tactics by the police, with phony arrests and set-ups to shut down clubs and bars;
Communities have been ruined with Department of Buildings and Department of Transportation actions that spit on the needs and desires of residents – and, lest we not forget –
Democracy has been suspended with the term limits fiasco.
So, now that we have severely reduced crime, the City will now go after parents and children? Do you smell a prude who has the arrogance of power and money?
Another weak link where our Dear Leader can assert his complete control over our thoughts and wishes?
Even our children’s safety is an irrelevancy.
We need better leadership than this.
-- Groucho Marx (1890 - 1977)
As people dropped off their young children today at school, Officer Maresco was directing the Police Department tow-trucks to remove the cars belonging to known criminals -- parents who were located in a No Parking zone.
Five Police tow-trucks cruised around the two schools waiting for the parents to escort their children in safely – and, as they walked out of sight for this 10 minute ritual known loosely as PROTECTING CHILDREN – the tow trucks swooped in. The tickets had already been issued on the spot.
The fact that numerous meetings were held with representatives of the 6th Precinct, Community Board #2, including Brad Hoylman (before he was Chair) and Commissioner Forgione, the City agencies persist in penalizing parents in trying to protect their children. Why would they say that there is no such sign allowing children to be dropped off in the mornings – and that the “word will go out so that this does not happen” and then just continue to do it?
Of course, all of this flows from the top. Bloomberg has once again proven that Ve Must Vollow Ze Rulz.
The Nightlife industry has experience Gestapo tactics by the police, with phony arrests and set-ups to shut down clubs and bars;
Communities have been ruined with Department of Buildings and Department of Transportation actions that spit on the needs and desires of residents – and, lest we not forget –
Democracy has been suspended with the term limits fiasco.
So, now that we have severely reduced crime, the City will now go after parents and children? Do you smell a prude who has the arrogance of power and money?
Another weak link where our Dear Leader can assert his complete control over our thoughts and wishes?
Even our children’s safety is an irrelevancy.
We need better leadership than this.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Trump Safety
The United States is a nation of laws: badly written and randomly enforced.
--Frank Zappa
Walking along Varick Street as you cross Spring, Trump SoHo is a reminder that safety is now the prime issue with this project, assuming that it is legal. After crane collapses and a worker’s death, you would think that nothing could go wrong. I even controlled the urge to look up at the 42 or 45 story construction, which is completely out of place in this neighborhood.
After Speaker Quinn’s hearings and lawsuits by the SoHo Alliance, what could go wrong?
Well, the 5 construction and safety workers were busy looking up but said nothing as I walked along Varick under the shed protecting pedestrians. After reaching the other end at Dominic I saw a few more. Only they were telling a pedestrian NOT to walk where I had just exited. They, too, were pointing up and then said “They shouldn’t have let you through, that’s a 9 ton load coming down on the crane and if…” That was relaxing. Then, I looked up. Sure enough, a huge load was making its way down from the crane exactly over where I had been walking. My life insurance is up to date but would the 3 year old understand?
Does anyone understand? That we have a project where safety is LAST.
Don Ameche and Bob Dylan were wrong. Some things don’t change
--Frank Zappa
Walking along Varick Street as you cross Spring, Trump SoHo is a reminder that safety is now the prime issue with this project, assuming that it is legal. After crane collapses and a worker’s death, you would think that nothing could go wrong. I even controlled the urge to look up at the 42 or 45 story construction, which is completely out of place in this neighborhood.
After Speaker Quinn’s hearings and lawsuits by the SoHo Alliance, what could go wrong?
Well, the 5 construction and safety workers were busy looking up but said nothing as I walked along Varick under the shed protecting pedestrians. After reaching the other end at Dominic I saw a few more. Only they were telling a pedestrian NOT to walk where I had just exited. They, too, were pointing up and then said “They shouldn’t have let you through, that’s a 9 ton load coming down on the crane and if…” That was relaxing. Then, I looked up. Sure enough, a huge load was making its way down from the crane exactly over where I had been walking. My life insurance is up to date but would the 3 year old understand?
Does anyone understand? That we have a project where safety is LAST.
Don Ameche and Bob Dylan were wrong. Some things don’t change
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
The Mean Streets of SoHo
Politics... have always been the systematic organization of hatreds.
-- Henry Brooks Adams
Has anyone noticed that Grand Street has been turned into a rat maze?
In an industrial, manufacturing zone (why Chris Quinn and Hi-Rise Mike still let developers put up hotels in SoHo with no review) we have trucks that cannot turn the corner and children than cannot cross the street. We have parents that cannot cross the street with baby carriages. We have lots of space for bikes, though. Although, there are few bikes and lots of pushcarts, and homeless carts with bottles and cans. Of course, no one can stop to drop off their children or park overnight on one side of the street – now that there is “No Stopping.” Not to mention the fact that there are now cars parked in the middle of the street with grid-work lines galore. It looks like a board game.
(GRAND STREET. CARS IN LANE NEXT TO GREEN PATH ARE PARKED)
There are other areas in the City which are extremely upset as well. It seems that in Brooklyn, 30 blocks have lost their parking on both sides of the street. Apparently, there is a Mayoral Directive that is not subject to any community review at all. Read the comment sections on StreetsBlog.
It's too bad we don’t have more artwork in SoHo instead. The billboards are still everywhere, though. None of the politicians or the Community Board did anything about that. No public or guerilla art was ever saved or supported; nor has there been any effort to give Bob Bolles park any support –- although, Alan Gerson gave a million bucks to just one Village park. And, pedestrians have been completly overlooked.
So, its the Department of Transportation, another of Bloomberg’s autonomous fiefdoms like the Building Department, which apparently decides what they want to do with minimal discussions (and great support from members of the Transportation Committee who do not allow disagreement from SoHo). D.O.T. just makes a decision without the residents and they simply implement their plans, as they did on Grand Street.
(BROADWAY BUS ISLAND IN SOHO)
No one in SoHo knew about the Broadway islands either and no one in SoHo knew about the impending destruction of Grand Street. When Commissioner Janette Sadik-Kahn, Bloomberg’s current Commissioner of D.O.T., permits press conferences to announce their plans -- it is interesting to note that Transportation Alternatives (a bike advocacy organization) often appears at photo ops -- but no one from SoHo is ever invited – even when it affects our community. One can only wonder why. Is it perhaps because we either don’t know what is happening or may not agree with it? The controversy involving the Public Theatre is an additional case in point with respect to D.O.T.
Much of the current “planning” involving SoHo dates back to the reign of D.O.T. Commissioner Iris Weinshall, Senator Schumer’s wife, when the Houston Street Reconstruction was in its planning stages. THAT was the street, which was originally to have provided a cross-Manhattan route for bikes – which in a half-assed way, Grand Street has been elected to be. Even bike enthusiasts were in favor of Houston Street with curbs to protect them.
(HOUSTON STREET)
It was rejected by D.O.T. because of a study in, are you ready for this, Idaho, which claimed that that route was unsafe. Since Houston Street was comletely reconstructed, THAT was the street which should have benefited from a rational cross-Manhattan bike lane. It would have been a win-win situation for pedestrians, vehicular traffic AND bikers. What we wound up with is a route, which has been installed without notice or truly open meetings. Those who did know and attended from SoHo were silenced early on by the Community Board #2 Transportation Committee. At the Community Board it was badly advertised and very poorly decided. Opposition was not tolerated because D.O.T. mandated that it be done. The horrendous decisions were made for a community on narrow clogged streets in SoHo – with the help of a politicized Community Board. So, what we now have is a poorly designed, chopped up street which is ruining businesses (no parking or stopping allowed anytime), and which is confusing motorists, impeding traffic and limiting the flow of trucks in an area that is already overburdened by the Holland Tunnel.
(BROOME STREET & WEST BROADAY)
But, that’s only part of the picture.
This is an example of a small group of NIMBYists running the Community Board Traffic and Transportation Committee – Chaired by Shirley Secunda and Ian Dutton who live in Greenwich Village – making poor decisions out of allegiance to the D.O.T. without permitting any serious input from SoHo. Residents would demonstrate if the Grand Street plan were ever tried in Greenwich Village.
(GREENWICH VILLAGE BIKE LANES -BLEECKER top HUDSON bottom)
This appears to be the local version of the Stockholm syndrome on that committee -- psychologically held hostage to the D.O.T.'s wishes and desires.
Board Chair Hoylman needs to revisit this decision and reverse it, if he has the guts to confront the Mayor and his flunkies.
Why? Because, the quality of life in SoHo demands it. We are a small community, not a testing ground for out-of-town
bike enthusiasts who want SoHo to be their playground. Do a bang-up job of protecting bikers on Houston Street where there is room for it and get rid of the junk and crazy stripes on Grand Street! Support for rational bike lanes have support. What has been done on Grand Street is completely unacceptable to residents.
Here’s the big problem: Everyone has ignored the plight of PEDESTRIANS - FIRST - in SoHo. That MUST be the priority.
Caregivers pushing baby carriages, elderly crossing the street, parents taking their children for a walk cannot do so without being accosted by cars, trucks, buses, and now bikes. We have new green pathways carved out of our streets, which makes an insane state of confusion – and no crosswalks for pedestrians. Residents cannot legally pull over their cars where they live to load or unload groceries or drop off children safely. In the few areas where there are crosswalks, there are no D.O.T. officers to protect them. Try to walk across the street on weekends at West Broadway and Broome Street, if you dare. No tickets are given out and pedestrians, who cross where there are D.O.T. officers, are often ignored if there is less than 4 inches between cars – even when the person has the light. On Bleecker Street and 7th Avenue South in the Village a whole team of cops ticket cars simply for not using a turn signal. There are no cops in SoHo, except the Midtown Taskforce a few hours a weekday at two intersections.
But, step on a green pathway and an irate biker will scream at you or hit you as they drive the wrong way on these paths. This is not Denmark, where street paths were planned out decades ago for the benefit of a society that supports biking -- which is NOT at the expense of pedestrian safety.
Shall we paint green paths on all Village thoroughfares, place protrusions in the middle of those streets, and park cars in the middle of the street and eliminate overnight parking in most areas? Remember, many of these streets are in landmarked areas in SoHo. And, there are only four cross streets in all of SoHo. But, we know that won’t happen. The D.O.T. Commissioner knows better to pick a fight with a Community Board that is stacked for the Village and against SoHo. We have no such support from our politicians.
We have broken or completely missing crosswalks, missing cobblestones, decaying or broken sidewalks, no protection from D.O.T. officers, and no pedestrian safety. NONE of the streets in Greenwich Village have been treated like Grand Street. None exist Uptown.
(CURRENT CONDITION OF SOHO CROSSWALKS - photo: Beat Keerl)
As a friend on the upper East Side recently said when asked about the Grand Street problem: “They wouldn’t tolerate this where I live.”
Are we, in SoHo, to be treated like guinea pigs for the D.O.T. Commissioner’s friends -- who would like to live and party in SoHo – and who would like to tell us how we should live? Are we the underrepresented neighborhood where the Community Board performs its experiments to save themselves discomforts?
We in SoHo, who provide the City with an arts heritage, put up with endless Film shoots, suffer from illegal billboards, breathe Downtown’s pollution from the Holland Tunnel, and bring money to the City coffers – get nothing in return. We get no support from Mr. Gerson, our Councilman, nothing but promises from Mr. Stringer, the Borough President, and absolutely nothing from the Speaker, Christine Quinn, who has let our community be developed mindlessly and then sold out to Bloomberg.
Remember this when you get your next fundraiser invitation.
-- Henry Brooks Adams
Has anyone noticed that Grand Street has been turned into a rat maze?
In an industrial, manufacturing zone (why Chris Quinn and Hi-Rise Mike still let developers put up hotels in SoHo with no review) we have trucks that cannot turn the corner and children than cannot cross the street. We have parents that cannot cross the street with baby carriages. We have lots of space for bikes, though. Although, there are few bikes and lots of pushcarts, and homeless carts with bottles and cans. Of course, no one can stop to drop off their children or park overnight on one side of the street – now that there is “No Stopping.” Not to mention the fact that there are now cars parked in the middle of the street with grid-work lines galore. It looks like a board game.
(GRAND STREET. CARS IN LANE NEXT TO GREEN PATH ARE PARKED)
There are other areas in the City which are extremely upset as well. It seems that in Brooklyn, 30 blocks have lost their parking on both sides of the street. Apparently, there is a Mayoral Directive that is not subject to any community review at all. Read the comment sections on StreetsBlog.
It's too bad we don’t have more artwork in SoHo instead. The billboards are still everywhere, though. None of the politicians or the Community Board did anything about that. No public or guerilla art was ever saved or supported; nor has there been any effort to give Bob Bolles park any support –- although, Alan Gerson gave a million bucks to just one Village park. And, pedestrians have been completly overlooked.
So, its the Department of Transportation, another of Bloomberg’s autonomous fiefdoms like the Building Department, which apparently decides what they want to do with minimal discussions (and great support from members of the Transportation Committee who do not allow disagreement from SoHo). D.O.T. just makes a decision without the residents and they simply implement their plans, as they did on Grand Street.
(BROADWAY BUS ISLAND IN SOHO)
No one in SoHo knew about the Broadway islands either and no one in SoHo knew about the impending destruction of Grand Street. When Commissioner Janette Sadik-Kahn, Bloomberg’s current Commissioner of D.O.T., permits press conferences to announce their plans -- it is interesting to note that Transportation Alternatives (a bike advocacy organization) often appears at photo ops -- but no one from SoHo is ever invited – even when it affects our community. One can only wonder why. Is it perhaps because we either don’t know what is happening or may not agree with it? The controversy involving the Public Theatre is an additional case in point with respect to D.O.T.
Much of the current “planning” involving SoHo dates back to the reign of D.O.T. Commissioner Iris Weinshall, Senator Schumer’s wife, when the Houston Street Reconstruction was in its planning stages. THAT was the street, which was originally to have provided a cross-Manhattan route for bikes – which in a half-assed way, Grand Street has been elected to be. Even bike enthusiasts were in favor of Houston Street with curbs to protect them.
(HOUSTON STREET)
It was rejected by D.O.T. because of a study in, are you ready for this, Idaho, which claimed that that route was unsafe. Since Houston Street was comletely reconstructed, THAT was the street which should have benefited from a rational cross-Manhattan bike lane. It would have been a win-win situation for pedestrians, vehicular traffic AND bikers. What we wound up with is a route, which has been installed without notice or truly open meetings. Those who did know and attended from SoHo were silenced early on by the Community Board #2 Transportation Committee. At the Community Board it was badly advertised and very poorly decided. Opposition was not tolerated because D.O.T. mandated that it be done. The horrendous decisions were made for a community on narrow clogged streets in SoHo – with the help of a politicized Community Board. So, what we now have is a poorly designed, chopped up street which is ruining businesses (no parking or stopping allowed anytime), and which is confusing motorists, impeding traffic and limiting the flow of trucks in an area that is already overburdened by the Holland Tunnel.
(BROOME STREET & WEST BROADAY)
But, that’s only part of the picture.
This is an example of a small group of NIMBYists running the Community Board Traffic and Transportation Committee – Chaired by Shirley Secunda and Ian Dutton who live in Greenwich Village – making poor decisions out of allegiance to the D.O.T. without permitting any serious input from SoHo. Residents would demonstrate if the Grand Street plan were ever tried in Greenwich Village.
(GREENWICH VILLAGE BIKE LANES -BLEECKER top HUDSON bottom)
This appears to be the local version of the Stockholm syndrome on that committee -- psychologically held hostage to the D.O.T.'s wishes and desires.
Board Chair Hoylman needs to revisit this decision and reverse it, if he has the guts to confront the Mayor and his flunkies.
Why? Because, the quality of life in SoHo demands it. We are a small community, not a testing ground for out-of-town
bike enthusiasts who want SoHo to be their playground. Do a bang-up job of protecting bikers on Houston Street where there is room for it and get rid of the junk and crazy stripes on Grand Street! Support for rational bike lanes have support. What has been done on Grand Street is completely unacceptable to residents.
Here’s the big problem: Everyone has ignored the plight of PEDESTRIANS - FIRST - in SoHo. That MUST be the priority.
Caregivers pushing baby carriages, elderly crossing the street, parents taking their children for a walk cannot do so without being accosted by cars, trucks, buses, and now bikes. We have new green pathways carved out of our streets, which makes an insane state of confusion – and no crosswalks for pedestrians. Residents cannot legally pull over their cars where they live to load or unload groceries or drop off children safely. In the few areas where there are crosswalks, there are no D.O.T. officers to protect them. Try to walk across the street on weekends at West Broadway and Broome Street, if you dare. No tickets are given out and pedestrians, who cross where there are D.O.T. officers, are often ignored if there is less than 4 inches between cars – even when the person has the light. On Bleecker Street and 7th Avenue South in the Village a whole team of cops ticket cars simply for not using a turn signal. There are no cops in SoHo, except the Midtown Taskforce a few hours a weekday at two intersections.
But, step on a green pathway and an irate biker will scream at you or hit you as they drive the wrong way on these paths. This is not Denmark, where street paths were planned out decades ago for the benefit of a society that supports biking -- which is NOT at the expense of pedestrian safety.
Shall we paint green paths on all Village thoroughfares, place protrusions in the middle of those streets, and park cars in the middle of the street and eliminate overnight parking in most areas? Remember, many of these streets are in landmarked areas in SoHo. And, there are only four cross streets in all of SoHo. But, we know that won’t happen. The D.O.T. Commissioner knows better to pick a fight with a Community Board that is stacked for the Village and against SoHo. We have no such support from our politicians.
We have broken or completely missing crosswalks, missing cobblestones, decaying or broken sidewalks, no protection from D.O.T. officers, and no pedestrian safety. NONE of the streets in Greenwich Village have been treated like Grand Street. None exist Uptown.
(CURRENT CONDITION OF SOHO CROSSWALKS - photo: Beat Keerl)
As a friend on the upper East Side recently said when asked about the Grand Street problem: “They wouldn’t tolerate this where I live.”
Are we, in SoHo, to be treated like guinea pigs for the D.O.T. Commissioner’s friends -- who would like to live and party in SoHo – and who would like to tell us how we should live? Are we the underrepresented neighborhood where the Community Board performs its experiments to save themselves discomforts?
We in SoHo, who provide the City with an arts heritage, put up with endless Film shoots, suffer from illegal billboards, breathe Downtown’s pollution from the Holland Tunnel, and bring money to the City coffers – get nothing in return. We get no support from Mr. Gerson, our Councilman, nothing but promises from Mr. Stringer, the Borough President, and absolutely nothing from the Speaker, Christine Quinn, who has let our community be developed mindlessly and then sold out to Bloomberg.
Remember this when you get your next fundraiser invitation.
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
The Hobgoblins of Inconsistency
Ninety percent of the politicians give the other ten percent a bad reputation.
--Henry Kissinger (1923 - )
For a good read on the term-limits saga, Henry Stern’s continuing reportage and commentary gives you some pithy views of how the game is playing out. The latest round of political posturing seems to suggest that Speaker Quinn expects more than she is getting from Hi-Rise Mike’s staff. And, while she expects a plum appointment in his new third term for rounding up the natives to push through the Council vote, all is already not golden. Whether the Councilmembers' compliant efforts will be rewarded by another term, or whether either the Council vote will be reversed by the Justice Department (not likely), or whether voters turn out the quislings at the polls next year (likely) – remains to be seen.
What is more likely, and is being played out right now – is that having produced the required vote, many Councilmembers are feeling their oats. They are giving Quinn and Bloomberg a little stress.
While politics is a many faceted game, three-dimensional chess comes to mind. And, it should not be lost on any of us that while the media has been brainwashing everyone about Mike’s much-touted popularity, never discount a multi-leveled plan that anticipates a Love Fest when our Mayor “relents” and decides upon having another special referendum to confirm his high level of morality and support for democracy. Can’t you see the hugging and kissing in the streets as we all learn to love Big Brother – with the big fat checkbook – when we are told there will be a referendum after all?
But, don’t expect love and kisses from Downtown where the hotels are sprouting like daisies – as the City agencies ignore tenants and residents who are being sold out for the benefit of developers. Hotels, a fake 45 stories Trump condo and a 3 District Sanitation garage, to boot.
Quinn has practically signed her soul away for Mikey, Alan Gerson has sold out SoHo -- and the voters will remember. Apparently, a new blog/website devoted to Quinn’s questionable popularity has recently appeared. Can Gerson’s be far behind?
While the term-limits fiasco plays out, many of the Downtowners are figuring out what their next job will be. Whether they will run, whether they can run, whether the on-again, off-again pleasures of Mikey will change yet again.
Gerson is running for his seat again and the likely opponents will be Pete Gleason and Margaret Chin. Menin will likely not challenge Gerson. Gerson may be vulnerable despite the fact that he’s a “nice guy.”
Gleason is tenacious, close to the unions, and committed. He is known as someone who remembers his friends and hires people who, when they pick up the office phone, will be able to answer a question. Jim McManus said of those he has supported, “you can pick up the phone and get him on the line.”
Margaret Chin is still a bit of a cipher. She is well respected in the Asian community but has not yet broken out of that provincial mold in some people’s minds. She is enormously effective and has become a solid supporter of stabilized tenants. But, again, it has been limited to the Chinatown community. Her intelligence and drive is still encapsulated and she would need to be seen as breaking out of that.
Julie Menin, Chair of Board #1 has appeared on CNN and seems to have decided that her star is tied to political expertise with knowledge of national politics. With a lot of cash and a PR firm behind her, the reality of what she really knows or understands is debatable. There have been a few snickers, however, by Downtown political junkies over that. While the clamor over the aborted D.I.D. incursion has subsided it is unknown whether this permanently damaged her support – at least outside of Community Board #1. Menin’s evaluation of a run for City Council seat may have as much to do with Alan’s omnipresent Jewish mother (Sophie) as any political issue. It is widely assumed that Jewish females have a lock on downtown voters. Menin has made numerous mistakes, including taking the advice of a small coterie of Downtown activists who are about as community-minded as Genghis Khan.
So, we may or may not have another five years of Alan, based upon how loudly Sophie yells out at him from behind the phone. We all await the Vendor Law, for example, in SoHo after what could only kindly be called “minimalist” politics. Nothing else, after all, has happened for SoHo in eight years.
There are positive expectations that Daniel Squadron will give SoHo residents a much-awaited shot in the arm. With numerous problems that have long been ignored (illegal billboard proliferation, traffic management and pollution, tenants rights, antiquated zoning and overzealous development, lack of parking, liquor license oversaturation) --we look to Election Day for the conclusion of a stellar campaign. Squadron has indicated that he is an activist and will work tirelessly for SoHo. We’ll keep you posted.
--Henry Kissinger (1923 - )
For a good read on the term-limits saga, Henry Stern’s continuing reportage and commentary gives you some pithy views of how the game is playing out. The latest round of political posturing seems to suggest that Speaker Quinn expects more than she is getting from Hi-Rise Mike’s staff. And, while she expects a plum appointment in his new third term for rounding up the natives to push through the Council vote, all is already not golden. Whether the Councilmembers' compliant efforts will be rewarded by another term, or whether either the Council vote will be reversed by the Justice Department (not likely), or whether voters turn out the quislings at the polls next year (likely) – remains to be seen.
What is more likely, and is being played out right now – is that having produced the required vote, many Councilmembers are feeling their oats. They are giving Quinn and Bloomberg a little stress.
While politics is a many faceted game, three-dimensional chess comes to mind. And, it should not be lost on any of us that while the media has been brainwashing everyone about Mike’s much-touted popularity, never discount a multi-leveled plan that anticipates a Love Fest when our Mayor “relents” and decides upon having another special referendum to confirm his high level of morality and support for democracy. Can’t you see the hugging and kissing in the streets as we all learn to love Big Brother – with the big fat checkbook – when we are told there will be a referendum after all?
But, don’t expect love and kisses from Downtown where the hotels are sprouting like daisies – as the City agencies ignore tenants and residents who are being sold out for the benefit of developers. Hotels, a fake 45 stories Trump condo and a 3 District Sanitation garage, to boot.
Quinn has practically signed her soul away for Mikey, Alan Gerson has sold out SoHo -- and the voters will remember. Apparently, a new blog/website devoted to Quinn’s questionable popularity has recently appeared. Can Gerson’s be far behind?
While the term-limits fiasco plays out, many of the Downtowners are figuring out what their next job will be. Whether they will run, whether they can run, whether the on-again, off-again pleasures of Mikey will change yet again.
Gerson is running for his seat again and the likely opponents will be Pete Gleason and Margaret Chin. Menin will likely not challenge Gerson. Gerson may be vulnerable despite the fact that he’s a “nice guy.”
Gleason is tenacious, close to the unions, and committed. He is known as someone who remembers his friends and hires people who, when they pick up the office phone, will be able to answer a question. Jim McManus said of those he has supported, “you can pick up the phone and get him on the line.”
Margaret Chin is still a bit of a cipher. She is well respected in the Asian community but has not yet broken out of that provincial mold in some people’s minds. She is enormously effective and has become a solid supporter of stabilized tenants. But, again, it has been limited to the Chinatown community. Her intelligence and drive is still encapsulated and she would need to be seen as breaking out of that.
Julie Menin, Chair of Board #1 has appeared on CNN and seems to have decided that her star is tied to political expertise with knowledge of national politics. With a lot of cash and a PR firm behind her, the reality of what she really knows or understands is debatable. There have been a few snickers, however, by Downtown political junkies over that. While the clamor over the aborted D.I.D. incursion has subsided it is unknown whether this permanently damaged her support – at least outside of Community Board #1. Menin’s evaluation of a run for City Council seat may have as much to do with Alan’s omnipresent Jewish mother (Sophie) as any political issue. It is widely assumed that Jewish females have a lock on downtown voters. Menin has made numerous mistakes, including taking the advice of a small coterie of Downtown activists who are about as community-minded as Genghis Khan.
So, we may or may not have another five years of Alan, based upon how loudly Sophie yells out at him from behind the phone. We all await the Vendor Law, for example, in SoHo after what could only kindly be called “minimalist” politics. Nothing else, after all, has happened for SoHo in eight years.
There are positive expectations that Daniel Squadron will give SoHo residents a much-awaited shot in the arm. With numerous problems that have long been ignored (illegal billboard proliferation, traffic management and pollution, tenants rights, antiquated zoning and overzealous development, lack of parking, liquor license oversaturation) --we look to Election Day for the conclusion of a stellar campaign. Squadron has indicated that he is an activist and will work tirelessly for SoHo. We’ll keep you posted.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Capitulation or Repudiation of Democracy
The only thing I like about rich people is their money.
-- Nancy Astor (1879 - 1964)
The problem created by this election is that there is only just so much lipstick available. But, there are plenty of pigs.
Witness the precipitous drop in the market, which will now be supported in our newfound brand of socialistic capitalism (“Disaster Capitalism) – in which what goes up must only go up. If it comes down, we have to make it go up, anyway. Even if we have to buy it to make it go up – with taxpayer’s money – our money. Yours and mine. Clearly, the natives are getting restless.
So, let’s see, President Paulson bails out his buddies at Goldman Sachs after letting his enemies lose everything at Lehman, then he engineers a $700 Billion dollar bailout Band-Aid that will be operated by a buddy at Goldman and allows fully 10 percent of that taxpayer money for golden parachutes. Not bad.
And, the first $250 Billion goes to Goldman, JPMorgan and Citigroup among others on the short list.
Wouldn’t you love to be at that party when the severance checks are handed out?
The fact is that no matter what Paulson does, no one will be able to stop this runaway train. We have Lehman's credit default swaps coming due at auction – which will identify the counterparties- and we may find out who’s behind curtain number two (could it be AIG, JPMorgan Chase or Citigroup?) which may tell us who holding another bag of $100-400 Billion in derivatives.
There’s also the hedge fund disaster - a two trillion dollar problem that has seen over $200 Billion in redemptions just this last couple of weeks.
There’s the money-market problem, which has caused the bankruptcy of an HMO and is rippling through schools and hospitals that used funds like The Reserve (which just failed) to maintain their checking account cash in order to make higher interest on the float.
Lest we not forget, pension funds are tied inextricably to Wall Street performance – across our entire nation. The merger of GM and Chrysler will be another bailout connected to that problem. The guess is that another 50 to 100 Billion will be needed there as well.
Are we finally arriving at the point of capitulation in the markets or are we witnessing the bailout of more than a few Wall Street characters who are benefiting from the carnage – yet again. A few disgruntled citizens are beginning to wonder why we want to push this form of “Democracy” on any other country – as we have in Iraq, to the tune of $3 Trillion of our dollars.
So, is this a bear rally that, like 1929 will take two years to finally reach bottom – while all of these manipulations simply protect a few insiders?
Is this capitulation (the technical term for a bottom), or is Main Street finally getting the picture and planning to repudiate these phony economic leaders like Paulson who is simply protecting his friends?
Counties, Towns and Villages across this country are already starting to head for the Chapter 11 exit – because they cannot pay salaries with no credit and failing investment accounts.
Since “all politics is local,” it is time for our leaders to grapple with the direction needed in this country. A grassroots correction in course for our Republic and the system of Democracy we believe in needs to be reviewed.
We need to stand behind our principles and regenerate our faith in our form Democracy. As with the term-limits debate currently going on – the people voted in a referendum and it needs to be respected. Not bought off.
Buying a seat in the City Council, buying the Mayor’s Office, or selling out your constituency for the promise of higher office – even buying your way into a political club for future endorsements – have all contributed to what King Paulson has now given us with the Bush imprimatur. Democracy for sale.
-- Nancy Astor (1879 - 1964)
The problem created by this election is that there is only just so much lipstick available. But, there are plenty of pigs.
Witness the precipitous drop in the market, which will now be supported in our newfound brand of socialistic capitalism (“Disaster Capitalism) – in which what goes up must only go up. If it comes down, we have to make it go up, anyway. Even if we have to buy it to make it go up – with taxpayer’s money – our money. Yours and mine. Clearly, the natives are getting restless.
So, let’s see, President Paulson bails out his buddies at Goldman Sachs after letting his enemies lose everything at Lehman, then he engineers a $700 Billion dollar bailout Band-Aid that will be operated by a buddy at Goldman and allows fully 10 percent of that taxpayer money for golden parachutes. Not bad.
And, the first $250 Billion goes to Goldman, JPMorgan and Citigroup among others on the short list.
Wouldn’t you love to be at that party when the severance checks are handed out?
The fact is that no matter what Paulson does, no one will be able to stop this runaway train. We have Lehman's credit default swaps coming due at auction – which will identify the counterparties- and we may find out who’s behind curtain number two (could it be AIG, JPMorgan Chase or Citigroup?) which may tell us who holding another bag of $100-400 Billion in derivatives.
There’s also the hedge fund disaster - a two trillion dollar problem that has seen over $200 Billion in redemptions just this last couple of weeks.
There’s the money-market problem, which has caused the bankruptcy of an HMO and is rippling through schools and hospitals that used funds like The Reserve (which just failed) to maintain their checking account cash in order to make higher interest on the float.
Lest we not forget, pension funds are tied inextricably to Wall Street performance – across our entire nation. The merger of GM and Chrysler will be another bailout connected to that problem. The guess is that another 50 to 100 Billion will be needed there as well.
Are we finally arriving at the point of capitulation in the markets or are we witnessing the bailout of more than a few Wall Street characters who are benefiting from the carnage – yet again. A few disgruntled citizens are beginning to wonder why we want to push this form of “Democracy” on any other country – as we have in Iraq, to the tune of $3 Trillion of our dollars.
So, is this a bear rally that, like 1929 will take two years to finally reach bottom – while all of these manipulations simply protect a few insiders?
Is this capitulation (the technical term for a bottom), or is Main Street finally getting the picture and planning to repudiate these phony economic leaders like Paulson who is simply protecting his friends?
Counties, Towns and Villages across this country are already starting to head for the Chapter 11 exit – because they cannot pay salaries with no credit and failing investment accounts.
Since “all politics is local,” it is time for our leaders to grapple with the direction needed in this country. A grassroots correction in course for our Republic and the system of Democracy we believe in needs to be reviewed.
We need to stand behind our principles and regenerate our faith in our form Democracy. As with the term-limits debate currently going on – the people voted in a referendum and it needs to be respected. Not bought off.
Buying a seat in the City Council, buying the Mayor’s Office, or selling out your constituency for the promise of higher office – even buying your way into a political club for future endorsements – have all contributed to what King Paulson has now given us with the Bush imprimatur. Democracy for sale.
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