tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-205138142024-03-07T21:25:45.068-05:00SoHo PoliticsA resident's perspective on local politics in downtown Manhattan.D. Clark MacPhersonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12022489208036655980noreply@blogger.comBlogger128125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20513814.post-68288363523382747112011-11-11T15:49:00.007-05:002011-11-13T10:59:35.884-05:00The SoHo Power Structure<i>“Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.”</i><br />-- Lester Pearson<br /><br />The levels of political power in SoHo, for the uninitiated, rest with elected politicians. Margaret Chin is the City Council member – having unseated Alan Gerson. And, in the Western section of SoHo, Speaker Quinn is the designated City Council representative covering the area from Thompson Street to the Hudson River as well as Hell's Kitchen. SoHo's boundaries arguably run as far West as Hudson Street, depending upon whose view you rely upon.<br />Gerson was ousted partly over his support for Bloomberg’s third term and partly because he thumbed his nose at Sean Sweeney – then, the President of Downtown Independent Democrats. Alan was a nice guy, a much used phrase that connotes friendliness but not political acumen.<br /><br />Chin was elected over Gerson and competitor Pete Gleason, drawing heavy support from Chinatown. She was known as a housing activist and a Communist (in a former life), which only added to her persona as a supporter of the people. Lots of energy and drive characterizes her political approach to most things, but her bona fides as a strong SoHo supporter are giving way to the main concern of activists in SoHo – provincialism. The strong support of housing issues in SoHo and local issues such as the SoHo BID, leave a question mark about her fealty. Hopefully, that will change. However, rumors have surfaced, that Quinn will support a redistricting that takes SoHo away from Chin's Council seat.<br /><br />Daniel Squadron, the State Senator, has been a pleasant surprise. He has done a great deal of work on housing issues and has been supportive of SoHo issues. The only criticism of Squadron is that trying to have a conversation with him, after having defeated Marty Connor – is like sitting down with a moving cyclone. In a previous conversation, we discussed Traffic danger, Housing, Billboards and Art preservation in SoHo. Those issues should be revisited. In addition, Quinn’s last legislation, which sanctions abuse and harassment against landlords – is inadequate and unenforceable. Squadron has a better understanding.<br /><br />Quinn is a force to be reckoned with and despite the fact that she supported the DSNY garage she still has traction in SoHo. While she is often criticized for the Trump SoHo debacle, however, she did force Bayrock/Sapir, the developer, to accept a Restrictive Declaration -- which restricted continuous occupancy to 29 days in a row and only 120 days max per year. This effectively made it a hotel, not a condo. Few people will invest millions in an apartment that they cannot truly live in. And, successful lawsuits have resulted from buyers/tenants who realized that if you cannot live there and that if the developer was misinforming you about the number of sales -- you may want out. If Quinn becomes truly disentangled from Bloomberg, the fact that the Staten Island politicians are saying not unpleasant things about her – could pave the way for a more community-minded Mayor. A Democrat in office, for a change would be welcomed. Both Bloomberg and Giuliani won because of Staten Island support. This may neutralize the threat of success from Ray Kelly, the presumed Republican candidate for Mayor.<br /><br />But, the real political power rests with the Downtown Independent Democrats. While only a few political clubs have maintained their presence, it is one of the exceptions to the generally waning power of clubs in Manhattan.<br />The hierarchy that really decides who runs for office – and who wins – rests with a few people. The President of the club is Jeanne Wilcke, Paul Newell is a District Leader, Adam Silvera is Vice President, Jim Stratton is also Vice President and Sean Sweeney is Treasurer. While they have several other elected leaders, some are newly elected.<br /><br />The political decisions, candidate selection and interviews are primarily handled by Wilcke, Newell, Silvera, Stratton and Sweeney. Wilcke is the public face and leader of the club (keeping the troops in line), Silvera’s expertise is in judicial selection, Stratton is the political guru,<br />Newell is a strategist and Sweeney is in charge of the smoke-filled back room. Together they manage D.I.D.<br />As JFK once said, “Politics is the only game for adults.” And,apparently, they play well together.D. Clark MacPhersonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12022489208036655980noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20513814.post-75033192450376630912011-11-05T14:45:00.006-04:002011-11-13T16:48:56.735-05:00SoHo Politics - Musings<i>"Don't be afraid to see what you see."</i><br />-- Ronald Reagan<br /><br /><br /><br />The professional pundits are already busy picking the next horse for Mayor. Among the favorites (at least in terms of frequency of media mention) are Christine Quinn, Bill Thompson, Bill DeBlasio, Ray Kelly and in the back of the pack, Scott Stringer. And, here's my reasoning, since it's anything BUT scientific, prescient, or even that reliable.<br /><br />Quinn is always in the news, like her or not. The phrase, "I don't care what you say about me, as long as you say something and spell my name right" comes to mind. She seems to have alienated a portion of SoHo on issues like the DSNY garage, Trump SoHo (Quinn actually forced the developer to accept occupancy restrictions), -- and apparently Slushgate has either been dropped or is going nowhere.<br />CityTime, which clearly is a major scandal, appears to have been contained by Bloomberg. Bill Thompson, isn't all that much in the news, but he ran last time and the desertion of fellow Democrats still stings -- since he clearly would have defeated Bloomberg. Bill DeBlasio has been running since the day he was elected as Public Advocate. He's a nice guy, very tall, and seems truly progressive. He has traction.<br /><br />Ray Kelly is a Republican, has become the face of Bloomberg, and apparently has a higher security clearance than Obama. While the NYPD scandals and treatment of Occupy Wall Street seem a little less heavy handed than they were, his communication skills leave something to be desired. What New Yorkers do not want is a Police State nor a mini-Homeland Security Department in Manhattan. Not even all of the Police want that - just the overtime. That may be tolerable for other boroughs or surrounding counties, but Manhattan is a little different. The ability to fire a missle to down hostile aircraft in Manhattan is not a consoling thought. Keep in mind that the outlying boroughs like Staten Island have consistently picked our Mayor with Fire and Police family populations. Both Guiliani and Bloomberg took office thanks to the Molinari's. <br /><br />Lastly, Scott Stringer, has been running since his first election as Borough President. His Rabbi is Jerry Nadler but his press coverage has waned. His original "Affordable Housing" push was welcomed in the community but seems to have gone nowhere recently.<br /><br />To call these comments a scientific evaluation would be ludicrous. But, the funny thing about politics is, the more you discuss a candidate, the higher his/her visibility.<br /><br />Which brings us to the Governor's race. The Governor's race?<br /><br />Yes.<br /><br />Cuomo is doing well, publicity-wise. He's even gotten decent grades from Ed Koch and Henry Stern. Two people who REALLY knows their politics. And, they're too old to worry about whether the politicians dislike their views.<br /><br />But, what's next? <br />First, with the help of Suffolk D.A. Thomas Spots (via the roasting of former legislator George Guldi), Cuomo's major future opponent, Steve Levy (Suffolk CE), has been neutralized. Levy was a major competitor for the Governor spot but agreed to step down after a pay-to-play allegation in which he turned over $4.1 million to the D.A. and dropped out. His former roommate and wedding guest, Ethan Ellner, a title closer, was ostensibly trading campaign contributions for title work.<br /><br />That leaves us with the following scenario. Cuomo wants to be President and may actually get there via the V.P. route in the election after this. Probably not on the coming election but on the following ticket -- perhaps with Biden. Or, he might try it on his own. <br />So, who would then take the Governor's slot?<br />Okay, so this is a long-shot but the most visible, and seemingly-aggressive, and effective State politician is Schneiderman.<br /><br />His stance on continuing the investigations of the banks over the mortgage mess has put him at the head of the class. Having listened to his politics at a political lunch was instructive. Pragmatism, combined with political acumen is his forte. At this early stage of the game, he gets high marks. When Cuomo is termed out, Eric Schneidermen looks eminently electable. If he succeeds in dismantling the settlement talks that former HPD Commissioner Shawn Donovan is pushing for Obama, and pursues real investigations that yield prosecutions and benefits for victims of foreclosures -- he will be at the head of the class.<br /><br />Not to mention the fact that Schneiderman had, and still does have a formidable internet presence. A key to success.D. Clark MacPhersonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12022489208036655980noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20513814.post-46150977306008017062011-07-05T19:22:00.008-04:002011-07-05T19:54:17.921-04:00The District Attorney Dilemma?<i>You can't build a reputation on what you are going to do.<br />Henry Ford</i><br />-- 1863 - 1947<br /><br /><br />With the media second-guessing Cy Vance, Jr. over a very high profile prosecution, the question becomes what is not known, as opposed to what IS known about the case. No one doubts that there was <a href="http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2011/07/post_dsk_maid.html">some form of sexual contact</a>, but it <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/04/nyregion/soon-after-strauss-kahn-arrest-now-shaky-case-seemed-solid.html">becomes murky beyond that.</a> The fact that the current statistics on rape in New York are frightening -- up by 62%, -- may be the subtext to this case, however. It’s the kind of crime and numbers that are very disturbing to women as well as men in a civilized society. D.A.’s are pressured by such alarming statistics.<br /><br />What was essentially a <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/27/nyregion/two-new-york-city-police-officers-acquitted-of-rape.html">slap on the wrist,</a> in the recent case involving two police officers accused of rape, may have become the backdrop for potential criticism of the D.A. – despite the fact that Vance’s office vigorously prosecuted the case. But, what is more likely, is that the speeding to indictment of DSK, a powerful international politician, may have backfired. Strauss-Kahn, as head of the IMF and previously, perhaps, in line to run for President of France, is not a man without resources -- despite his obvious lapses of judgment. And, if there is an undercurrent to this matter, the speed of indictment, as against the rising numbers of sexual crimes in our city, helped create a public rush to judgment. The publicity, the media, loves a good Greek Tragedy – a man of high station brought low by hubris. And, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schadenfreude">schadenfreude,</a> is not just a “disease” known to journalists and the paparazzi.<br />But, unlike other D.A.’s, Vance does support the original American theory of Justice – that one is presumed innocent until proven guilty. It’s just that the media makes that concept unwieldy. In New York there are many media voices, but, in suburbs like the Hamptons, it speaks with one voice – a fearful one where the D.A. controls every utterance – or else. <br /><br />Meanwhile, after leaving Riker’s Island, Strauss-Kahn hired one of the best criminal lawyers in the country and some of the <a href="http://www.guidepostsolutions.com/">best investigators</a> on the planet. And, he also hired a <a href="http://www.tdinternational.com/">prestigious “consulting” firm</a> of former Intelligence officers to work on the case. You don’t want former U.S. Attorneys, Secret Service Special Agents, retired CIA, and FBI investigative specialists on your ass if you have anything to hide. And, apparently, the victim did. Spooks are smart and dispassionate about their business. When they are in private practice -- you don’t want to go there. As occurred in the recent retaliatory strike against Bin Laden, a “dish served cold” is an appropriate phrase that comes to mind.<br /><br />But, what needs to be remembered here is that Cy Vance, Jr. ran for office as a Progressive. And during an interview we had several years ago in SoHo, what was clear about him is that he had purpose and was on a mission to open up the D.A.’s office, modernize it, and bring it to the people in the community. He has been doing that. Bob Morgenthau supported Vance and he was the clear choice over Leslie Crocker-Snyder, a Conservative take-no-prisoners, former Judge. <br /><br />During an interview of former D.A. Bob Morgenthau, known as “the Boss” he spoke of the heritage of the Hogan office and his groundbreaking DNA indictments in absentia – which preserved the statute of limitations on rape. In his nineties, though, he had had enough and wanted Vance to take his place.<br />Richard Aborn, who has done a tremendous job as head of the Citizen’s Crime Commission was also in the running, but had a less cohesive campaign organization. He was, nevertheless, an impressive Progressive candidate as well as an attractive candidate for the office. In our interview he was clearly a powerful presence.<br /><br />If the Manhattan D.A. made mistakes, the Hobson’s choice here may have been in deciding to not allow Strauss-Kahn to leave the country as opposed to speedily presenting the case for indictment as justification. While there was a fear that he would flee, he was an internationally known politician. He is not Roman Polanski. The vision of the Port Authority Police, whose most difficult work is patrolling the Holland Tunnel entrance for “terrorists,” dragging the President of the IMF off of a plane – is more akin to a Leslie Nielsen movie – than high-stakes law enforcement. <br /><br /><br /><br />Cy Vance is a District Attorney who is ethical and effective. His office may have erred on the side of caution and had the good grace to face the music personally. The Media is not always kind. But, in Manhattan, at least, it is not owned. Freedom of the Press is alive and well – unlike Suffolk County where it is owned and operated by the District Attorney. <br /><br />Cy Vance will heal from this, at worst, sin of omission and we should be grateful to have a District Attorney who deals in Justice, not in retaliation and intimidation to do his job.D. Clark MacPhersonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12022489208036655980noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20513814.post-43773701572658884572011-01-11T13:28:00.004-05:002011-01-11T13:46:41.906-05:00Selling Out SoHoFirst, came the printing factories, warehouses and commercial loft buildings. Before it was “SoHo” it was really just a place where you could pick up cartons of commercial paper arrange to store goods, or get floor tickets printed and bound for use on the Stock Exchange. Then, after World War ll, use of large spaces for painting began to transform the lofts into ad hoc living spaces. “Fixture fee” was the financial term used for evaluating what to pay an artist for his improved space. Of course, what arrived after the arts assault and cultural infiltration that followed the post-Warhol era was the immense real estate development wave. That real estate tsunami was accompanied by a new commercial phase that included the retail expansion of Bloomingdale's, Chanel, and numerous Hotels. The "Manufacturing" zoning has continued to permit completely inappropriate development. Although many original artists have remained and are coop or condo owners there is still the bohemian air about SoHo and remnants of the original street art still can be found— even though they receive no protection from the City.<br /> <br />The perspective held by the political structure downtown, however, diverges from the reality of SoHo as a community. Individual politicians have some sense of the residents but the Community Board fails in that regard. There are only are a very few members from SoHo on Community Board #2 and its needs are often overlooked in favor of a more populated, more recognized group of an older Greenwich Village community. This is nothing new. However, recently there has been some gnashing of teeth over the handling of the SoHo BID. Spearheaded by a real estate group, <a href="http://www.newmarkkf.com/">Newmark,</a> along with Thor Equities, Aurora Capital, and other landlords such as PEP Realty and supported by Uptown social interests like <a href="http://www.newyorksocialdiary.com/node/65991">Mary Balaban,</a> it is represented by hired consultant <a href="http://robertbpauls.com/">Barbara Cohen</a> who are pressing for a Business Improvement District. The $700,000 budget, to be collected from businesses, commercial interests and coop and condo boards, is intended to clean streets and upgrade tourist-friendly activities. The area is focused on Broadway from Houston to Canal streets. Like the bike enthusiasts who destroyed SoHo's streets who live outside of Manhattan, this is another example of monied philosophy telling us what we should want.<br /> <br />Residents are against the BID and many really don't see why SoHo needs streets and sidewalks maintained by a private group with special interests when we have a City Agency charged with cleaning our streets and maintaining our neighborhoods. As far as enticing more tourists, that's really a stretch. The bottom line is that this really is a real estate and socially-inspired project, you know, those kind of potentially smarmy arrangements that have deep tentacles, promises of campaign contributions and, dare we say, actual cash being proffered? As more tourists are lured to SoHo, bringing more buses, trucks and autos, air quality is further degraded -- overburdening our very limited parking -- and making it less of a community and more of a shopping excursion destination. In fact, Broadway is safer for buses. Only one lane is left for trucks and passenger vehicles. Who does this BID benefit? Certainly, not the residents of SoHo. The efforts of the Community Board clearly show that nothing is returned to the residents. It took nearly 10 years of asking the Board to support bringing back the Bob Bolles sculptures implanted in the asphalt in the early days of SoHo -- unceremoniously ripped out by the Parks Department. Nothing was ever done by Community Board #2. Only when a major developer arrives on the scene and money is spread around, do they take an interest. Isn't that suspicious? Artists showing their works on the street in SoHo are routinely arrested and guerilla art has, for years, been allowed to deteriorate.<br /> <br />When the mom and pop stores have to close up due to higher rents, when artists have had to leave SoHo due to the exorbitant rental escalation costs and lack of dedicated space, when politicians fail to be supportive in the attack against rent stabilized tenants, the answer is simple: political will is nowhere to be found. Only lip service remains. Real Estate interests and Commercial landlords are behind this BID. Not residents.<br /> <br />The Community Board has failed to hear the residents of SoHo in the past. In this instance, through a convoluted number of hastily called meetings and misinformation, the residents had almost no say in the adoption of the BID. The first Community Board meeting, for which there was virtually no notice, only a few residents appeared at Zoning Committee and spoke clearly about their objection. The follow-up Full Board meeting where residents turned out in force, there was overwhelming opposition from the community. Instead of being summarily rejected, however, it was "tabled" through an artful amendment introduced by former Board Chair Brad Hoylman. The Chair of Zoning committee, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X0Lu14u_gV4">David Reck,</a> apparently felt obligated to support the BID at the Community Board despite the clear and overwhelming opposition. His handling of this is a clear example of the Stockholm Effect in government service. He has developed close ties to developers and real interests and is often antagonistic to residents and their views appearing in front of his committee.<br /> <br />Following that evening a the Full Board, meetings with no notice and no little participation were held, finally ending up in front of Amanda Burden and numerous commissioners at the Department of City Planning, the next step in this process of "arranged" approval. The Chair of Community Board 2, Jo Hamilton spoke with only two representatives of SoHo present due to the lack of notice. Hamilton, despite the overwhelming rejection of the Board she represents, spoke in favor of the <a href="http://www.nyc.gov/html/dcp/html/about/greeting.shtml">BID and Burden</a> knowingly readily accepted her position -- and, of course, the BID was approved. Brad Hoylman, former Chair of Community Board #2 also inadvertently supported the BID by craftily keeping it alive despite serious community objections. Since the BID was clearly rejected by the Board, "tabling" the issue at the Full Board simply kept it alive for Hamilton to later support on her own as Chair. Hoylman, himself, is an executive at a powerful <a href="http://www.pfnyc.org/about.html">non-profit real estate advocacy group</a> whose founder is David Rockefeller. We have not heard from any of these quarters in protecting tenants or SoHo. Interestingly, Hoylman had planned to run for Christine Quinn's City Council seat (in an area which encompasses the western portion of SoHo) but was sidetracked by the candidacy of popular candidates Yetta Kurland and Andrew Berman -- and the term-limits fiasco which kept Quinn in her position and Bloomberg in office.<br /> <br />Either SoHo needs a Community Board which clearly represent its interests -- or members from SoHo should resign from the Community Board as a result of this contemptuous treatment. While this cannot be clearly considered corruption, it has the odor of deal made all along the chain of command. Borough President Scott Stringer, who professes to be concerned with affordable housing -- and who ultimately approves the membership of all Community Boards -- needs to address this longstanding issue. City Planning is a creature of Bloomberg and should be dismantled.D. Clark MacPhersonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12022489208036655980noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20513814.post-46453043797647827252010-12-22T19:26:00.003-05:002010-12-22T23:31:57.797-05:00Are We Represented?The word 'politics' is derived from the word 'poly', meaning 'many', and the word 'ticks', meaning 'blood sucking parasites'.<br /> Larry Hardiman<br /><br />From the Community Board on up, if you live in SoHo (or other parts of Downtown), there comes a point when you have to ask whether you really have any political representatives. Of course, this seems like a ridiculous question. We have Assemblymembers, City Councilmembers, State Senators, Borough President, Mayor, and a few Congressional officeholders – a group of people who run things for us. Right?<br /><br />If they actually represent us, ask yourself this question:<br />When was the last time you spoke to any of them or was able to get anyone on the phone to ask for something to be taken care of?<br /><br />Like, the billboards in SoHo, erected by the biggest media companies that contribute heavily to campaigns. Companies such as ClearChannel and VanWagner, <br /><br />Like the assault on affordable housing -- ignored by HPD, Department of Buildings, Mayor’s Office, Borough President’s Office, and the City Council. Lip-service and press releases abound. But, how many tenants have these politicians helped? Margaret Chin, recently elected to the City Council for her support of Housing activism, has recently been unresponsive on this issue.<br /><br />Like the knock-off trade on Canal Street (hand-bags, watches) run by Asian gangs and sold on the sidewalks by Nigerian shills with impunity – and which criminalize our streets.<br /><br />The Community Board is a political club, which has little contact with residents, except for a few issues that threaten Greenwich Village and owes complete fealty to the Borough President – who has complete control over who is appointed. It bears no resemblance to democracy.<br /><br />The City Council is owned and operated at the whim of the Mayor-King who has the fealty of The Speaker, Christine Quinn.<br />The existence of Trump SoHo speaks for their commitment to any Downtown resident. We were all sold out. Only Tony Avella, among a few others, had the courage to demonstrate before the construction crews arrived on that hated project.<br /><br />From State Senator to Assembly member, from Mayor to City Councilmember, we have representatives who cannot even commit to saving guerrilla art in SoHo, tearing down the billboards, or making the job of crossing the streets safer.<br />The only business taken seriously is campaign donations and maintaining their jobs.<br /><br />Is there a Tea Party in the audience?D. Clark MacPhersonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12022489208036655980noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20513814.post-16014476627045299972010-09-17T15:57:00.008-04:002010-09-17T17:56:57.865-04:00The Big Lie(s)<span style="font-style:italic;">The future ain't what it used to be.</span><br /> -- Yogi Berra<br /><br />According to the media, we are somewhere between a slow recovery and a double-dip in this Great Recession. Virtually no one knows whether we face <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/philly-fed-in-negative-territory-for-second-month-2010-09-16?siteid=bnbh">a slow grinding malaise</a> or a possible drop that brings us to the gates of Hades. Or, Depression 2.0.<br />But, despite the attempts at maintaining a positive point of view, it is clear that what is good for Wall Street is no longer necessarily good for Main Street. The <a href="http://247wallst.com/2010/05/13/the-thirteen-housing-markets-that-will-never-recover/2/">bursting of the real estate bubble,</a> predicated upon the CDO’s and multi-levels of mortgage-backed tranches, which were clearly securitized bombs, is yet to play out in the economy. With 11 million homes worth less than the mortgage liens against them, several million <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/09/16/homes-lost-foreclosure-percent/">houses already in foreclosure</a> with another 2 million expected this year, the combined prospects of higher unemployment and a <a href="http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&sid=aPjDFWbLAdd8">further dropping of home values,</a> provides <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-retirement-income-deficit-66-trillion-2010-09-15">grim prospects</a> for many homeowners. <br />Moving used to be an option when jobs were scarce. Now, moving to a new location in order to secure a job, means <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crisis-hits-condo-associations-2010-09-08">abandoning an underwater home</a> – followed by default and damaged credit – followed by loss of an investment and financial ruin.<br /><br />Some of the widely held beliefs about our economy have been challenged by this ongoing debacle. The buy and hold crowd on Wall Street is thinning, for one thing. Those who bought and held in the late nineties are poorer, not richer. Using the home as an investment, is another challenged concept. Prices clearly do not always rise and your house is no longer a reliable or viable ATM machine. <br />Another cherished concept is the belief that the government, while a bloated entity, protects you. The clear movement of executives from investment banks to government positions – and the focusing on everyone BUT the banks as the cause of this crisis – seals that deal. Even though the CEO’s from Lehman, Bear, Merrill and Goldman were buying insurance (credit-default swaps) against the toxic mortgages, which they knew would default, neither they nor their front men in the mortgage lending business took any heat. That is <a href="http://sohojournal.com/content/schneiderman-new-foreclosures-surge-underscores-need-aggressive-wall-street-focus">a story that needs be told.</a> We might learn more about who was behind the grassy knoll first.<br />But, what is clear is that it is easier to prosecute homeowners for mistakes made in the mortgage process than it is to take down the perpetrators of the biggest fraud in this country’s history.<br /><br />Meanwhile, expect more bond defaults at the Village, Town, County and State levels and a paring back of pensions that have already been hit by unsustainable withdrawals, losses and underfunding. The wall that we will ultimately hit is still years off and real recovery is not expected until somewhere between 2016 and 2020. Until then, small business in America will continue to dwindle in numbers. With the ability to prey on “Mom & Pop” operations by Code Enforcement inspectors, Federal and State tax agencies, Worker’s Comp inspectors, Sales Tax collectors and Health Department workers – <a href="http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/paterson_layoffs_certain_SiQZ4yRomLllOs98ouSIdN">looking to justify their own continued employment</a> – small businesses are on the way out. This, despite the fact that it is responsible for 65% of employment in this country.<br /><br />This is a downward spiral, which will contribute to deflation of assets – from businesses to real estate – and there is a failure to understand and act by our leaders. The <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/09/16/los-angeles-official-disappointed-city-used-stimulus-funds/">Stimulus packages were a failure</a> and one interesting fact belies the lack of expertise. Obama has spent more of what we don’t have in a year and a half -- than everything spent by all of the previous presidents in our entire country’s history.<br /><br />This does not bode well for our future considering where we are now.D. Clark MacPhersonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12022489208036655980noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20513814.post-51255168357332259862010-06-16T18:59:00.008-04:002010-09-17T16:09:43.583-04:00Read it and Weep<span style="font-style:italic;">If at first you don't succeed, failure may be your style.</span><br />-- Quentin Crisp<br /><br />What is amazing about the BP leak, assuming that the rock formation above the pool of oil beneath is intact and not also leaking from numerous locations, is the fact that little has been said about one aspect of how this happened.<br />The Cheney connection (Halliburton) to the oil business runs deep, as does the Bush family cash. <br />As the wildlife die, along with the ecosystems that are about to turn the Gulf into the new Dead Sea, remember that the $600,000 system which is required in Europe – but was excused here by that dynamic duo of legal crime – is the acoustic shutoff system for the blowout preventer.<br />Avoiding that price tag was a much-appreciated gift from Cheney and is directly attributed to his allowing rigs drilled in the U.S. to save that expense. Voila, environmental disaster.<br />As one commenter on Marketplace.com said:<br /><br />"I practiced law before federal energy agencies for over 25 years... here is what happened.. George W. Bush appointed hand-picked oil and natural gas friendly and environmentally unfriendly cronies to the commissions/agencies (FERC/DOT/MMS, etc.) so that the oil and natural gas industry could do whatever it wanted to do.. I actually saw it happen... it used to be that the agencies were tough and required compliance - there were regular rate cases to make sure the big monopolistic pipelines weren't overcharging the public, investigations to make sure the pipes weren't violating safety and environmental regulations, etc. etc. Then, after W put his cronies in place, everything changed... no rate cases (allowing the big pipes to overrecover cost of service by hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars from regular consumers like you and me); no checks on pipeline safety and environmental reports (which would uncover fraud); investigations into tariff violations blocked by commissioners (while the pipe presidents bragged about their "Commissioner Shields"); lawyers that tried to ensure management complied with rules fired; etc.,etc.... All of this was triggered by the oil and gas industry executives' desire to rob bigger and bigger bonuses from shareholders... remember those earning incentive clauses in their contracts!! Say what you will - -the truth is the truth..."<br /><br /><br />It has been estimated that this Gulf disaster is the equivalent of one Exxon Valdez spill, per week. <br /><br />And, wait until Hurricane season!<br />Florida may be the tar ball capital of the world if, as is predicted, the plume (which stretches for 30 miles, 400 feet thick and several miles wide) continues to grow by upwards of 80,000 barrels of oil per day.<br />That’s nearly 3.5 million gallons of oil, per day. All headed towards Florida and wrapping around both coasts and on its way to the Carolinas. The Hamptons may be able to set fire to the waves next 4th of July. <br />And, there may be "fire sales" for beachfront property in Southampton if the plume makes a sharp left unexpectedly.<br /><br />And, Palm Beach anyone? Madoff got out of town just in time.<br /><br />Now, with Albany underwater by $10-15B, California desperate for $40B, Florida hinting that this BP thing will cost them $60B in lost tourism – Municipal Bonds about to tank (Warren Buffet) -- the Eurozone in disaster mode – and the Stock Market starting to resemble 1932 when the big drop occurred -- did anyone read Depression 2.0?<br /><br />Villages and Counties are going to RAISE taxes. All of this while their bonds are in danger of defaulting. And, the Feds are going to print more money to give to States to keep them alive. Meanwhile, we continue to lose jobs and small businesses are being hounded out of existence by State workers trying to hold onto their jobs by taking in money in by any means necessary (fines, taxes, assessments, code violation fees) before they lose their jobs and their pensions are cut.<br /><br />The piece de resistance was Governor Paterson’s decision to borrow money from the State pension – in order to pay the current obligations for THE PENSION. In New York, the only state that has this, taxpayers must guarantee the pension of civil service workers! While many states are rolling back pensions and obligations, New York simply borrows from Peter to pay Paul to pay Mary.<br /><br />Makes you wonder when Alice will smash the mirror once getting through to the other side. It seems saner there.D. Clark MacPhersonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12022489208036655980noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20513814.post-88452218360809616852010-06-07T10:39:00.007-04:002010-06-07T10:52:43.977-04:00Chapter 9<span style="font-style:italic;">Spare no expense to save money on this one.<br /></span><br />-- Samuel Goldwyn (1882 - 1974) <br />Coming to a bookstore near you? <br />No, actually, it’s a Bankruptcy Code for Villages, Towns and other Municipal entities that allows for reorganization because they <a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/coming-soon-chapter-9-municipal-bankruptcies/ option">cannot pay their debts.</a> And, if <a href="http://www.thedailycrux.com/content/4931/Muni_bonds">Warren Buffett</a> is right, it’s just around the corner for many local governments. Only $14 Billion has defaulted thus far, but the cost of Credit Default Swap insurance is rising rapidly on these bonds. <br /><br />It’s a version of Russian Roulette that begets the question: do we bite the bullet now and reign in our expenses and employment structure, or do we throw caution to the wind and hope that Washington will bail us out? The other, more popular option for many local governments, to raise taxes, would create a new housing downdraft and the much-feared'double-dip.' The results of increased property taxes during the tail end of this Great Recession could easily force us into Depression 2.0, which some economists believe will hit this Fall. <a href="http://pragcap.com/is-housing-already-double-dipping">Housing</a> and <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hiring-weak-in-may-except-for-census-workers-2010-06-04-83100">employment</a> are shaky and even the now expired tax credit has had limited effects. The mid-range properties (condos in Manhattan and second homes in the Hamptons costing from $750,000 to $1.5 million) are not helped by $8,000. <br />No one wants to tighten their belt. And, that includes the local governments who would rather pass on the bill for keeping municipal employees at work and continues local building projects. <br /><br />Watch for the vacant chair once the music stops.D. Clark MacPhersonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12022489208036655980noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20513814.post-51892532205030932762010-05-25T20:58:00.007-04:002010-05-25T22:16:19.202-04:00Depression 2.0<i>The future will be better tomorrow.</i><br />-- Dan Quayle (1947 - )<br /><br /><br />Those of you who are buying into the recovery underway may want to <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crash-is-dead-ahead-sell-get-liquid-now-2010-05-25">re-think your plans.</a> As has been mentioned here numerous times, there will be no recovery. We have been heading into a prolonged period of hyperdeflation, deflation or depression, depending upon whether it is you or your neighbor who is suffering the most. <br />A perfect example of the spin that has been spun was the announcement by GM part 2, that the automaker has paid back its TARP loans after reporting better sales. What was left out of that announcement was the fact that the payback was coming from another TARP account. That same game is played on Canal Street corners with shells and peas.<br /><br />The economic corruption, often created by political corruption, is now so pervasive that some do not worry about a “Black Swan.” It is a White Swan for some economists. Meaning, that all of the signs were obvious for the dot.com bust as well as the 2008 Lehman disaster, and that the big Kahuna is already on the horizon for all to see.<br /><br />We have the U.S. debt cost approaching 93% of GDP, an expiring $8,000 home-buying credit, the only mortgages being written by <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703880304575236030191182938.html?">Fanny Mae</a> (which is on life-support and in conservatorship) super-welfare in the name of extended-extended unemployment, and numerous States that are bleeding money. California is actually in worse shape than Greece with New Jersey and New York not far behind (New York’s projected deficit is $15 Billion for next year). If Wall Street is really a prognosticator of the future 6-12 months out, it sees an oncoming train in the tunnel. <br /><br />New York City is about to experience severe budget cuts. The Town of Southampton is still relatively clueless and has done nothing to reign in the bloated employee roster. While the Police have always been sacrosanct as regards budget cuts in the Hamptons, if that same methodology continues, there will be plenty of cops and no teachers. The U.S. itself is in serious trouble. One of the few states that depend upon taxpayers to support civil service pensions that are not fully funded, New York, will soon come to terms with an impossible situation. It’s like the Social Security System, which is broken – except New York can’t print money and the problem is not many years away but immediate.<br />While everyone has gotten used to looking to real estate and its associated taxes to cover the shortfalls, that particular party is over. Property values are still dropping as fast as they can increase the tax rate and homeowners with good credit are <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-homeowners-choose-to-default-on-loans-2010-05-17">starting to walk away</a> from insupportable values that are underwater. Fully 14% of all properties in this country are either in default or foreclosure. <br />As one reader-observer wrote:<br /><br /><i>“The govt. bailing out lenders, wall street, banks, car companies, insurance companies and paying bond holders 100% on the dollar while throwing it on top of the taxpayers back was the greatest heist of wealth in the history of the world. <br /><br />consult a lawyer first. Non Recourse vs. Recourse is important too. You will be able to save some money before you leave. Rent in the same area for 1/2 of what you pay for a mortgage. <br /><br />Get a secured credit card, keep inquiries low, open a small dollar car loan, pay off on time...build your credit back up. you will be able to get that loan in 2 years, Fannie in 4 or less. <br /><br />Don't let them fool you, there is no shame. Corporations do it all the time. Morgan Stanley just walked away from 1.3 billion loan....The shame comes from rewarding failure and horrible regulation antics of the SEC, FCC, FED, Treasury, Congress etc....”</i><br /><br />This brings us to some causes and few solutions. Goldman Sachs, the Grinch of Wall Street, is indicative of the actual greed that still takes $100 million a day out of the market in profits. They do this by virtue of “frontrunning” – essentially, by “seeing” an order coming in and both buying and then selling the trade to the incoming buyer at a profit in a nanosecond – with high-speed computers that are physically closer to the exchange computers. Mayor Motz of Quogue got 8 years in Federal prison for what Goldman Sachs does thousands of times a day. <br />This is a company that is one of many Wall Street vultures, like JPMorgan Chase, which has essentially destabilized countries (like <a href="http://online.barrons.com/article/SB126722853223352667.html">Greece</a>). Across this country, Villages, Towns, Counties and States have been devastated by the accounting maneuvers and credit default swaps associated with pension funds and financial instruments used to shore up bloated budgets. The same is true for their “expertise” which was exported around the world. <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/10151772.stm">The Eurozone</a> is now experiencing this and is heading into a downward spiral of debt via stimulus plans and printing money just as the U.S. has done. <br /><br />It will not work. <br /><br />Stimulus plans are predicated upon creating money out of nothing. No new assets are created which serve as the basis for money that is printed. And, the “full faith and credit” of the U.S. government is rapidly fading. We have phony money, which is inflationary, chasing ballooning deficits – because we want to continue on as before. That must end – and it will – badly.<br /><br />So far, $1.3 Trillion has been removed from available credit – used by small business and individuals – to continue to operate. Another $1.3 Trillion may soon vanish. And, if the banking reform is on track as planned, credit card companies will no longer be permitted to charge rate for credit cards and personal loans based upon where their main office is (the main reason why Citibank moved to South Dakota, for example). If banks can only charge the rates permitted by each individual state, instead of the rate permitted by the state where they are located, they will stop lending in states that have low interest-rate ceilings. If that happens, available credit will be further reduced.<br /><br />All of this matters because <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aFDEeYP2siyA">small businesses</a> are in big trouble. And, small business employs 65% of the workers in this country – employment that enables them to pay mortgages and buy goods. <br /><br />Simultaneously, with <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/libor-jump-underlines-rising-tensions-2010-05-25">the Libor rate rising</a> (which some mortgages are tied to) due to the cost of credit, many interest-only Alt-A loans reset this year and in 2011 and 2012. <br /><br />Put all of this together. <br /><br />Rising debt loads, contraction of small business, reductions in employment, reductions in credit-lines, rising “strategic” defaults on mortgages, mortgage resets, “welfare” mortgages through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that are subsidized toxic assets from bankrupt entities, and bread lines of “extended” unemployment – and the collapse of Wall Street. <br />We are in a brief moment of illusory improvement because it is springtime and seasonal employment as well as spending has blinded us.<br /><br />So, when do the Villages, Towns, States and Countries get the REALLY good news? Starting now -- and coming to a budget office near you by November. That’s when Depression 2.0 will visit.D. Clark MacPhersonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12022489208036655980noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20513814.post-90773732066659817752010-05-13T23:14:00.004-04:002010-05-13T23:15:27.138-04:00The Flash Crash<i>Buy on the rumor; sell on the news.</i><br />-- Wall Street Proverb<br /><br /><br />So here’s the deal. <br /><br /><a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/source-of-flash-crash-a-mystery-2010-05-12/02D473F5-3DE6-4C50-B95B-CED66FAA6A56">Flash trades</a> basically are handled by “bots” or computerized systems at close to the speed of light.<br />Buy or sell orders are handled in nanoseconds. In fact, orders are received and transacted faster if the physical location of the computer-generated trade is closer to the servers that exist for the Exchange – wherever that facility is actually located.<br />If the brokerage house/investment bank is closer to the Exchange, it’s possible to execute a trade faster than a local office of, say, Merrill Lynch, whose office could be in Iowa. The electronic time lag gives the edge to the broker near the Exchange. <br /><br />Goldman Sachs is known to have been making its money by having its systems closest to the action. Fully 70% of all trading is now flash trading. Goldman is said to account for nearly 48% of these trades and 35% of all trades. Flash trades enable the fastest “gun in the East” to get ahead of other orders and with a few million trades a day, makeing its money by executing in and out before its rivals. Investors who have stop loss orders are sold out and combined losses of hundreds of billions of dollars are estimated. Goldman makes money. In fact, Goldman regularly has $100 million days. <br /><br />Essentially, flash trades permits Goldman to see an order and choose its execution by inside information that is due to the faster (closer) proximity to the source of the information. The Flash Crash exposed this system.<br /><br />Mayor Motz of Quogue <a href="http://www.27east.com/story_detail.cfm?id=275084">was prosecuted</a> for this. Only, in his case it was called “Frontrunning.” Either Motz is innocent or Goldman is guilty. You can’t have it both ways. The only difference was speed.<br /><br />There you have it, folks.D. Clark MacPhersonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12022489208036655980noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20513814.post-26900240161100652462010-05-07T16:27:00.003-04:002010-05-07T16:34:40.759-04:00Political Notes 5.7.10<i>Democracy becomes a government of bullies tempered by editors.</i><br />-- Ralph Waldo Emerson (1803 - 1882) <br /><br />As the economy “improves,” the volatility in financial markets as well as the quality of life continues to deteriorate. The anomaly is not really inexplicable. What is missing is accurate reporting about what is going on. The government is desperate to have us believe that everything is on the mend. Despite the fact that “they are rioting in Africa,” or rather, in Greece, all is well. Except, that all is not well. <br /><br />The fact is that the VIX, the market volatility index, is spiking and Wall Street had a wild ride on Thursday – down nearly 1000 points intraday.<br /><br />The dismay sown by the Communists in Greece has risen to the level of a few fatalities. So, while a loan package via the IMF and Germany has been extended, the rest of the PIGS will soon arrive with their collective hands out. That’s when the fun will begin in the Eurozone – and that’s when it will start to really get interesting here in America. <br /><br />We have Goldman Sachs, an investment bank that took TARP money because it was “too big to fail” unlike Lehman -- which had a hand in bringing down Greece through its “creative accounting” and credit-default swaps. GS is now arguably facing a criminal investigation – which the populace has been calling for, for years. The Eurozone is facing collective bankruptcy or at default on its Sovereign debt and the U.S. is facing the possibility of a double-dip recession. The current improvement in employment numbers may, in fact, be the predicted temporary rise in spring fever/seasonal employment for Small Business. Schiller, the Yale economic guru, has predicted a huge coming increase in foreclosures brought on by Alt-A and Prime loans which will reset this year and have a chilling effect going forward. The fact that nearly one third of all homes in America are worth less that the mortgage is important. Those that bought homes with the $8,000 tax credit have been told that the value of their homes dropped before the ink was dry on the loan documents. <br />As a backdrop to all of this, local economies from States to Counties, to Cities, to Villages have become the antagonists towards the one source of energy that can help solve the crisis – Small Businesses in America.<br /><br />With fully 65% of all jobs emanating from this source, it has become the target instead of the savior for every civil service agency from the IRS, to the NY State Tax Department, the NYC Traffic Enforcement Bureau, and the Worker’s Compensation people, ending with Code Enforcement personnel, which initiate fines. The list of antagonists to the energy and drive needed by Small Business owners is growing as the deficits caused by the Wall Street/Banks/Mortgage Broker fiasco plays out. <br /><br />The credit default swaps and phony mortgage products that were signed off on by unsuspecting borrowers – fueling the CDO’s and SIV’s that were sold off to pension funds, small banks, Countries, Cities, States, Counties and Villages across the country – are now spawning legions of civil service employees looking to make up the losses while creating a justification for them to keep their own jobs. Soon government will have no subjects to collect from and Hannibal Lector will be in charge of the feast.<br /><br />This is being played out with the same tactics used by the King. <br /><br />Threaten and tax the people -- who are the victims. Why? It’s easier than going after the banks. It’s cheaper. And, because we can. <br /><br />But, why are we killing Small Business? It is the real Goose that laid the Golden Egg in America. This is the conundrum which begs a political answer in this country -- if we are to succeed.D. Clark MacPhersonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12022489208036655980noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20513814.post-52965938636115008792010-04-26T21:17:00.002-04:002010-04-30T18:04:07.685-04:00Let the Games Begin<i>Money is better than poverty, if only for financial reasons.</i><br />-- Woody Allen (1935- )<br /> <br />The St. Vincent’s saga has been a long and unpleasant one. One of the most essential institutions in the Downtown neighborhood and certainly the most necessary medical facility -- has been this hospital and emergency room. It would be hard to find a family that has not relied on the top flight Emergency Room and what some have called the best-kept medical secret in New York.<br /><br />Whether the doctors, nurses, attendants, ambulance personnel and other hospital employees will manage to weather this storm, is yet another story. But, from the AIDS epidemic, to the SARS scare, to the 9-11 disaster, the hospital and its staff has always been there for the community. My only complaint involved the parking. Other than that, they saved my son’s life. Literally.<br /><br />Lenox Hill, another important Manhattan hospital, is also reportedly in financial trouble. Upper East Side friends have reported long Emergency Room waits, only to spend hours on a gurney in the hallway waiting for attention. The large area of Manhattan without St. Vincent’s leads you away from where you live or where your doctors are affiliated. <br /><br />Where do you bring your kid in the middle of the night with a 105-degree temperature when an ice bath won’t do it? Where do you take a cab to when the headache pain is so intense that you fear an aneurism? To a new hospital with no doctor you know or who knows you?<br />At a kid’s party last week one of the 5 year-olds hurt his arm and not knowing where to go we had to drive in rush hour traffic to N.Y.U on 33rd Street. The Downtown mom did not know where to take him. Suppose it were a life-threatening condition?<br /><br />Forget the Rudin deal, forget the politicians (who also sometimes need a hospital in a hurry), and forget the community organizations that have taken both sides of the fierce opposition to St. Vincent’s development -- in order to save the hospital services. <br /><br />This is a deal that will only be saved by financial realities.<br /><br />So, the well-place rumor is that Mount Sinai is ready to do the deal and is in the wings behind curtain #1, pending resolution of the $700 million of St. Vincent’s in debt -- which the new potential suitors will not assume. Shortly, they may not have to, and will take over the hospital operation.<br /><br />Let’s hope so.D. Clark MacPhersonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12022489208036655980noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20513814.post-42643352349391105912010-04-23T08:03:00.002-04:002010-04-26T21:48:11.350-04:00A New Era<i>It’s never just a game when you’re winning.</i><br />-- George Carlin<br /><br />The election on Thursday evening at the Downtown Independent Democrats ushered in a new era for residents of lower Manhattan. One of Manhattan's most powerful political clubs, which had been headed by Sean Sweeney, brought in some new leadership. After an informative speech by Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, the voting took place. What was striking, was the sense of camaraderie among the members – a stark contrast to the previous elections, which had been marred by, attempts to pack the club and dislodge the leadership.<br /><br />Marc Ameruso challenged winner Jeanne Wilcke for the Presidency, but the other officers were largely unopposed.<br />However, while there was a sense of excitement, there was no rancor or divisiveness. The days of the Julie Menin and David Reck challenges to power appear to be over. He now has his own club with former District Leader Linda Belfer and Bill Love.<br /><br />Sweeney remains as Treasurer and spent most of the evening photographing luminaries. He had to borrow a camera because his own needed help. Having a Scotsman watching even his own money is probably a good sign.D. Clark MacPhersonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12022489208036655980noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20513814.post-75157359988813197722010-04-21T08:34:00.007-04:002010-04-26T21:48:50.595-04:00Just Desserts or Black Swan?<i>Men stumble over the truth from time to time, but most pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing happened.</i><br />-- Sir Winston Churchill (1874 - 1965)<br /><br />Trying to read between the tealeaves in this regenerating economy is no easy task. While the numbers appear to show that business is improving in certain sectors, employment has again dropped along with optimism and foreclosures have again surged in March.<br /><br />Improvements in certain real estate in some sections of the country have been noted. Condos in Manhattan have reportedly increased in both sales price and numbers of transactions. There is a market in Manhattan for higher-end apartments (above $3 million) and for Hamptons’ summer homes in higher price brackets (above $2 million) as well as very low priced housing (under $350,000). Most of these transactions follow a simple logic: FNMA mortgages are readily available up to $417,000 and for those happy souls with cash – the lack of mortgages is not a stumbling block. Discounts of 15 to 20 percent all across the board are common.<br /><br />Meanwhile the <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-foreclosure-filings-up-in-first-quarter-2010-04-15 ">foreclosure numbers</a> keep rising and more product comes on to the market. This ensures that home values will not appreciate to the top of the market (2006) until the year 2020 in many locations. Fully 25% of all homes are worth less than the mortgage on it. <br /><br />Businesses, on the other hand, are suffering. Unfortunately, small businesses employ more than 60 percent of the labor force. If loans are not available, most small businesses have few options: continue to operate at a loss, or fire a few people. When there are no people left to fire, the businesses must close.<br />Even the touted success that GM has paid back its government loans turns out to be like the <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/04/22/grassley-slams-gm-administration-loans-repaid-bailout-money/">shell game played on Canal Street.</a><br /><br />The hangover, of course, is that unpaid bills and taxes follow everyone around and it doesn’t matter that there is no business. With no financing, many small companies and their employees are enmeshed in a death spiral. The banks have seen to severe bankruptcy restrictions to prevent a sane exit from Dante’s new Inferno. <br />Even <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2010/SHOWBIZ/Movies/04/20/james.bond.film.postponed/index.html?eref=igoogle_cnn ">Hollywood is suffering.</a> <br />The government has attempted to deal with these issues in a variety of unsuccessful ways. Mortgage modifications are an acknowledged disaster, extended unemployment benefits has become the New Welfare, and rather than soften the crushing debt load for small businesses and individuals, 16,000 new IRS agents have been hired to tighten the noose. <br /><br />Goldman Sachs, that paragon of American Capitalism philosophy, was finally <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/18/business/18goldman.html?partner=rss&emc=rss.">charged with civil fraud</a> for working its magic<br /><br />After working diligently, sometimes hand-in-hand with JP Morgan Chase, to destabilize Villages, Counties and Countries with their credit-default swap derivatives – then perversely betting that their toxic handiwork would fail – they get a slap on the wrist from the SEC. Considering the degree of devastation caused by knowingly shopping their degraded bonds like Johnny Appleseed, while shorting them since they expected them to plummet, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE63I2NH20100419?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtopNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Top+News%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher">nothing short of scores of indictments</a> are in order. But, that will not likely happen. <br /><br />Here are some questions to be asked and answered: <br /><br />Were the banks complicit in creating mortgage products that <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE63G21Z20100417">they knew would implode</a> at some point<br /><br /> before they saturated the market through complicit mortgage brokers who created any and all documents to push them through – as recently came to light at <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wamu-conspiracy-or-collapse-2010-04-13">Washington Mutual?</a><br /><br />Were they designed to self-destruct from day one? And, were the securitized mortgage bonds created after harvesting the deadly mortgages back from brokers and then sold off – WHILE purchasing credit default swaps so that they could sit and wait for the bombs to go off?<br /><br />Were homeowners and real estate investors duped by the fine print into accepting mortgages and easy money that were doomed to fail no matter they did? <br /><br />Will the Goldman investigation spread to all of the other banks like JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/deutsche-bank-under-pressure-after-goldman-probe-2010-04-19">Deutche Bank</a> and a few that were decimated, like Bear Sterns, Lehman, Merrill Lynch and Washington Mutual? Given the fact that companies like Countrywide, Ameriquest, Long Beach Mortgage and thousands of other independent mortgage brokers were peddling dynamite – will an extensive investigation find out that all of this was planned and carefully executed since at least 2005?<br /><br />Given the fact that no borrower ever had the time to read an entire mortgage document at a closing, was this the industry’s dirty little secret about duping the public? <br />Will this pass because the government has <a href="http://247wallst.com/2010/04/17/goldman-sachs-may-have-known-about-charges-for-nine-months/">no stomach for it,</a> or will Europe force our hand with its own investigations into the matter.<br /><br />Then, there is the other dangling shoe in Europe -- which is the <a href="http://247wallst.com/2010/04/22/bad-books-cook-greece/">Greek financial fiasco.</a> Of course, this too was partly constructed<br />by Goldman's "creative accounting." How many more of these <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE63L20N20100422?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtopNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Top+News%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher">fiscal time-bombs</a> are buried within sovereign debt structures across Europe? <br /><br />Either of these problems is capable of morphing into a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory?">Black Swan</a>D. Clark MacPhersonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12022489208036655980noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20513814.post-50291099094780370482010-03-23T16:42:00.004-04:002010-03-23T16:53:28.897-04:00America’s Future<i>If you’re going through Hell, keep going.</i><br />-- Winston Churchill <br /><br />The recent past and not too distant future in America presents a set of challenges unknown to most generations that did not experience the Great Depression. For all practical purposes, the economic meltdown, which came to head with the failure of Lehman Brothers in 2008, was a defining moment in our history. At the same moment in time, the failure of Bear Sterns and Lehman were nearly joined by A.I.G., Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, as well. Only after hastily arranged “marriages” for Merrill Lynch, Countrywide, and a number of smaller investment firms, were the majors saved by Federal loan guarantees (JPMorgan acquisition of Bear), actual loans (A.I.G.), and essentially unlimited money via the Fed discount window – was the system propped up. <br /><br />As a result of bailing out the banks with TARP money, taking over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac via a conservatorship, and giving huge loans to certain “too big to fail” entities, we now have some stability. But, it is a stability that comes with a <a href="http://247wallst.com/2010/03/21/imf-warns-us-and-other-developed-nations-of-unprecedented-austerity/"> high price.</a><br /><br />That price is looming inflation from printing trillions of dollars, deficits that are thrown forward for nearly a decade and, ultimately, both higher taxes and a severely reduced standard of living. We either had to take the hit all at once with a worldwide Depression, or, slowly, and painfully, as a wasting away of a life of plenty. There is no mystery about it. We have been taking the money from one pocket and putting it in the other, rather than generating and producing like other countries. The derivatives market, all $700 Trillion of it, has assured us of this dubious future. <br />For at least the next decade, expect higher taxes; lower entitlement programs like social security and Medicare, a higher chronic unemployment, and a dollar that buys less. No retirement may become the price that we all pay for the excesses of Wall Street and the manipulations of the credit markets. We may not have accurately predicted a “double-dip” for the third quarter of this year but all of the non-governmental feedback is that many Americans are suffering, and will continue to suffer, as if we are indeed in the midst of The Great Depression II.D. Clark MacPhersonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12022489208036655980noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20513814.post-58733553567653902342010-02-23T21:05:00.003-05:002010-02-23T21:23:23.168-05:00President Mike?<i>New York now leads the world's great cities in the number of people around whom you shouldn't make a sudden move.</i><br />-- David Letterman (1947 - ) <br /><br />A funny thing happened on the way to Housing Court. A few people who have been very unhappy with Hi-rise Mike, who has been blamed for the over-development of Downtown, have made a slight turn to the right. Apparently, the Mayor has recently made a few moves that even the die-hard left of center Liberals have had to applaud. The most recent of these has been his stance on supporting affordable housing. In the wake of the Stuyvesant Town Court of Appeals ruling and drying up of investment capital for real estate projects, Bloomberg appears to have <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/22/nyregion/22housing.html?ref=todayspaper">gotten some religion </a>. Of course, you can always second-guess his motives – but, in this current economic Armageddon, which has erroneously been called The Great Recession, it pays to be thankful for the Ends, not dwelling on the Means.<br /><br />Considering the fact that Downtown has about had it with delays on rebuilding at the 9/11 site, <a href="http://www.observer.com/2010/real-estate/bloomberg-port-authority-put-wtc-money-or-‘just-get-out-way’">the Mayor’s assertive comments</a> are welcomed. <br /> <br /><br />As the Pragmatist philosopher William James might say, “What is the cash value of believing in” Bloomberg’s candidacy. The answer is – maybe, fairly high. <br />So, let’s assume that Bloomberg is obsessively micro-managing his White House aspirations with a good spin from his pr doctors. No politician alive is immune from wanting to reach higher office. That’s true of Stringer wanting to be Senator, Quinn for wanting to be Mayor, Squadron for possibly seeking national office, and Obama… well, wanting to stay where he is; Which is becoming less and less likely as we pussyfoot through the quagmire of Wars and Depression. It may be a time for a change. But, perhaps one that is weighed, deliberate, and cautious. <br /><br />Even his detractors credit Bloomberg with having high-quality management skills, especially financial acumen. And, even if there is a sizeable contingent of New Yorkers who would have preferred he had moved on – obstinacy and grandiosity (if that’s what it is) are not necessarily negative traits for a President. But, the ability to do an about-face on important social issues, not defense or security, is a valuable trait that he has kept hidden. Our economic condition, however, is a disaster and needs to be changed.<br /><br />The sensitivity (or practicality) to changing social winds and, perhaps, some sense of what New York and its dysfunctional State government needs from Washington – is a positive sign for New York City as well as Long Island. Bloomberg may have that. <br />With the assistance of <a href="http://www.observer.com/2010/politics/get-ready-bloomberg-2012">Frank McKay,</a> the still evolving “whiz kid” (not such a kid) from the Independence Party on Long Island as one of his political gurus, is also a promising sign that he’s mindful of the landscape. It goes a long way towards carrying this state and overcoming any Jewish or Billionaire provincialism.<br /><br />Only money, as he found out in the recent election for Mayor, is not going to do the trick. The ever-so-subtle shift in hubris after his recent close election, however, may have done the trick. He is appearing neither week, nor grandiose. <br />A combination of smart political moves and sensitivity to voter issues may yet lift Bloomberg onto the national scene this time around.D. Clark MacPhersonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12022489208036655980noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20513814.post-39578260460744867282010-02-11T13:06:00.010-05:002010-02-11T13:10:04.586-05:00Sign This!<i>The truth is more important than the facts.</i><br />-- Frank Lloyd Wright<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqe-Ly_TW1NMEZc7L61CUc_enAI2EWFzysMnDKYTBwUgmQd2z5aFgX8PVhVHrKHBbgu-4PHNUDisT_HE2Jh_L_3lxTb4M4EH3p172M5uOwzBeNuAE3MLMo5chvUSRH7Tjeisf-6A/s1600-h/CIMG0798.JPG"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 300px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqe-Ly_TW1NMEZc7L61CUc_enAI2EWFzysMnDKYTBwUgmQd2z5aFgX8PVhVHrKHBbgu-4PHNUDisT_HE2Jh_L_3lxTb4M4EH3p172M5uOwzBeNuAE3MLMo5chvUSRH7Tjeisf-6A/s400/CIMG0798.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5437049133683264418" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Apparently, the company doing the construction on the small parcel bordering Thompson/Watts/Broome streets is not even sure who ordered the job done. But SoHo is now the proud recipient of yet another useless structure whose only reason for existence – is to sport another “wrap-around” billboard. In fact, the race to create this 40-foot high tubular steel Lego set has pitched media companies against each other. The existing VanWagner sign, which has aided the media mess that is turning SoHo into a mini-Times Square, is apparently going to be partially blocked by the new addition. At least there’s some justice in this unfortunate event.<br /><br />Where once there was art, we now have Times Square in SoHo. Big media money has clearly taken over the political process.<br /><br />The Community Board is nowhere to be seen or heard from in this matter, despite the fact that its entire force was rallied to arrange the removal of one in Greenwich Village. It’s just another example of the political neglect that has severed SoHo from any meaningful support.D. Clark MacPhersonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12022489208036655980noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20513814.post-84513436312621399572010-01-10T21:36:00.006-05:002010-01-11T20:10:32.289-05:00Representing SoHo<i>Ninety percent of the politicians give the other ten percent a bad reputation.</i><br />-- Henry Kissinger (1923 - )<br /><br /><br />The recent election, which replaced Alan Gerson with Margaret Chin, comes on the heels of State Senator Squadron’s success in replacing the decades-long incumbency of predecessor Marty Connor. Both Squadron and Chin received strong support from SoHo. <br />Squadron is now the Social Services Committee Chair in the Senate. While they are all democrats, there are differences even among democrats. Squadron appears to be on a fast track bringing him to statewide and possibly nationwide attention – in part, no doubt, owing to his close relationship with Chuck Schumer. Margaret Chin is a community activist and her City Council membership is too new to evaluate. Both are responsive new leaders.<br /><br />Community Board #2 is, of course, another matter. For many years it was known as the Greenwich Village board despite the fact that, in theory, it also represents SoHo, Hudson Square, Chinatown and part of Little Italy and the East Village. Its members are appointed by the Borough President and various City Council members. It is certainly not an apolitical entity and is subject to very little scrutiny by the residents of its communities. Yet, it is supposed to be the entry-level forum for local democracy. The current Chair of Community Board #2 is Jo Hamilton.<br /><br />What we do know is the fact that Marty Connor and Alan Gerson along with some members of the Community Board, which had ignored their base in SoHo -- were removed or were "fired."<br /><br />From a SoHo perspective, then, the time has come to re-state some issues, which have not been resolved. It is important that we, once again, make those in political power aware of them.<br /><br />Billboards and Art.<br /><br />While there has been a recent uproar about a building on 12th street in Greenwich Village (Equinox Fitness Center) that has billboards plastered around its exterior, the decades-long effort to eliminate the unsightly signs in SoHo has been completely ignored. It’s no surprise that the Community Board, whose members are nominated and supported by elected politicians (who receive campaign contributions from the media companies which erect billboards), has dragged its feet.<br /><br />Speaker Vallone of the City Council pushed through legislation, which called for fines up to $25,000 for illegal billboards and severely restricted them. Of course, the Department of Buildings is a neutered agency and there is no enforcement unit to exercise the mandate – even if there was a will to do so. Which it does not have, courtesy of the Mayor.<br /><br />SoHo is an area that has thrived due to the history of art. An intelligent media person, a creative Department of Buildings Department manager or a community-minded bureaucrat in the Bloomberg administration – could propose the use of billboards to promote art or even display art.<br />Protection of the remnants of original community art has always been a dream of many “old-timers” in SoHo.<br />Attempts to have “Sunflower Park”, the location of the guerilla art sculptures which were unceremoniously ripped out of the asphalt at Broome Street and West Broadway after 40 years, renamed as Bob Bolles Park – has been ignored at all levels from the Community Board to the elected politicians. The art brought condo developments and upscale stores but nothing for its residents that made its place on the international map.<br />But, artistic minds like don’t exist in City government. Easier to bludgeon the residents into submission with beer ads or scantily clad, anexoric models on 50 feet high murals (as exist on Houston Street) – in open contravention of the laws, good sense or family values.<br /><br />Another looming fight, which has been played out numerous times at the Community Board, is the issue of liquor licenses. Currently, the Moondance Diner location is the focus of repeated attempts to bypass the community on the issue of commentary and review – a problem that we are all to familiar with in SoHo (Trump SoHo is a good example). <br />There is also the larger issue of rampant development allowed by virtue of the fact that SoHo is still considered an M-1, manufacturing district – allowing hotels to be built without any review. Entreaties to place a moratorium on hotels or “hotel-condos” have fallen on deaf ears.<br /><br />The fact that the liquor license committee chaired by Ray Lee and the Zoning committee chaired by David Reck, both of whom appear to suffer from the Stockholm syndrome, allow applicants to hold the community hostage to their whims. More community-minded professionals, such as Doris Diether, for example, (who formerly chaired Zoning) has been relegated to a back seat because she does not cater to developers' agendas. If the community is against a project, she finds a way to make their voices heard.<br />After years of complaints, which ultimately resulted in a few Town Hall hearings – we are back to square one with the same leadership issues and the same deaf ears at Community Board #2.<br /><br />In essence, SoHo has no power over its own future. Special interests control our fate. <br /><br />We call on our elected officials and Community Board #2 to celebrate art, change the way the media companies have changed our community for the debasing worst, and use some common sense in the treatment of SoHo – if they wish to remain.D. Clark MacPhersonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12022489208036655980noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20513814.post-6683397060986694912009-12-16T18:16:00.030-05:002009-12-17T14:10:42.237-05:00SoHo Real Estate<i>Patriotism is often an arbitrary veneration of real estate above principles.</i><br />-- George Jean Nathan (1882 - 1958)<br /><br /><br />The pace of construction has slowed Downtown. The new projects that are moving forward are primarily hotels. In part, this is due to the fact that little community review is needed when building as-of-right structures in a manufacturing zone. The Trump SoHo project is nearly completed and both the Tunnel Garage and Moondance Diner sites are in final stages of construction. <br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPs6h29k613EYysWUrzR11Q0iB9ox_KyRiLLvRxMnc2iTwXbt9bIxV9ZSLfsSOXjBkyi9qGVTwEngWXcHmgI4FIKep69Cd5XWJXMLflBOz5doyTkGA6qqj4PEq-ymmxExSeZ0vwA/s1600-h/CIMG0472.JPG"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPs6h29k613EYysWUrzR11Q0iB9ox_KyRiLLvRxMnc2iTwXbt9bIxV9ZSLfsSOXjBkyi9qGVTwEngWXcHmgI4FIKep69Cd5XWJXMLflBOz5doyTkGA6qqj4PEq-ymmxExSeZ0vwA/s400/CIMG0472.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5416258863643939746" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Tunnel Garage Condo<br /><br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7OY2xF-IbxTUwHPHRNPM9cVWpiyJzYEdduC8YSPtmpeDci6TQ-kYIJxnv8-pf4XsOJBCxvlP_BQNpGPQPvqMt964ZrEX2V41_O_tVw5OovvfE_pdkg5Aw-YXJQtuQv3bBsohUuw/s1600-h/CIMG0470.JPG"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 300px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7OY2xF-IbxTUwHPHRNPM9cVWpiyJzYEdduC8YSPtmpeDci6TQ-kYIJxnv8-pf4XsOJBCxvlP_BQNpGPQPvqMt964ZrEX2V41_O_tVw5OovvfE_pdkg5Aw-YXJQtuQv3bBsohUuw/s400/CIMG0470.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5416254935337953826" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Moondance Hotel<br /><br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgx19ZRI2IYS8xtmcAjD0R-OLej8HYtFVk_EzS8mBkpyEXKxVYPRmAllUs4umtBs6x-5HhuXT2hiwh1QGWFUNmTRatMvmrGdty0IbU0CSErRjBVoOi3zLJUZ6VkOKazDDpQu0sr6Q/s1600-h/CIMG0474.JPG"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 300px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgx19ZRI2IYS8xtmcAjD0R-OLej8HYtFVk_EzS8mBkpyEXKxVYPRmAllUs4umtBs6x-5HhuXT2hiwh1QGWFUNmTRatMvmrGdty0IbU0CSErRjBVoOi3zLJUZ6VkOKazDDpQu0sr6Q/s400/CIMG0474.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5416259080294033922" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />The condo project at 350 West Broadway is also nearly completed. <br /><br />Rumors abound as to the success of any of these projects due to the dearth of financing for construction. In the case of Trump SoHo, 350 West Broadway and the Tunnel Garage condo development – the truth about sales is hard to come by. The fact that there is a vacant lot for rent at 100 Varick Street where an eight story rental building had been approved – followed by rumors of yet another hotel – tells the <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLYZhnfoXOSk&pos=6.">story of commercial real estate and development.</a><br /><br />For tenants, the <a href="http://blogs.findlaw.com/courtside/2009/10/nyc-stuyvesant-town-and-peter-cooper-village-rent-regulation-decision-slams-owners.html">Stuyvesant Town decision at the Court of Appeals</a> is the big story. Tishman-Speyer gambled and lost. Why any company would believe that thousands of rent-stabilized tenants could be forced out of their homes is a serious misunderstanding of a city that is built on landlord-tenant litigation. <br />Essentially, those landlords who benefitted from J-51 tax abatements are now precluded from using the luxury decontrol option to force stabilized tenants from their homes. <br />This was a ploy used by many aggressive operators to force tenants out of their homes.<br />In one case, two real estate newcomers who are also dentists at a Varick Street location in SoHo (actually Hudson Square) have been using this method for many years. Among the many other dubious methods to harass stabilized tenants out of their homes luxury decontrol has been the choice of these characters – with the willing cooperation afforded by DHCR and Department of Buildings. These denuded agencies allow illegally operated buildings to use the courts in furthering landlord plans. The Mayor has intentionally weakened both of these agencies in order to evict legal tenants and further development in Manhattan. <br />Recent laws regarding harassment and abuse are seldom enforced requiring huge legal fees to be paid by tenants. The $5,000 fines for such behavior enacted by the City Council is not only a joke, but is rarely imposed. In reality, tenant protection is a figment of the City Council’s imagination, in spite of the laudable efforts by Speaker Quinn. If you, as a tenant, pay legal fees and cannot pay rent at the same time – you lose one way or the other. <br /><br />The Court of Appeals ruling, however, recently eliminated luxury decontrol in any building that was afforded J-51 tax relief for the landlord. Further, current market rate tenants who live in apartments, which formerly were stabilized – and were previously converted to market rate – may now be restored to stabilization. This is true regardless of whether the current market rate tenant occupied the apartment at the time it was converted from a stabilized status. In addition, any rent paid which was higher than what was once the registered stabilized rent – can be retrieved from the landlord (with treble damages) by the tenant.D. Clark MacPhersonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12022489208036655980noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20513814.post-1552451137008916162009-12-02T11:38:00.030-05:002009-12-02T23:16:17.847-05:00Political Lessons<i>Times have changed. It's not like the Old Days, when we can do anything we want. A refusal is not the act of a friend. If Don Corleone had all the judges, and the politicians in New York, then he must share them, or let us others use them. He must let us draw the water from the well. Certainly he can present a bill for such services; after all... we are not Communists.</i><br />-- Don Barzini (The Godfather)<br /><br /><br />With Goldman Sachs bankers reportedly <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=ahD2WoDAL9h0">applying for gun permits</a> to protect themselves from an enraged populace, its not surprising that there is some anger associated with playing the game of politics. As JFK once said, “Politics is the only game for adults.” <br />The game has evolved into a stage from which to pontificate upon “The Truth,” whatever that is. The <a href="http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2009/11/jury_in_joseph_bruno_trial_goe.html<br />">trial of Joe Bruno,</a> former leader of the State Senate, for example, shows us that retribution is usually is the order of the day – a tragic-comedy replete with rumors of rogue State Police units, political payoffs and favors. <br /><br />But, what about the game within the game? What about the casino of supporting a politician in hopes of currying favor at some future time? And, what about the obverse of asking for support in order to get elected in the first place?<br />It’s like the Emperor’s New Clothes. Few will talk about it on record and those who do, give a stock answer that “You should support and vote for the best candidate, period. That is its own reward. Expect nothing in return. The best person winning, your candidate is the success you should want – and nothing more.” <br /><br />Okay, that sounds good. It has a good ring to it.<br /><br />And, in fact, sometimes the success of a particular candidate really is so important that it’s close to the truth.<br />Downtown, the success of Margaret Chin as City Council Member, and the unexpected victory by <a href="http://sohojournal.com/content/soho-politics-cyrus-vance-jr-candidate-manhattan-district-attorney">Cy Vance as D.A.</a> were two notable examples of people who were critical to a progressive agenda for SoHo and sister communities – as well as Manhattan, in general.<br /><br />Bloomberg is still a cipher to some – because his skills have been overshadowed by a seemingly dictatorial manner of governing that were only re-emphasized by the <a href="http://www.observer.com/2008/politics/mastro-case-more-bloomberg">term-limits fiasco.</a> However, he is an intelligent and able administrator, who seems more in tune with Aeschylus than Downtown residents. <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/money/2007/09/20/2007-09-20_cheers_jeers_for_donald_trumps_soho_cond.html">Trump SoHo,</a> the <a href="http://www.sohojournal.com/content/updated-realize-hudson-rise-benefit-success">DSNY garage on Spring Street,</a> the overdevelopment, the neutering of the Department of Buildings (no landlord scrutiny and no tenant support), the dangerous and over-the-top <a href="http://www.sohojournal.com/blogs/items/mean-streets-soho">bike lanes</a> in SoHo and the failure to reign-in billboard proliferation – are just a few examples of resident dissatisfaction with his Imperial style.<br />There is no doubt that his friendship will further empower Frank McKay, noted political genius of the Hamptons who heads the Independence Party. That friendship will now be a lot closer – since Thompson clearly would have won the election without McKay’s support, in spite of the $120 million Bloomberg spent. <br /><br />For others who ran, for those who did not pay enough attention to their base of support, it was a bleak lesson. Alan Gerson, thought of as a “nice guy” (he actually is) counted on Greenwich Village voters but burned his bridges with the Downtown Independent Democrats (SoHo’s powerful political club) -- and was turned out of office. Rumors have it that Gerson angered the President of D.I.D., Sean Sweeney and other important members, by claiming that he no longer needed the club’s support. He was warned by Sweeney that such a point of view would cost him the next election. Despite being an incumbent and having broad community support, as a result of his rejection of D.I.D., Gerson lost his bid for re-election. Activists were so antagonistic towards Gerson that they went so far as to create a website with the slogan ABG – anyone but Gerson. The lesson should not be lost on others.<br />But, as Monty Python’s famous line goes: <a href="hhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CSe38dzJYkY">'No one ever expects the Spanish Inquisition.'</a> Once elected, many politicians have brushed off their former supporters. It is a familiar gripe.<br /><br />The recent defection by David Reck, Bill Love and Linda Belfer in a bid to form a new political club, followed on he heels of the Gerson loss. <br /><br /><br />Described by Sweeney as the Downtown United Democrats (DUDS), the success of this, as yet unnamed group, has completed the regeneration of D.I.D. After having foiled an attempted coup by Reck and Community Board #1 Chair Julie Menin to take over the club, the exit of members who opposed Sweeney will now be complete. He described it as excising a malignant tumor without having to operate. <br />With 200 members, D.I.D. is now poised to become THE downtown political club. The transitional period is underway and new leadership will be reinforcing its image. Jeanne Wilcke, Adam Sivera, Jim Stratton and Pete Gleason will be joining Sweeney.<br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirjVldaDT4OErWp_MvpwLF9GYkqd1Xy4IRb4n4zAMy5Pt5yXGb_mIFK0RuVOc0ckG26ullp-gqjaQAMQKikTbhXFA60Fors5UVThCDyhI8wcM3ucdVn0mNbdjP1GeComZqe1pYcw/s1600-h/JKW+pic+crop+5+0709.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 267px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirjVldaDT4OErWp_MvpwLF9GYkqd1Xy4IRb4n4zAMy5Pt5yXGb_mIFK0RuVOc0ckG26ullp-gqjaQAMQKikTbhXFA60Fors5UVThCDyhI8wcM3ucdVn0mNbdjP1GeComZqe1pYcw/s400/JKW+pic+crop+5+0709.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5410726490564036274" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><i>Jeanne Wilcke</i><br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqNe1YPEIWeGPw0HDLj8YHvSmolJN7cYgZSqvHHsRfFHzegnpYXnCFOHFGQK3ZFLCJDaR2fgirxPDgRlx6b8Zz5gbNP7FH3aw5DsB2eQFHxt2ogMYXfie7Q7psy9PpvASAY1Z4cw/s1600-h/adam.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 150px; height: 125px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqNe1YPEIWeGPw0HDLj8YHvSmolJN7cYgZSqvHHsRfFHzegnpYXnCFOHFGQK3ZFLCJDaR2fgirxPDgRlx6b8Zz5gbNP7FH3aw5DsB2eQFHxt2ogMYXfie7Q7psy9PpvASAY1Z4cw/s400/adam.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5410732520002729106" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><i>Adam Silvera</i><br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQdn2Pce6GfeKw2_wcpndLPCB6Q1NaiebGGa1CKhh85Ef-OcMBuXw8V_NV54f_IO8irxU3agDCzOi1s9qSj4HQ0fil16Yau9M5Mwhr4dP3XLgnNtH3ywzukgpsq7P9YX6aWvWLoA/s1600-h/gleason.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 300px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQdn2Pce6GfeKw2_wcpndLPCB6Q1NaiebGGa1CKhh85Ef-OcMBuXw8V_NV54f_IO8irxU3agDCzOi1s9qSj4HQ0fil16Yau9M5Mwhr4dP3XLgnNtH3ywzukgpsq7P9YX6aWvWLoA/s400/gleason.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5410726760316765634" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><i>Pete Gleason</i><br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4Bc7nY0U14I4FpQaayNtuYnKkZWLuS_5lfLSCVBMyeADfAObE946ZJnxlM860ja0Fl0HuPVfz6oru_UCkQ9UgRjZMBDEB2kMW9j4dcuFk2kZ83KZHs2TMLv7xRHiiZEPpCT8UqA/s1600-h/SeanSweeney.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 300px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4Bc7nY0U14I4FpQaayNtuYnKkZWLuS_5lfLSCVBMyeADfAObE946ZJnxlM860ja0Fl0HuPVfz6oru_UCkQ9UgRjZMBDEB2kMW9j4dcuFk2kZ83KZHs2TMLv7xRHiiZEPpCT8UqA/s400/SeanSweeney.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5410764253472925090" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><i>Sean Sweeney</i><br /><br />In this game, politicians need to pay more attention to the desires of leaders who DO speak for the community. Those who work tirelessly for the benefit of others -- as well as themselves -- must now start making the needs of the community much clearer – and holding candidates accountable for their promises AFTER they are elected.<br /><br />Thus far, that has been conveniently forgotten.D. Clark MacPhersonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12022489208036655980noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20513814.post-17687456909903188712009-11-13T11:39:00.015-05:002009-11-13T14:06:02.094-05:00Rumors<i>In politics, an absurdity is not a handicap.</i><br />-- Napoleon Bonaparte (1769 - 1821)<br /><br />Apparently, District Leader David Reck and Linda Belfer along with Bill Love have circulated a memo stating that they intend to form a new political club downtown. Politicians take note. The memo, written ostensibly by Bill Love, states: <br /><br />“Our new club will have instant credibility with elected officials and other political leaders for several reasons, not the least of which will be the caliber of the people involved, such as you.”<br /><br />The real reason for this foray is a certain degree of animosity between Reck and D.I.D. President Sean Sweeney, which has evolved over the last couple of years. Neither are low-key individuals and both have supporters as well as detractors among politicians and residents. <br />The boiling point seems to have been reached during an alleged attempt to pack the club by Reck associates last year – in order to remove Sweeney as President. It was believed that Julie Menin, Chair of Community Board 1, supported this move.<br /><br />Starting a political club is not all that difficult. It just takes an enormous amount of time, energy and money. Unless, of course, the effort is being bankrolled by others. Maintaining a level of respect, developing a history and managing to be taken seriously by political candidates are the hard part. The notion of “instant credibility,” is a dubious one. <br />Of course, there is some question as to the validity of political clubs, in general. But, that’s another issue. <br />Reck is smart and works hard – especially, at petitioning. <br /><br />Anger management is his Achilles Heel. <br /><br /><iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.blogger.com/video.g?token=AD6v5dw8UHhyPYWYI03etq46QPqpouGjpBzC2XJV_yVUFC8oUttk7o9f3hBJCeH05lzww2ZpDW7F0XiP_sU' class='b-hbp-video b-uploaded' frameborder='0'></iframe><br /><br /><br />No doubt, this decision is due to frustration over Sweeney’s near-impenetrable Presidency at D.I.D. But, strong leaders manage political structures with sometimes-controversial personalities. That applies as much to Sweeney as it does to Reck. <br />This will play out in one of two ways, however: <br />D.I.D. might be weakened by a Reck and Belfer departure or, D.I.D. will become stronger as the people who are dissatisfied leave. Betting favors the latter.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2miUVWrmP_W2a8zxTBuY40Y_ktx7h0nEC2ctdra5U9paXGpiaeh-PwhC_SbOpMQjp6E_gLNeiABZeqIE-rmxFOPzyIToRBjNx6vOarhENaDmkIt_1691DheAy4dMNsW1l3YBpAQ/s1600-h/trump.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 300px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2miUVWrmP_W2a8zxTBuY40Y_ktx7h0nEC2ctdra5U9paXGpiaeh-PwhC_SbOpMQjp6E_gLNeiABZeqIE-rmxFOPzyIToRBjNx6vOarhENaDmkIt_1691DheAy4dMNsW1l3YBpAQ/s400/trump.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5403634710692697538"></a><br />It was today reported that Trump SoHo has entered foreclosure. This could not be confirmed but a Community Board member was reported to be the source of this rumor. SoHo Alliance Executive Director, Sean Sweeney who leads a group suing over the project was not aware of this rumor and could not confirm it. So, no dancing in the streets at this point, folks, since it is difficult to tell whether this is wishful thinking for residents of SoHo, or, is indeed a fact.D. Clark MacPhersonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12022489208036655980noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20513814.post-32895604625522231972009-11-02T13:12:00.008-05:002009-11-02T20:47:00.110-05:00SoHo Election Views<i>Voter early and vote often.</i><br />-- Al Capone<br /><br />In SoHo the general election boils down to only the race for Mayor. Chin (City Council 1st District) won the primary, as did Cy Vance (D.A.) and Quinn (City Council 3rd District). In Manhattan, a completely Democratic town, the Primary winner takes the brass ring. The only Republican, in form and function, was Leslie Crocker Snyder for D.A. She lost to Vance who won handily.<br /><br />Yetta Kurland challenged Christine Quinn for her City Council seat and did surprisingly well since Quinn, the Speaker, came away with only 52% of the vote. Her political acumen may lead her to work more closely with the community but only time will tell. On the horizon for that slot is Kurland, if she runs again, Brad Hoylman (former Chair of Community Board 2) and Andrew Berman of the Greenwich Village Society for Historical Preservation. The latter has impeccable bona fides.<br /><br />Margaret Chin will have a lot on her plate since, by all accounts, Alan Gerson was less than a tiger in his City Council position for eight years who, seen in the Village recently, was less than friendly. The tricky problems of vendors who line Canal Street with valises full of fake designer wares, ill-conceived bike lanes on Grand Street and other Village thoroughfares, the assault and harassment on tenants’ rights and trampling of communities by developers – will all be challenging issues facing the new City Council member.<br /><br />Cy Vance, as the new Manhattan D.A. promises to be a breath of fresh air – taking over from the retiring District Attorney. He promises to build upon the long and successful reign, which was the innovative and progressive career of Bob Morgenthau. While he has the knowledge and compassion of a defense attorney, Vance also has the acumen of a prosecutor whose role it is to protect the citizenry from violent crime.<br /><br />The Mayoral race between Mike Bloomberg and Bill Thompson is much simpler than it seems for most people. It boils down to the simple matter of whether voters want a benevolent or benign father figure telling them what to do and think – and can buy that role – or, whether voters, as adults are electing their political leaders. The term limits fiasco was foisted upon the public and Thompson has continuously pointed out that the Emperor has no clothes. There is no other issue.D. Clark MacPhersonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12022489208036655980noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20513814.post-8809728541294492122009-10-19T18:16:00.007-04:002009-10-26T13:40:59.805-04:00Eye of the Storm<i><br />The surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us.</i><br />-- Bill Watterson (1958 - )<br /><br /><br />While the economy is improving according to our dear leaders, ominous signs have appeared to contradict the theory that the worst is over. The only indicators that support improvement are the <a href= "http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-dow-doesnt-represent-the-economy-2009-10-14">stock market</a><br />and the broad effects of stimulus packages and propped-up consumer spending like the “cash for clunkers” program and tax credit for home buyers. Those programs and the real state of the economy are merely smoke and mirrors. It’s like taking money out of one pocket (taxpayers) and putting it in another (consumers) to show improved economic activity. <br />Who are we kidding?<br /><br />As one person commented on a financial site:<br /><br /><i>When they talk about recovery, they do not mean you me or the average taxpayer. We are only required to pay taxes and suffer in silence. <br />Recovery is meant for Wall Street, the banksters and their bonuses. <br />That is what is meant by recovery.</i><br /><br /><br />There are a few major components that point to where we are and where we are going. Credit is contracting rapidly and banks lend to each other, or well-connected parties, after borrowing from the Fed. Wall Street has improved its balance sheets (on paper) and has survived with government money and the “carry trade.” Thus, with borrowed money to conduct business – $16 Billion is available at Goldman Sachs – for bonuses.<br />Banks and Wall Street have also survived the mortgage crisis by selling the toxic paper they needed to pump out for huge fees, to the government, and consequently applying for more Federal money when their <a href= "http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2009/10/re-goldman-sachs-earnings.html">balance sheet gets dicey.</a><br /><br /> One commenter writes about the situation like this:<br /><br />“Bloomberg reporting that Crooked Timmie's shop, and Give-away Ben's shop, are populated by "advisors" that made millions and millions and millions of dollars from Goldman Sucks, Bank of Criminals, JP Morgan, etc. etc... Obama, just like Bush, and Crooked Timmie, just like Paulson, and Give-away Ben, are working as hard as they can to benefit their buddies on wall street... If they had taken those trillions and given it to main street, the recession would have been over long ago, along with the cancerous vipers on wall street... But the rich take care of the rich... the rest of us can ‘go pound sand’.” <br /><br />Underlying all of this is massive unemployment. As <a href= "http://moneynews.newsmax.com/financenews/whitney_credit_collapse/2009/10/13/271673.html">credit evaporates,</a> companies file for bankruptcy, commercial real estate collapses and people are fired, deflation sets in. Downsized companies need fewer supplies, fewer workers and smaller rental spaces. It is entropy in action. <br /><br /><br />All of this sets the stage for futile attempts to stop this process but only manages to put a finger in the dike. Even if there is a temporary halt to the process, hyperinflation will set in and create an even bigger bubble than the supposed subprime mortgage fiasco. <br /><br />What we are facing now is the possibility of a <a href= "http://www.marketwatch.com/story/housing-could-take-double-dip-down-in-2010-2009-10-13">double-dip recession </a><br /> that might turn into a Depression starting in 2010. No one knows whether that will happen, but a 50% increase in the stock market within 6 months should clue everyone in to the erratic nature of our economic situation. Simultaneously, millions are unemployed (with more on the way), <a href= "http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-foreclosure-filings-up-in-3rd-quarter-2009-10-15">foreclosures are increasing</a> (the so-called “prime” loans), home prices continue to drop, companies file for bankruptcy at an accelerated rate and credit evaporates precipitously. <br /><br /><br />When 20% of all <a href= "http://www.marketwatch.com/story/keeping-up-with-an-avalanche-of-troubled-mortgages-2009-10-15">homeowners</a> who DO pay their mortgage and face possible job loss – and who currently owe more than they are worth (and values are still declining) – the prognosis for stabilization is 5 to 10 years away. <br /> A lot can happen in a decade and much of it is pretty.<br /><br />If the stock market has another major decline as many are predicting and housing continues to drop in value – coinciding with another modest increase in the price of oil to $100 or $125 per barrel – ALL bets are off.D. Clark MacPhersonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12022489208036655980noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20513814.post-52376911023562696492009-09-24T13:25:00.003-04:002009-09-24T13:27:01.726-04:00The People have Spoken<i>When the eagles are silent, the parrots begin to jabber.</i><br />--Sir Winston Churchill<br /><br />Last Tuesday’s Primary was an eye-opener for many of us Downtown.<br />The most watched contests were the CD1, CD3 City Council races and, more important the run for District Attorney.<br /><br /><a href="http://sohojournal.com/content/margaret-chin-wins-big-district-1-democratic-primary">Margaret Chin,</a> an activist who has supported tenants in their confrontations with landlords and developers, won the CD1 seat handily. <br />She defeated incumbent Alan Gerson overwhelmingly. While she was not as involved in the heated controversies, as was candidate Pete Gleason, it’s clear that Gerson was damaged by the perception that his campaign had started to lose control. The loss of matching funds, the delays in being listed on the ballot and the overhang from his unpopular support of term-limit extension, were fatal to Gerson’s re-election.<br />While there was increasing rancor over the perception by many activists that Alan had ignored their community needs, the handling of his campaign was really the nail in his political coffin.<br />As always, Alan is a “nice guy.” We wish him well.<br /><a href="http://sohojournal.com/content/pete-gleason-statement-why-negative-often-mistaken-truth">Pete Gleason</a> always was a stand-up guy in the community. He fought hard and has supported the community as a fireman, police officer and attorney. <br />We look forward to his next move. For the moment his plans involve a return to his legal practice.<br /><br />The CD3 race was a tough one for many. Quinn has baggage but is seen as a strong citywide City Council Speaker. Her mistakes lie with how her Downtown district constituents view her efforts for them. There are <a href="http://www.politickerny.com/5360/barron-wants-quinn-replaced">political moves afoot,</a> however, to remove her Speakership. <br /> <br />Kurland fought a good fight and her challenge to Quinn was a closer call than one would have been expected. The message here is that even a strong Speaker may want to consider community outreach that is perceived as a genuine attempt to mend fences. <br />Especially, if Quinn plans to run for Mayor. The support of Bloomberg over Thompson (which she has alluded to by her refusal to commit), in light of the negative view of the term-limits fiasco that caused many Council members their seats, is clearly a mistake. Gerson can vouch for that.<br /><br />Many clubs and Downtown activists supported Richard Aborn for D.A. He is seen as a progressive who wanted to make real changes in the criminal justice system. <br />Leslie Crocker-Snyder was perceived as a conservative, and despite the fact that she reached out to women (calling on her ostensible strong support) and heavily criticized Vance; it was not good enough to seal the deal. She clearly had the advantage going into the race – especially, on the heels of a better than 40% share of the vote against Morgenthau from 4 years ago.<br />As Vance pulled up in the polls, the strident content of her message started to scare a few people. Not just the criminals.<br />Vance will be a breath of fresh air, especially in his desire to build on Morgenthau’s successes and focus on the major problem of recidivism.<br /><br />Cy Vance’s campaign was handled very well. His momentum grew slowly and his message of change did not criticize Morgenthau but alluded to the fact that he wanted to further expand certain efforts. Of course, it did not hurt that “Morgy” heavily supported him. Or, that the Kennedys endorsed him. Even <a href="http://sohojournal.com/content/gloria-steinems-top-10-reasons-vote-cy-vance">Gloria Steinem</a> helped get out the vote.<br /><br />Gradually, the well-placed media blitz garnered endorsements from the NY Times, Daily News and NY Post. Even downtown’s prescient niche publication, The SoHo Journal, featured his images and interview with a <a href="http://sohojournal.com/content/spring-2009">Warhol-styled cover reproduction</a> – the magazine’s first cover featuring a politician.<br /><br />Ultimately, Vance’s easy manner, firm stance on crime and innovative ideas, seeped into the voter’s consciousness and took hold. He was elected in a landslide.D. Clark MacPhersonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12022489208036655980noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20513814.post-20631240686037042942009-09-14T14:14:00.006-04:002009-09-15T22:05:49.346-04:00Where the Buck Stops<i>When you come to a fork in the road, take it.</i><br />-- Yogi Berra (1925 - )<br /><br /><br />We have reached the point of no return on the final round of Downtown politics. For a Democratic town, the Primary is THE election. The most relevant for us are the District 1 and District 3 City Council (the two affecting SoHo) and Manhattan District Attorney races.<br /><br />Essentially, the City Council races are the Gerson/Gleason/Chin contest (CD1), the Quinn/Kurland face-off (CD3) and the Manhattan District Attorney Vance, Aborn, Snyder contest. <br /><br />Calling any of these races is next to impossible.<br /><br />Quinn has suffered from some serious mudslinging and rancor from community activists over the DSNY garage, the Trump SoHo behemoth and disaffection from her support of the term-limits rollback. Support of tenants, as a bedrock of her community support has been tepid since she is perceived as someone who has failed to really target the landlord games that still permit stabilized tenants to be evicted using the “lawsuit ploy” and does not at all protect market rate tenants from gouging once their one or two year lease expires. Tenants who complain do not get a lease renewal.<br />However, Quinn is an able politician who knows how to navigate in a dangerous environment. Despite the accusations regarding “Slushgate” it is a fantasy to suppose that Council funds (or those in any other elected office) are not part of the risk-reward system that politics is about. Running a campaign, not to mention living your life, under possible indictment takes a strong, dedicated person. Toughness counts for something, even if you don’t agree with the person who is running.<br />Kurland, on the other hand, is untested but has gained substantial support from community activists who want a clean sweep. Her bona fides seem to stem from gay rights and a willingness to confront issues important to the community. Her support has substantially grown in recent weeks and those who have written her off initially are now thinking twice.<br /><br />The Gerson, Gleason, Chin contest is another race that is impossible to call.<br />While <a href="http://www.politickerny.com/5259/gerson-debate-term-limits-spoilers">Gerson</a> is the incumbent, his growing unpopularity has only been upstaged by a badly managed campaign. To have lost matching funds and a place on the ballot for a time shows a massive lack of competence – at least about running a contested election. Gerson, by his decisions, seems to have been massively unprepared for a challenge. Not without basis contenders, such as Pete Gleason, have pointed out that this alone shows that Gerson is not qualified to run again. Most of the verbal fisticuffs have occurred between Gerson and Gleason (who backed away from challenging Alan in the last election) and that has not been lost on the minds of voters in the Village, SoHo and Tribeca. Gleason has confronted the incumbent and there is no question that he has damaged Gerson, whose prior popularity has been based up being known as “a nice guy.”<br /><br />Margaret Chin really is a “wild” card. While having been criticized as somewhat provincial due to her base in Chinatown, her housing activist background is clearly her community-based “ticket-to-ride.” Chin’s often touted 6000 vote base may, in fact, carry her over the top.<br />But, this race could go in any direction.<br /><br /><br />The Power race, of course, is the District Attorney race. <br /><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lYiFyU5ie24">Aborn</a> has been the early favorite Downtown. He is seen as a strong, progressive politician who is attractive and falls on the right side of liberal ideals for what we want in Justice.<br /><a href="http://www.politickerny.com/5274/leslie-crocker-snyder-woman-glass-ceiling">Snyder</a> is seen by many who support the “woman” card as a guaranteed winner. She has backed off from her previous position, which seemed to support the death penalty and according to her campaign mentor, Jim McManus, is a tough judge who will win the election. According to him, she got the hard cases from Morgenthau and will be a tough, but fair, D.A.<br /><a href="http://sohojournal.com/content/gloria-steinems-top-10-reasons-vote-cy-vance">Cy Vance</a> has been the object of a few jabs by Snyder and his campaign surged within the last several months. His progressive agenda is similar to Aborn’s and is popular Downtown.<br />The fact that the New York Times, New York Post and Daily News have endorsed him has been something of a surprise.<br /><br />This race cannot be called, either. <br /><br />Vote in the Primary on September 15th!D. Clark MacPhersonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12022489208036655980noreply@blogger.com1